First-round previews from the Knoxville Challenger (indoor hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Lui Maxted vs Hynek Barton
🔒 Members-only read
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
Orel Kimhi vs Filip Jeff Planinsek
🧠 Form & Context
Orel Kimhi
- 🔥 Ranked No. 726 at 23, 8–2 in his last 10.
- 🔁 The far better returner: 36.9% against the first serve and 55.2% against the second, and 44% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 47.5% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 69% of career deciding sets and 91% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ A weak first serve (61.2% of points won), and his recent serve numbers have dipped: 37% behind the second serve and 45% of break points saved.
Filip Jeff Planinsek
- 📈 Ranked No. 510 at 25, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 62% of recent matches.
- 🚀 A big first serve: 72.9% of points won (74% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 61.6% of break points, and 65% in recent matches.
- 🏆 Has won 58% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Lands only 57.3% of first serves and is a weak returner: 33.9% against the first serve and 39.1% of break points converted.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Planinsek is the 1.53 favourite and is ranked 216 places higher.
Planinsek has the much bigger first serve (72.9% vs 61.2%) and saves far more break points (61.6% vs 52.5%). Kimhi lands far more first serves (67.8% vs 57.3%), and they are level behind the second (49.2% vs 48.8%).
Kimhi is the far better returner: 36.9% against the first serve to 33.9%, and 55.2% against the second to 49.9%. He also converts far more break points (47.5% vs 39.1%).
Kimhi is 8–2 in his last 10 against 5–5. He also has the better career records in deciding sets (69% vs 56%) and tiebreaks (53% vs 46%).
Server against returner. Planinsek's serve explains the price, while Kimhi's return and longer-run form point the other way.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Kimhi | Planinsek |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 726 | 510 |
| Age | 23 | 25 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 67.8% | 57.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 61.2% | 72.9% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.2% | 48.8% |
| Break points saved | 52.5% | 61.6% |
| Break points converted | 47.5% | 39.1% |
| Return points won (career) | 44% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 53% | 46% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 69% | 56% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 54% | 57% |
Alexis Galarneau vs Stefan Kozlov
🧠 Form & Context
Alexis Galarneau
- 📉 Ranked No. 192 at 27, 3–7 in his last 10 and winning 50% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 68.7% on the first serve (70% recently) and 51.2% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 59.6% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 56% of deciding sets this season and 52% of career tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ A weak returner against the first serve (31.2%), and has converted only 37% of break points recently.
Stefan Kozlov
- 📈 Ranked No. 205 at 28, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 54% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 34.4% against the first serve and 53.1% against the second, and 42% of career return points.
- 🎯 Has converted 47% of break points recently.
- 🤝 Leads the head-to-head 2–1 and won the most recent meeting, indoors in Oeiras in January.
- ⚠️ Weaker on serve (66.4% behind the first, 48.5% behind the second), and has won 48% of career tiebreaks.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their fourth meeting. Kozlov leads 2–1 and won the most recent, 7–6, 2–6, 6–1 indoors in Oeiras in January. He is the 1.66 favourite, although Galarneau is ranked 13 places higher.
Galarneau is the stronger server: 68.7% behind the first serve to 66.4%, 51.2% behind the second to 48.5%, and 59.6% of break points saved to 57.5%. Kozlov lands more first serves (61.0% vs 58.5%).
Kozlov is the better returner: 34.4% against the first serve to 31.2%, and 53.1% against the second to 52.4%. He also converts slightly more break points (42.4% vs 41.2%).
The form is with Kozlov: 7–3 in his last 10 against 3–7. He also has the better career deciding-set record (60% vs 50%).
Kozlov's form, return and head-to-head lead explain the price, while Galarneau's serve keeps this close.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Galarneau | Kozlov |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 192 | 205 |
| Age | 27 | 28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 2 |
| First serves in | 58.5% | 61.0% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.7% | 66.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.2% | 48.5% |
| Break points saved | 59.6% | 57.5% |
| Break points converted | 41.2% | 42.4% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 52% | 48% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 50% | 60% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 55% | 57% |
Aidan Mayo vs Michael Mmoh
🧠 Form & Context
Aidan Mayo
- 🔥 Ranked No. 235 at 23, 8–2 in his last 10 and winning 63% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Big first serve: 70.9% of points won (77% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 60.5% of break points, and 66% in recent matches.
- 🤝 Won their only meeting, on clay in Savannah in 2024, when Mmoh retired in the third set.
- ⚠️ Lands only 57.2% of first serves, and has won 38% of deciding sets this season.
Michael Mmoh
- 📊 Ranked No. 150 at 28, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 50% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Lands 65.3% of first serves and wins 70.2% behind it.
