Second-round previews from the Sioux Falls Challenger (indoor hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Aidan Mayo vs Maks Kasnikowski
🧠 Form & Context
Aidan Mayo
- 📈 Ranked No. 321 at 23, 6–4 in his last 10, after beating Barton in the first round.
- 🚀 Wins 70.7% behind his first serve, 77% recently.
- 🔒 Saves 60.3% of break points, 65% recently.
- 🏆 Wins 52% of tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Has won only 36% of deciding sets this season.
Maks Kasnikowski
- 📊 Ranked No. 213 at 23, 6–4 in his last 10.
- 🚀 Wins 71% behind his first serve and 51.6% on second.
- 🔁 The better returner: 41% of return points won and 42.9% of break points converted.
- 📊 62% career record in best-of-three.
- ⚠️ Has won only 39% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between two 23-year-olds, both 6–4 in their last 10. Kasnikowski is the favourite at 1.69.
On career numbers Kasnikowski is marginally ahead on serve (71% vs 70.7% on first-serve points, 51.6% vs 50.7% on second), but Mayo's recent serving has been stronger.
Kasnikowski is the better returner – 41% vs 39% of return points – and converts more of his break chances.
They are level on tiebreaks at 52%, with Kasnikowski slightly ahead in deciding sets (49% vs 47%) and best-of-three (62% vs 53%).
Kasnikowski has the return and the slightly better career numbers; Mayo has the recent serving form. Close.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Mayo | Kasnikowski |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 321 | 213 |
| Age | 23 | 23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 57.1% | 58.8% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.7% | 71.0% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.7% | 51.6% |
| Break points saved | 60.3% | 58.9% |
| Break points converted | 39.7% | 42.9% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 52% | 52% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 47% | 49% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 53% | 62% |
Jeff Wolf vs Daniel Milavsky
🔒 Members-only read
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
Mees Rottgering vs Kaylan Bigun
🧠 Form & Context
Mees Rottgering
- 📈 Ranked No. 316 at 19, left-handed, 6–4 in his last 10, after beating Galarneau in the first round.
- ⚔️ Beat Bigun 7–6 6–3 in the Wimbledon junior event in 2024.
- 🔁 The better returner: 42% of return points won and 46.7% of break points converted.
- 🏆 Has won 80% of deciding sets this season.
- 📏 A smaller sample of matches at this level.
Kaylan Bigun
- 📊 Ranked No. 535 at 20, left-handed, 5–5 in his last 10, after beating Martin in the first round.
- 🚀 Wins 67.7% behind his first serve, 71% recently.
- 🔁 Wins 40% of return points.
- ⚠️ Weak on the second serve (47.3%) and saves only 55% of break points.
- ⚠️ Only 34% of deciding sets won, with a 43% best-of-three record.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A meeting between two young left-handers who last played each other at junior Wimbledon in 2024. Rottgering won that one and is a strong favourite at 1.22.
Rottgering is ahead on every serving line, with the biggest gaps on the second serve (50.1% vs 47.3%) and break points saved (59.4% vs 55%).
He is also the better returner: 42% of return points against 40%, and 46.7% of break chances converted against 39.3%.
The tight-set numbers are one-sided: 56% vs 45% in tiebreaks, and 53% vs 34% in deciding sets.
Rottgering has the edge almost everywhere. The price reflects that.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Rottgering | Bigun |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 316 | 535 |
| Age | 19 | 20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 58.1% | 57.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.7% | 67.7% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.1% | 47.3% |
| Break points saved | 59.4% | 55.0% |
| Break points converted | 46.7% | 39.3% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 56% | 45% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 53% | 34% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 59% | 43% |
Jenson Brooksby vs Dylan Dietrich
🧠 Form & Context
Jenson Brooksby
- 🏆 Ranked No. 94 at 26, 8–2 in his last 10, the Fort Worth champion on Sunday.
- 🎾 Lands 66.1% of first serves and wins 51.4% behind his second.
- 🎯 Converts 43.5% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 60% of deciding sets over his career.
- ⚠️ Only 67.1% won behind his first serve.
Dylan Dietrich
- 🔥 Ranked No. 254 at 22, also 8–2 in his last 10, winning 80% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Wins 69.4% behind his first serve, 74% recently.
- 🔒 Has saved 67% of break points recently.
- 🏆 Wins 62% of tiebreaks and has won 67% of deciding sets this season.
- 📏 Very little data on him at this level.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between two players on 8–2 runs. Brooksby, who won the Fort Worth title on Sunday, is the favourite at 1.48.
Brooksby lands far more first serves (66.1% vs 61%) and is stronger on the second; Dietrich wins more behind his first serve (69.4% vs 67.1%).
On return they are close: 41% vs 40% of return points for Dietrich, with Brooksby converting more of his break chances.
Dietrich has the better tiebreak record (62% vs 57%); Brooksby has the better career deciding-set record (60% vs 54%).
Brooksby has the class and the title run; Dietrich has the form and the tiebreak numbers. A good second-round match.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Brooksby | Dietrich |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 94 | 254 |
| Age | 26 | 22 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 66.1% | 61.0% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.1% | 69.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.4% | 49.4% |
| Break points saved | 60.3% | 59.6% |
| Break points converted | 43.5% | 40.6% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 57% | 62% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 60% | 54% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 62% | 64% |
