Second-round previews from the Brisbane 3 Challenger (hard), plus one held-over first-round match, with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every match. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Matthew Dellavedova vs Sebastian Gorzny
Brisbane 3 Challenger · Second Round · 11 November · 00:00
🧠 Form & Context
Matthew Dellavedova
- 🔥 Ranked No. 224 at 26, with a one-handed backhand, 9–1 in his last 10 and winning 83% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 33.7% against the first serve and 53.2% against the second, and 41% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 45.0% of break points, and 50% in recent matches.
- 🚀 Lands 70.0% of first serves. Has won 62% of deciding sets this season and 63% over his career.
- ⚠️ Wins only 64.8% behind his first serve, and has won 46% of career tiebreaks.
Sebastian Gorzny
- 📊 Ranked No. 403 at 22, also with a one-handed backhand, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 53% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 68.7% of points won (71% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 61.9% of break points, and 66% in recent matches.
- 🏆 Has won 50% of career tiebreaks and 58% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ A weak returner (31.2% against the first serve, 40.1% of break points converted), and his sample at this level is very small.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Both won their opening matches, and Gorzny is the 1.66 favourite despite being ranked 179 places lower.
Gorzny has the bigger first serve (68.7% vs 64.8%) and saves more break points (61.9% vs 57.1%). Dellavedova lands far more first serves (70.0% vs 60.6%), and they are level behind the second (50.5% vs 50.1%).
Dellavedova is the better returner: 33.7% against the first serve to 31.2%, and 53.2% against the second to 51.2%. He also converts far more break points (45.0% vs 40.1%).
The form is clearly with Dellavedova: 9–1 in his last 10 against 5–5, and 83% of recent matches won against 53%. He also has the better record in deciding sets (62% vs 47% this season).
On paper Dellavedova leads on return and form, which makes the price a surprise. Gorzny's numbers come from a very small sample.
📊 Tale of the Tape
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Bernard Tomic vs Omar Jasika
Brisbane 3 Challenger · Second Round · 11 November · 01:30
🧠 Form & Context
Bernard Tomic
- 📊 Ranked No. 176 at 34, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 58% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 71.9% of points won (72% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 62.9% of break points.
- 🤝 Has won both of their completed meetings, most recently 6–4, 7–6 on a hard court in Shanghai in September 2025.
- ⚠️ A very weak returner: 27.4% against the first serve, 48.8% against the second and 38.3% of break points converted.
Omar Jasika
- 🔥 Ranked No. 301 at 29, a left-hander, 8–2 in his last 10 and winning 71% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The far better returner: 33.6% against the first serve and 53.5% against the second, and 41% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 44.7% of break points.
- 🚀 Lands 68.6% of first serves, and has saved 65% of break points recently.
- ⚠️ Wins only 66.2% behind his first serve, and has lost both completed meetings.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their fourth meeting. Tomic has won both completed matches, most recently 6–4, 7–6 on a hard court in Shanghai in September 2025. A third, in Savannah in 2024, ended in a retirement. Tomic is the 1.62 favourite and is ranked 125 places higher.
Tomic has the bigger first serve (71.9% vs 66.2%) and saves more break points (62.9% vs 59.9%). Jasika lands far more first serves (68.6% vs 63.4%) and is slightly stronger behind the second (51.3% vs 50.4%).
Jasika is the far better returner: 33.6% against the first serve to 27.4%, and 53.5% against the second to 48.8%. He also converts far more break points (44.7% vs 38.3%).
The form is with Jasika: 8–2 in his last 10 against 5–5, and 71% of recent matches won against 58%. Tomic has the slightly better career deciding-set record (57% vs 53%).
Server against returner. Tomic's serve and his wins in this matchup explain the price, while Jasika's return and form point the other way.
📊 Tale of the Tape
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James McCabe vs Jan Kumstat
Brisbane 3 Challenger · First Round · 11 November · 01:30
🧠 Form & Context
James McCabe
- 📉 Ranked No. 287 at 23, 2–8 in his last 10 and winning 33% of recent matches.
- 🚀 A big first serve: 73.0% of points won (73% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 60.9% of break points (63% recently).
- 🎯 Lands 60.5% of first serves. Has won 56% of career deciding sets.
- ⚠️ A weak returner: 29.8% against the first serve and 48.4% against the second.
Jan Kumstat
- 📈 Ranked No. 162 at 19, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 74% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Stronger behind the second serve (51.1%), and has won 77% behind his first serve recently.