- 🎯 Converts 42.0% of break points (47% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 76% of deciding sets this season and 60% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ Weaker behind his second serve (48.2%, and 46% recently).
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their second meeting. Mayo won the first on clay in Savannah in 2024, when Mmoh retired in the third set. Mayo is the 1.72 favourite despite being ranked 85 places lower.
On serve they are close. Mayo is slightly stronger behind the first serve (70.9% vs 70.2%) and the second (51.0% vs 48.2%), while Mmoh lands far more first serves (65.3% vs 57.2%). They save break points at the same rate (60.5% vs 60.1%).
On return they are almost identical: 31.5% vs 31.4% against the first serve and 51.0% vs 51.4% against the second. Mmoh converts more break points (42.0% vs 40.0%).
Mayo is 8–2 in his last 10 against 6–4 and has won more of his recent matches (63% vs 50%). Mmoh has won far more deciding sets this season (76% vs 38%).
Mayo's form explains the price, in a match where holds should dominate.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Mayo | Mmoh |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 235 | 150 |
| Age | 23 | 28 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 57.2% | 65.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.9% | 70.2% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.0% | 48.2% |
| Break points saved | 60.5% | 60.1% |
| Break points converted | 40.0% | 42.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 51% | 52% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 47% | 57% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 54% | 60% |
Marcos Giron vs Maks Kasnikowski
🧠 Form & Context
Marcos Giron
- 📉 Ranked No. 94 at 33, 2–8 in his last 10 and winning 37% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Strong on serve: 71.7% behind the first serve and 51.2% behind the second.
- 🔒 Saves 60.5% of break points (61% recently).
- 🎯 Lands 61.5% of first serves.
- ⚠️ A weak returner: 29.7% against the first serve and 39.2% of break points converted. Has won 36% of deciding sets this season.
Maks Kasnikowski
- 📈 Ranked No. 207 at 23, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 60% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 33.7% against the first serve and 52.3% against the second, and 41% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 43.0% of break points.
- 🚀 Has won 73% behind his first serve and 54% behind his second in recent matches.
- ⚠️ Lands only 58.7% of first serves, and has won 40% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Giron is the 1.53 favourite and is ranked 113 places higher.
On serve they are almost identical: 71.7% vs 71.0% behind the first serve, 51.2% vs 51.6% behind the second, and 60.5% vs 58.9% of break points saved. Giron lands more first serves (61.5% vs 58.7%).
Kasnikowski is the better returner: 33.7% against the first serve to 29.7%, and 52.3% against the second to 50.3%. He also converts more break points (43.0% vs 39.2%).
The form gap is large. Kasnikowski is 6–4 in his last 10 against 2–8, and has won 60% of his recent matches against 37%.
Giron's ranking explains the price, but Kasnikowski's form and return make this look much closer.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Giron | Kasnikowski |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 94 | 207 |
| Age | 33 | 23 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 61.5% | 58.7% |
| 1st-serve points won | 71.7% | 71.0% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.2% | 51.6% |
| Break points saved | 60.5% | 58.9% |
| Break points converted | 39.2% | 43.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 38% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 51% | 52% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 47% | 49% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 62% |
Petr Nesterov vs Timo Legout
🧠 Form & Context
Petr Nesterov
- 📊 Ranked No. 282 at 23, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 65% of recent matches.
- 🔒 Saves 58.4% of break points (61% recently).
- 🚀 Slightly stronger behind both serves: 65.4% on the first and 50.0% on the second.
- 🏆 Has won 68% of deciding sets this season, 60% of career tiebreaks and 91% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Slightly the weaker returner against the second serve (52.6%).
Timo Legout
- 📈 Ranked No. 341 at 24, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 73% of recent matches.
- 🔁 Stronger against the second serve: 54.3% of points won, and 44% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 46.3% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 63% of career deciding sets and best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ Saves only 55.9% of break points, and has won 52% of career tiebreaks.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Legout is the 1.38 favourite despite being ranked 59 places lower.
On serve they are close. Nesterov is slightly ahead behind the first serve (65.4% vs 65.2%) and the second (50.0% vs 48.7%), and saves more break points (58.4% vs 55.9%).
On return they are level against the first serve (37.0% vs 36.8%), but Legout is better against the second (54.3% vs 52.6%) and converts more break points (46.3% vs 44.9%).
Legout is 6–4 in his last 10 against 5–5 and has won more of his recent matches (73% vs 65%). Nesterov has the better records in tiebreaks (60% vs 52%) and deciding sets this season (68% vs 50%).
