The rest of the first round at the Fort Worth Challenger on hard courts, with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every match. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Kaylan Bigun vs Trevor Svajda
🧠 Form & Context
Kaylan Bigun
- 📊 Ranked No. 573 at 20, left-handed, 4–6 in his last 10.
- 🚀 Winning 71% of first-serve points recently.
- 📈 Winning 58% of his recent matches.
- ⚠️ Weak on the second serve: 47.5% won.
- ⚠️ Only 33% of deciding sets and 45% of tiebreaks won over his career.
Trevor Svajda
- 📊 Ranked No. 474 at 20, 4–6 in his last 10.
- 🎾 Ahead on every serve number: 68.8% on first-serve points, 51.6% on second, 61.7% of break points saved.
- 🔓 The sharper converter: 43.4% of break points won.
- 🏆 Has won 63% of deciding sets this season and 54% of tiebreaks.
- 📏 A small sample of matches at this level.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between two 20-year-olds. Svajda is the favourite at 1.25.
Svajda is ahead on every serve number in our table, most clearly on the second serve (51.6% vs 47.5%) and in break-point defence (61.7% vs 54.1%).
Neither is a strong returner (40% vs 41% of return points), so this should be decided by a handful of points on serve.
Under pressure Svajda has the clear edge: 54% of tiebreaks against 45%, and 54% of deciding sets against 33%.
Svajda has the better numbers across the board. Bigun's left-handed serve is his best route into the match.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Bigun | Svajda |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 573 | 474 |
| Age | 20 | 20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 56.7% | 57.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.8% | 68.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 47.5% | 51.6% |
| Break points saved | 54.1% | 61.7% |
| Break points converted | 39.3% | 43.4% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 45% | 54% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 33% | 54% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 42% | 59% |
Cosme Rolland de Ravel vs Ozan Baris
🧠 Form & Context
Cosme Rolland de Ravel
- 📊 Ranked No. 781 at 22, but 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 74% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The stronger serve: 69.9% on first-serve points and 62.2% of break points saved.
- 🔓 Converts 45.2% of break points.
- 📊 69% record in best-of-three.
- 📏 A very small sample of matches at this level, so his numbers carry more uncertainty.
Ozan Baris
- 📊 Ranked No. 402 at 22, 4–6 in his last 10.
- 🎾 Lands 63.5% of first serves.
- 🏆 Wins 50% of tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Out of form: 41% of recent matches won, with only 56% on first-serve points recently.
- ⚠️ Saving only 50% of break points recently.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting, and the market can barely split them: Baris is a narrow favourite at 1.80 despite a 4–6 run.
Rolland de Ravel is ranked far lower, but his recent numbers are much stronger – 74% of recent matches won against 41%.
He has the better serve, winning more points behind both deliveries and saving more break points, and he has been far sharper recently (70% vs 56% on first-serve points).
Baris has the slightly better career return (44% vs 43%) and lands more first serves.
Rolland de Ravel has the form and the serve; Baris has the ranking. The catch is how little data there is on the underdog.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Rolland de Ravel | Baris |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 781 | 402 |
| Age | 22 | 22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 58.5% | 63.5% |
| 1st-serve points won | 69.9% | 67.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.3% | 49.9% |
| Break points saved | 62.2% | 59.6% |
| Break points converted | 45.2% | 40.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 43% | 44% |
| Tiebreak win % | 45% | 50% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | – | 43% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 69% | 46% |
Aidan Mayo vs Colton Smith
🧠 Form & Context
Aidan Mayo
- 📈 Ranked No. 336 at 23, 7–3 in his last 10.
- ⚔️ Leads the head-to-head 2–0 without dropping a set, most recently 6–2 7–6 in Columbus this month.
- 🚀 Serving brilliantly recently: 76% on first-serve points.
- 🔒 Saving 62% of break points recently.
- ⚠️ Only 32% of deciding sets won this season.
Colton Smith
- 📊 Ranked No. 218 at 23, 6–4 in his last 10.
- 🔁 The better returner: 42% of return points won and 42.5% of break points converted.
- 🔒 Saves 63.9% of break points over his career.
- 🏆 Has won 75% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ His serve has dipped recently: 57% on first-serve points and 40% on second.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A third meeting, and Mayo has won both so far in straight sets – including 6–2 7–6 in Columbus at the start of this month. Smith is the favourite at 1.66.
Mayo has the bigger first serve (70.6% vs 68.9% over his career) and has been in outstanding serving form recently, winning 76% of first-serve points.
Smith is the better returner (42% vs 39%) and the stronger second-serve player over his career, but his recent serving numbers have dropped sharply.
