Aryna Sabalenka vs Polina Kudermetova

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Sabalenka vs Polina Kudermetova — US Open 2R Preview

WTA US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Aryna Sabalenka (No. 1, age 27)

• 🇧🇾 World No. 1 and defending champion in New York.
• 📊 2025: 52–10 overall, 27–5 on hard courts.
• 🔥 Slam season: AO finalist (l. Keys), RG finalist (l. Gauff), Wimbledon SF (l. Anisimova).
• 🏟️ US Open record: SF or better in last 4 appearances; champion in 2024.
• 💡 Game: Big serve + overwhelming baseline aggression, thrives under the Ashe lights.
• ⚠️ Note: No title since Madrid (May) despite multiple deep runs — hunger is high.

Polina Kudermetova (No. 67, age 22)

• 🇷🇺 Younger sister of Veronika, making strides but inconsistent.
• 📊 2025: 16–19 overall, 15–11 on hard.
• 🔥 USO R1: Advanced after Parrizas Diaz retired early — first main-draw Slam win of her career.
• 🏟️ Slam record: 0–4 in R1 before this week.
• 💡 Game: Solid ball striker, can hang in rallies but lacks a true kill shot.
• 📉 Season trend: Brisbane finalist in January, then a 10-match losing streak mid-season.

📜 Head-to-Head

• 2025 Brisbane Final: Sabalenka def. Kudermetova 4–6, 6–3, 6–2.
• H2H: Sabalenka leads 1–0.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Serve & power: Massive first-strike edge Sabalenka. Kudermetova lacks the defensive toolkit to blunt sustained pace across sets.

Mental edge: Their lone meeting saw Polina grab set one; Sabalenka reset and surged — that resilience looms here.

Momentum: Sabalenka’s Slam form in 2025 is elite. Kudermetova arrives relieved after her first MD Slam win, but faces a step-change in weight of shot.

Likely flow: Polina may swing freely early and make the opener tight, but sustaining that level against relentless pace is a big ask.

🔮 Prediction

Too strong, too proven, too comfortable in NYC — Sabalenka should dictate from the toss and keep this on her terms.

Pick: Sabalenka in 2 sets — a close opener is possible before the World No. 1 pulls away.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• First serve & +1 ball: Clear edge Sabalenka.
• Rally tolerance: Sabalenka wins when exchanges stay on her forehand terms; Polina solid but lacks finishing weight.
• Pressure moments: Big-match reps and hold/break conversion poise favor Sabalenka.
• Form & confidence: Edge Sabalenka (deep runs all season); Polina’s season volatile.
• Venue comfort: Strong Sabalenka history in New York.