Legout's form explains the price, but there is very little between them on paper.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Nesterov | Legout |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 282 | 341 |
| Age | 23 | 24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 62.5% | 62.9% |
| 1st-serve points won | 65.4% | 65.2% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.0% | 48.7% |
| Break points saved | 58.4% | 55.9% |
| Break points converted | 44.9% | 46.3% |
| Return points won (career) | 43% | 44% |
| Tiebreak win % | 60% | 52% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 64% | 63% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 64% | 63% |
Alastair Gray vs Darwin Blanch
🧠 Form & Context
Alastair Gray
- 📈 Ranked No. 270 at 28, with a one-handed backhand, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 58% of recent matches.
- 🚀 A big first serve: 73.1% of points won (72% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 62.5% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 65% of best-of-three matches and 89% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Converts only 38% of break points recently.
Darwin Blanch
- 📈 Ranked No. 149 at 19, a left-hander, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 55% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Wins 70.5% behind his first serve (74% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 61.3% of break points (63% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 59% of career tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ A weak returner: 31.0% against the first serve and 41.9% of break points converted.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Blanch is the 1.33 favourite and is ranked 121 places higher.
Gray has the bigger first serve (73.1% vs 70.5%), lands more first serves (62.4% vs 60.3%) and saves slightly more break points (62.5% vs 61.3%). They are level behind the second serve (50.2% vs 50.3%).
Gray is also better against the first serve (34.0% vs 31.0%), and they are level against the second (50.2% vs 50.4%).
Both are 7–3 in their last 10, and Gray has won slightly more of his recent matches (58% vs 55%). Blanch has the better tiebreak record (59% vs 53%).
Blanch's ranking explains the price, but the numbers make this look much closer.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Gray | Blanch |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 270 | 149 |
| Age | 28 | 19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 62.4% | 60.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 73.1% | 70.5% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.2% | 50.3% |
| Break points saved | 62.5% | 61.3% |
| Break points converted | 42.6% | 41.9% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 38% |
| Tiebreak win % | 53% | 59% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 54% | 52% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 65% | 58% |
Ozan Baris vs Oliver Tarvet
🧠 Form & Context
Ozan Baris
- 📊 Ranked No. 397 at 22, 4–6 in his last 10 but winning 67% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Lands 63.1% of first serves, and has won 72% behind it recently.
- 🏆 Has won 67% of deciding sets this season and 61% of career tiebreaks.
- 🔒 Saves 59.2% of break points.
- ⚠️ A weak returner: 33.4% against the first serve and 39.9% of break points converted.
Oliver Tarvet
- 🔥 Ranked No. 253 at 23, 10–0 in his last 10 and winning 83% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 72.9% on the first serve (76% recently) and 53.8% on the second.
- 🔁 The better returner: 36.0% against the first serve and 55.8% against the second.
- 🏆 Has won 71% of career deciding sets, 79% of best-of-three matches and 95% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Lands only 59.1% of first serves, and his sample at this level is fairly small.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Tarvet is the heavy 1.11 favourite and is ranked 144 places higher.
Tarvet is the stronger server: 72.9% behind the first serve to 67.8%, 53.8% behind the second to 50.0%, and 62.0% of break points saved to 59.2%. Baris lands more first serves (63.1% vs 59.1%).
Tarvet is also the better returner: 36.0% against the first serve to 33.4%, and 55.8% against the second to 51.1%. He converts far more break points (47.8% vs 39.9%).
Tarvet has won all of his last 10 matches and 83% of his recent ones. His career records in deciding sets (71% vs 53%) and best-of-three matches (79% vs 57%) are also far better.
Tarvet leads on almost every line, which explains the short price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Baris | Tarvet |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 397 | 253 |
| Age | 22 | 23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 10–0 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 63.1% | 59.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.8% | 72.9% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.0% | 53.8% |
| Break points saved | 59.2% | 62.0% |
| Break points converted | 39.9% | 47.8% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 43% |
| Tiebreak win % | 61% | 60% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 53% | 71% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 79% |
Daniel Milavsky vs Murphy Cassone
🔒 Members-only read
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
Braden Shick vs Andres Andrade
🧠 Form & Context
Braden Shick
- 📊 Ranked No. 206 at 23, 4–6 in his last 10 but winning 59% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 71.2% on the first serve and 51.3% on the second.
- 🤝 Has won both of their completed meetings, most recently 6–2, 6–3 in Vancouver in July.
- 🏆 Has won 74% of deciding sets this season, 63% over his career and 93% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ The weaker returner (33.1% against the first serve), and his sample at this level is small.
Andres Andrade
- 📈 Ranked No. 211 at 27, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 51% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 35.8% against the first serve and 53.3% against the second, and 42% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 45.5% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 56% of career tiebreaks and 62% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ Lands only 57.5% of first serves, and has saved 52% of break points recently.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Shick has won both of their completed meetings, most recently 6–2, 6–3 on a hard court in Vancouver in July. A third, in Baton Rouge, ended in a walkover. Shick is the 1.40 favourite, and the two are ranked five places apart.