Smith has been the better finisher this season, winning 75% of deciding sets against Mayo's 32%.
Smith has the ranking and the return; Mayo has the serve form and the head-to-head. Closer than the price suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Mayo | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 336 | 218 |
| Age | 23 | 23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 2 | 0 |
| First serves in | 57.0% | 64.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.6% | 68.9% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.8% | 52.2% |
| Break points saved | 59.9% | 63.9% |
| Break points converted | 39.9% | 42.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 53% | – |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 47% | 50% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 53% | 50% |
Albert Pedrico Kravtsov vs Darwin Blanch
🧠 Form & Context
Albert Pedrico Kravtsov
- 📊 Currently unranked at 21, with a one-handed backhand, 5–5 in his last 10.
- 🔁 The better returner over his career: 43% of return points won, 46% of break points converted.
- 🔓 Converting 51% of break points recently.
- ⚠️ Winning only 42% of recent matches and 17% of deciding sets this season.
- 📏 Limited data at this level.
Darwin Blanch
- 📈 Ranked No. 159 at 19, left-handed, 8–2 in his last 10.
- ⚔️ Won their only meeting, 6–7 6–1 7–6 at an ITF event in Telde in 2024.
- 🚀 Big first serve: 70.2% won over his career, 73% recently.
- 🏆 Wins 59% of tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Converts only 41.5% of break points.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A rematch of a three-set battle from 2024, which Blanch won in a final-set tiebreak. Blanch is a heavy favourite at 1.14.
Blanch's left-handed serve is the main weapon: 70.2% of first-serve points won over his career and 73% recently.
Pedrico Kravtsov is the better returner on career numbers (43% vs 38% of return points) and has been converting break points well recently.
Blanch has the better tiebreak record (59% vs 43%), while Pedrico Kravtsov has won only 17% of deciding sets this season.
Blanch has the serve, the form and the ranking. Pedrico Kravtsov's return is his only real route to an upset, and data on him at this level is limited.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Pedrico Kravtsov | Blanch |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | – | 159 |
| Age | 21 | 19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 1 |
| First serves in | 65% | 60.5% |
| 1st-serve points won | 64% | 70.2% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 47% | 50.1% |
| Break points saved | – | 60.9% |
| Break points converted | 46% | 41.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 43% | 38% |
| Tiebreak win % | 43% | 59% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 56% | 52% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 59% | 57% |
Gavin Young vs Alex Rybakov
🧠 Form & Context
Gavin Young
- 📊 Ranked No. 542 at 24, 4–6 in his last 10.
- 🎾 Lands 68.7% of first serves.
- 🔒 Saves 64% of break points.
- 🏆 Strong in tight sets: 64% of tiebreaks won, with a 64% record in best-of-three.
- 📏 A small sample of matches at this level.
Alex Rybakov
- 📊 Ranked No. 696 at 29, left-handed with a one-handed backhand, 5–5 in his last 10.
- 🚀 Wins 69.4% behind his first serve and 51.4% on second.
- 🔒 Saves 62.2% of break points.
- ⚠️ Only 48% of tiebreaks won.
- ⚠️ Only 26% of deciding sets won this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between two big servers. Rybakov is the favourite at 1.68 despite being ranked more than 150 places lower.
On serve there is almost nothing between them: 69.2% vs 69.4% on first-serve points, 50.9% vs 51.4% on second.
Their return numbers are identical too – 40% of return points and 41.8% of break points converted each – so this looks like a match of holds.
That puts the focus on tiebreaks, where Young has the clear edge: 64% won against 48%. He has also won 50% of deciding sets this season against Rybakov's 26%.
Rybakov is the favourite, but the numbers barely split them – and the tight-set record favours Young.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Young | Rybakov |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 542 | 696 |
| Age | 24 | 29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 68.7% | 67.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 69.2% | 69.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.9% | 51.4% |
| Break points saved | 64.0% | 62.2% |
| Break points converted | 41.8% | 41.8% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 64% | 48% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 50% | 44% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 64% | 59% |
Kenta Miyoshi vs Murphy Cassone
🧠 Form & Context
Kenta Miyoshi
- 📊 Ranked No. 441 at 22, 5–5 in his last 10.
- 🚀 Serving well recently: 74% on first-serve points.
- 🔁 The better returner: 42% of return points won, 53.5% against second serves.
- 📊 61% career record in best-of-three.
- ⚠️ Saves only 55.6% of break points and wins 42% of tiebreaks.
Murphy Cassone
- 📊 Ranked No. 268 at 24, 6–4 in his last 10.