- 🔒 Has saved 70% of break points in recent matches.
- 🏆 Has won 68% of career tiebreaks, 67% of deciding sets and 92% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Lands only 56.2% of first serves, and his sample at this level is fairly small.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Kumstat is the 1.50 favourite and is ranked 125 places higher.
On serve they are close. They win the same share behind the first serve (73.0% vs 72.9%), McCabe lands more first serves (60.5% vs 56.2%) and saves slightly more break points (60.9% vs 59.7%), while Kumstat is stronger behind the second (51.1% vs 49.2%).
Neither returns well. Kumstat is slightly better against the first serve (31.2% vs 29.8%) and the second (49.9% vs 48.4%), and they convert break points at the same rate (39.9% vs 39.4%).
The form is clearly with Kumstat: 5–5 in his last 10 against 2–8, and 74% of recent matches won against 33%. He also has the far better records in tiebreaks (68% vs 50%) and deciding sets (67% vs 56%).
Kumstat's form and record in tight sets explain the price, in a match where holds should dominate.
📊 Tale of the Tape
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August Holmgren vs Christopher O'Connell
Brisbane 3 Challenger · Second Round · 11 November · 04:30
🧠 Form & Context
August Holmgren
- 📊 Ranked No. 265 at 28, with a one-handed backhand, 3–7 in his last 10 and winning 44% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Slightly stronger on serve: 72.8% on the first serve (74% recently) and 53.4% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 63.7% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 54% of career deciding sets and 60% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ A weak returner: 30.4% against the first serve, 47.4% against the second and 36.9% of break points converted.
Christopher O'Connell
- 📈 Ranked No. 117 at 32, also with a one-handed backhand, 7–3 in his last 10.
- 🚀 Wins 71.7% behind his first serve and 51.3% behind his second.
- 🔒 Saves 63.4% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 59% of career tiebreaks and 62% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ Has converted only 26% of break points recently, and has won 48% of career deciding sets.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting, after both won their opening matches. O'Connell is the 1.53 favourite and is ranked 148 places higher.
On serve there is very little between them. Holmgren is slightly ahead behind the first serve (72.8% vs 71.7%) and the second (53.4% vs 51.3%), and they save break points at the same rate (63.7% vs 63.4%).
O'Connell is slightly the better returner: 31.3% against the first serve to 30.4%, and 50.0% against the second to 47.4%. He also converts more break points (41.3% vs 36.9%).
O'Connell is 7–3 in his last 10 against 3–7. He also has the better tiebreak record (59% vs 54%), while Holmgren has the better career deciding-set record (54% vs 48%).
Two strong servers, so holds should dominate. O'Connell's ranking and form explain the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
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Alafia Ayeni vs Alex Bolt
Brisbane 3 Challenger · Second Round · 11 November · 06:00
🧠 Form & Context
Alafia Ayeni
- 📉 Ranked No. 428 at 27, 3–7 in his last 10 and winning 41% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Wins 70.0% behind his first serve (71% recently).
- 🔁 Slightly the better returner: 31.7% against the first serve and 49.8% against the second.
- 🎯 Converts 40.3% of break points.
- ⚠️ Weak behind his second serve (45.1%, and 44% recently), and has saved 51% of break points recently.
Alex Bolt
- 📊 Ranked No. 171 at 33, a left-hander, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 48% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The much stronger server: 72.5% on the first serve and 52.6% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 63.7% of break points.
- 🤝 Won their only meeting, 6–4, 7–6 on a hard court in San Diego in 2021.
- ⚠️ A weak returner: 29.0% against the first serve and 38.7% of break points converted.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their second meeting. Bolt won the first, 6–4, 7–6 on a hard court in San Diego in 2021. He is the 1.28 favourite and is ranked 257 places higher.
Bolt is the much stronger server: 72.5% behind the first serve to 70.0%, 52.6% behind the second to 45.1%, and 63.7% of break points saved to 59.3%. He also lands more first serves (62.1% vs 60.8%).
Ayeni is slightly the better returner: 31.7% against the first serve to 29.0%, and 49.8% against the second to 48.1%. He also converts slightly more break points (40.3% vs 38.7%).
Bolt is 5–5 in his last 10 against 3–7 and has won slightly more of his recent matches (48% vs 41%). He also has the better career deciding-set record (57% vs 48%).
Bolt's serve and their only meeting explain the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
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