Jordan Thompson vs Adrian Mannarino

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Jordan Thompson vs Adrian Mannarino — US Open 2R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 2

🧠 Form & Context

Jordan Thompson (No. 58, age 31)

• 🇦🇺 Gritty Aussie competitor, thrives on effort and fight in Slam settings.
• 📊 2025: 12–11 overall, with 5 wins at majors (AO R2, Wimbledon R16).
• 🔥 USO 1R: Beat Corentin Moutet 6–2, 6–4, 1–6, 6–3.
• 🏟️ US Open history: R16 in 2024, his career-best Slam run.
• ⚠️ Fitness question: Multiple retirements this season (Rome, Queen’s, Wimbledon) raise durability concerns in best-of-five.

Adrian Mannarino (No. 77, age 37)

• 🇫🇷 Crafty lefty veteran, best known for grass runs but finding rhythm again on hard.
• 📊 2025: 29–30 overall, 10–12 on hard.
• 🔥 Summer swing: 8 wins since July, incl. Cincy victories over Machac & Paul. USO R1: beat Griekspoor 7–5, 6–4, 6–0.
• 🏟️ Slam résumé: 60th Slam main draw; USO best = R16 (2013). Has only won back-to-back Slam matches 13 times in career.
• ⚠️ Season split: Dire 2–14 start on hard in 2025, but revived confidence on grass and carried it into New York.

Head-to-Head: Mannarino leads 6–4. Most wins came on grass, but he dominated their latest meeting in Cincinnati (6–2, 6–2).

🔍 Match Breakdown

Baseline shapes: Thompson’s physical forehand grinding vs Mannarino’s flat, redirecting lefty strokes. The Frenchman’s unique tempo disrupts rhythm-heavy players like Thompson.

Recent context: Cincy drubbing showed Mannarino exploiting Thompson’s inconsistencies. Thompson thrives more at Slams, but that loss is fresh.

Stamina & health: Thompson’s effort level is high, but his tendency to break down physically makes extended rallies risky. Mannarino’s steadier conditioning at this stage may prove decisive.

Momentum & confidence: Mannarino rides one of his “purple patches” where patterns flow. Thompson is scraping for form but uses Slams to elevate.

🔮 Prediction

Expect a more competitive match than their Cincinnati clash, but Mannarino’s precision and lefty craft tilt the balance. Thompson could steal a set with aggression, yet over four or five, the Frenchman’s steadiness and recent form should prove superior.

Pick: Mannarino in 4 sets — Thompson fights but Mannarino’s edge in match-up comfort and health carries him through.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Head-to-Head: 6–4 Mannarino (incl. 2025 Cincinnati rout).
• Baseline style: Thompson = heavy, physical forehand; Mannarino = flat angles, disrupt tempo.
• Serve consistency: Even — neither dominates behind serve, breaks decide flow.
• Physical durability: Edge Mannarino (Thompson’s frequent retirements a risk).
• Mental lift: Thompson raises Slam level, but Mannarino’s current patch trumps.