- ⚔️ Won their most recent meeting, 6–2 2–6 6–4 at the Champaign Challenger last November.
- 🚀 Big first serve: 71.5% won.
- 🔒 Saves 63.9% of break points.
- ⚠️ Weak on return: 38% of return points won, 30% against first serves.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A third meeting with the head-to-head at 1–1. Cassone won the most recent, in three sets in Champaign last November. He is the favourite at 1.57.
Both have big first serves (71.1% vs 71.5% won), but Cassone lands more of them and is much stronger on break-point defence (63.9% vs 55.6%).
Miyoshi is clearly the better returner – 42% of return points against 38% – and Cassone wins only 30% of points against first serves.
Cassone has the edge in tiebreaks (52% vs 42%), which matters in a match where breaks should be rare.
Cassone has the serve and the ranking; Miyoshi has the return. A close one.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Miyoshi | Cassone |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 441 | 268 |
| Age | 22 | 24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 1 |
| First serves in | 57.9% | 63.8% |
| 1st-serve points won | 71.1% | 71.5% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.6% | 51.0% |
| Break points saved | 55.6% | 63.9% |
| Break points converted | 41.3% | 42.2% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 38% |
| Tiebreak win % | 42% | 52% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 51% | 53% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 61% | 59% |
Andres Martin vs Erik Arutiunian
🧠 Form & Context
Andres Martin
- 📊 Ranked No. 338 at 25, 5–5 in his last 10.
- 🔁 The better returner: 41% of return points won, 51.7% against second serves.
- 🎾 Lands 63.6% of first serves and saves 60.3% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 54% of deciding sets over his career.
- ⚠️ Only 46% of tiebreaks won.
Erik Arutiunian
- 📈 Ranked No. 588 at 22, 6–4 in his last 10.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 70.3% won.
- 🔒 Saving 67% of break points recently.
- 🏆 Strong in tight sets: 62% of tiebreaks won, and 80% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Weak on return: 38% of return points won.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Martin is the favourite at 1.70 on ranking.
Arutiunian has the bigger first serve (70.3% vs 68%) and has been saving break points much better recently (67% vs 57%).
Martin is the better returner, winning 41% of return points over his career against 38% – his main edge in this match.
Arutiunian has the far better tight-set numbers: 62% of tiebreaks against 46%, and 80% of deciding sets this season against 48%.
Martin has the ranking and the return; Arutiunian has the serve and the clutch numbers. Closer than the price suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Martin | Arutiunian |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 338 | 588 |
| Age | 25 | 22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 63.6% | 61.9% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.0% | 70.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.6% | 50.1% |
| Break points saved | 60.3% | 59.3% |
| Break points converted | 42.7% | 42.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 38% |
| Tiebreak win % | 46% | 62% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 54% | 60% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 56% | 57% |
Sebastian Gorzny vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes
🧠 Form & Context
Sebastian Gorzny
- 📈 Ranked No. 406 at 22, with a one-handed backhand, 7–3 in his last 10.
- 🚀 Wins 68.6% behind his first serve, 71% recently.
- 🔒 Saves 62.3% of break points, 67% recently.
- ⚠️ Converts only 40.3% of break points.
- 📏 A very small sample of matches at this level.
Igor Ribeiro Marcondes
- 📊 Ranked No. 266 at 29, left-handed, 5–5 in his last 10.
- 🎾 Lands 65% of first serves and wins 51.3% on second-serve points.
- 🔁 The better returner: 42% of return points won and 44.5% of break points converted.
- 🏆 Has won 57% of deciding sets over his career and 65% this season.
- 📊 63% career record in best-of-three.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting, and an unusual price: Gorzny is the favourite at 1.53 despite being ranked 140 places below Ribeiro Marcondes.
Gorzny is in better form (7–3 in his last 10) and has the stronger first serve and break-point defence.
Ribeiro Marcondes is the better returner – 42% of return points won against 40%, and 44.5% of break points converted against 40.3%.
He also has the better tight-set record: 57% of deciding sets against 54% over his career, and 65% this season.
Gorzny has the form; Ribeiro Marcondes has the ranking, the return and the experience. Closer than the price suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Gorzny | Ribeiro Marcondes |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 406 | 266 |
| Age | 22 | 29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 60.5% | 65.0% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.6% | 66.6% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.0% | 51.3% |
| Break points saved | 62.3% | 57.4% |
| Break points converted | 40.3% | 44.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 50% | 52% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 54% | 57% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 59% | 63% |
Braden Shick vs Gabriel Debru
🧠 Form & Context
Braden Shick
- 📈 Ranked No. 208 at 22, 5–5 in his last 10.