Shick is the stronger server: 71.2% behind the first serve to 68.0%, 51.3% behind the second to 49.4%, and 59.4% of break points saved to 58.4%.
Andrade is the better returner: 35.8% against the first serve to 33.1%, and 53.3% against the second to 51.6%. He also converts more break points (45.5% vs 42.7%).
Andrade is 6–4 in his last 10 against 4–6, but Shick has won more of his recent matches (59% vs 51%). Shick also has the far better record in deciding sets (74% vs 58% this season).
Shick's serve and his two wins in this matchup explain the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Shick | Andrade |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 206 | 211 |
| Age | 23 | 27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 2 | 0 |
| First serves in | 58.1% | 57.5% |
| 1st-serve points won | 71.2% | 68.0% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.3% | 49.4% |
| Break points saved | 59.4% | 58.4% |
| Break points converted | 42.7% | 45.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 57% | 56% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 63% | 53% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 64% | 62% |
Giles Hussey vs Michael Zheng
🧠 Form & Context
Giles Hussey
- 📈 Ranked No. 327 at 29, a left-hander, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 71% of recent matches.
- 🔁 Better against the first serve: 35.0% of points won.
- 🚀 Lands 62.7% of first serves.
- 🏆 Has won 63% of deciding sets this season and 63% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ Weaker on serve: 67.0% behind the first serve and 59.0% of break points saved.
Michael Zheng
- 📊 Ranked No. 100 at 22, 4–6 in his last 10 and winning 60% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 72.2% on the first serve (74% recently) and 51.3% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 62.6% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 65% of deciding sets this season and 92% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Lands only 58.1% of first serves, and has won 40% of career tiebreaks.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Zheng is the heavy 1.13 favourite and is ranked 227 places higher.
Zheng is the stronger server: 72.2% behind the first serve to 67.0%, 51.3% behind the second to 50.7%, and 62.6% of break points saved to 59.0%. Hussey lands more first serves (62.7% vs 58.1%).
Hussey is better against the first serve (35.0% vs 32.4%), Zheng slightly better against the second (52.6% vs 52.0%). They convert break points at the same rate (43.7% vs 43.9%).
Hussey is 5–5 in his last 10 against 4–6 and has won more of his recent matches (71% vs 60%). He also has the better tiebreak record (50% vs 40%).
Zheng's serve and ranking explain the short price, but Hussey's recent form makes this look closer.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Hussey | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 327 | 100 |
| Age | 29 | 22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 62.7% | 58.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.0% | 72.2% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.7% | 51.3% |
| Break points saved | 59.0% | 62.6% |
| Break points converted | 43.7% | 43.9% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 50% | 40% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 59% | 59% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 63% | 64% |
Abedallah Shelbayh vs Harry Wendelken
🧠 Form & Context
Abedallah Shelbayh
- 📊 Ranked No. 305 at 22, a left-hander, 4–6 in his last 10 and winning 51% of recent matches.
- 🔒 Saves 59.3% of break points (60% recently).
- 🚀 Lands 58.8% of first serves and wins 67.8% behind it.
- 🏆 Has won 54% of career deciding sets.
- ⚠️ Slightly the weaker returner, and has won 43% of deciding sets this season.
Harry Wendelken
- 📊 Ranked No. 236 at 24, 4–6 in his last 10 and winning 41% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Stronger behind the second serve: 51.5% of points won.
- 🔁 Slightly the better returner: 33.1% against the first serve and 52.5% against the second.
- 🏆 Has won 59% of deciding sets this season and 53% of career tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Lands only 56.8% of first serves, and has converted 37% of break points recently.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting, and the market cannot split them: both are priced at 1.83. Wendelken is ranked 69 places higher.
On serve they are almost identical: 67.8% vs 68.1% behind the first serve, 50.0% vs 51.5% behind the second, and 59.3% vs 58.5% of break points saved.
On return they are just as close: 32.4% vs 33.1% against the first serve, 52.1% vs 52.5% against the second, and 42.7% vs 42.9% of break points converted.
Both are 4–6 in their last 10, and Shelbayh has won more of his recent matches (51% vs 41%). Wendelken has won more deciding sets this season (59% vs 43%).
Almost nothing between them on paper, which matches the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Shelbayh | Wendelken |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 305 | 236 |
| Age | 22 | 24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 58.8% | 56.8% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.8% | 68.1% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.0% | 51.5% |
| Break points saved | 59.3% | 58.5% |
| Break points converted | 42.7% | 42.9% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 49% | 53% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 54% | 51% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 55% | 57% |