- 🚀 The bigger serve: 71.4% on first-serve points, 51.3% on second.
- 🏆 Strong in tight sets: 57% of tiebreaks and 65% of deciding sets won, 77% this season.
- 📊 65% career record in best-of-three.
- ⚠️ Lands only 58.1% of first serves.
Gabriel Debru
- 🔥 Ranked No. 673 at 20, but 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 86% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Winning 72% of first-serve points recently.
- 🔁 Slightly the better returner: 41% of return points won and 43.8% of break points converted.
- 🏆 Has won 80% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Weaker on the second serve: 48.6% won.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting, and a near coin-flip in the market: Debru is a fractional favourite at 1.80, with the higher-ranked Shick at 1.90.
Shick has the stronger serve over his career – 71.4% on first-serve points against 67.3%, and better on the second ball.
Debru arrives in outstanding form, having won 86% of his recent matches, and is slightly the better returner.
Both have been excellent in deciding sets this season (77% and 80%), but Shick has the clearly better career tiebreak record (57% vs 48%).
Shick has the serve and the career numbers; Debru has the momentum. A genuinely close one.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Shick | Debru |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 208 | 673 |
| Age | 22 | 20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 58.1% | 63.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 71.4% | 67.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.3% | 48.6% |
| Break points saved | 60.3% | 58.5% |
| Break points converted | 43.0% | 43.8% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 57% | 48% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 65% | 59% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 65% | 59% |
Sander Jong vs Lui Maxted
🧠 Form & Context
Sander Jong
- 🔥 Ranked No. 451 at 26, 8–2 in his last 10.
- 🚀 Big first serve: 72.4% won, with 51.2% on second.
- 🔒 Saves 62.4% of break points, 65% recently.
- 🏆 Has won 63% of deciding sets, with a 66% record in best-of-three.
- ⚠️ Only 35% of tiebreaks won.
Lui Maxted
- 📊 Ranked No. 380 at 22, with a one-handed backhand, 6–4 in his last 10.
- 🎾 Lands 64.6% of first serves.
- 🔓 Converting 49% of break points recently.
- 🏆 Wins 50% of tiebreaks and has won 61% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Weak on the second serve: 47.7% won.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Jong is the favourite at 1.69 despite a lower ranking, on the back of an 8–2 run.
Jong has the stronger serve: 72.4% on first-serve points against 69.8%, and a clear edge on the second serve (51.2% vs 47.7%).
On return they are level at 41% of return points, though Maxted has been converting more of his break chances recently.
Jong has the better deciding-set record (63% vs 60%), but his tiebreak record is a real weakness – only 35% won.
Jong has the form and the serve. If this goes to tiebreaks, Maxted has the better numbers.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Jong | Maxted |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 451 | 380 |
| Age | 26 | 22 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 61.1% | 64.6% |
| 1st-serve points won | 72.4% | 69.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.2% | 47.7% |
| Break points saved | 62.4% | 59.3% |
| Break points converted | 44.7% | 45.6% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 35% | 50% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 63% | 60% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 66% | 61% |
Jeff Wolf vs Tyler Zink
🧠 Form & Context
Jeff Wolf
- 📊 Ranked No. 216 at 27, 5–5 in his last 10.
- ⚔️ Won their only meeting, 6–3 6–3 at the Vancouver Challenger in July.
- 🚀 Huge first serve: 73.8% won over his career.
- 🏆 Has won 71% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Lands only 57.2% of first serves.
Tyler Zink
- 📊 Ranked No. 436 at 25, just 2–8 in his last 10.
- 🚀 Wins 70.7% behind his first serve.
- 🔒 Saving 64% of break points recently.
- 🏆 Has won 60% of deciding sets over his career.
- ⚠️ Converting only 35% of break points recently.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A rematch from July, when Wolf beat Zink 6–3 6–3 in Vancouver. Wolf is the favourite at 1.25.
Both serve big, but Wolf's first serve is the stronger weapon – 73.8% won against 70.7%. Their second serves are identical at 50.8%.
Neither returns well (38% of return points each), so breaks should be rare – and Wolf converts his chances more often (41.5% vs 37.7%).
Zink has the better career deciding-set record (60% vs 55%), but Wolf has won 71% this season and Zink arrives on a 2–8 run.
Wolf has the serve, the form and the head-to-head. Zink needs a big serving day.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Wolf | Zink |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 216 | 436 |
| Age | 27 | 25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 57.2% | 58.8% |
| 1st-serve points won | 73.8% | 70.7% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.8% | 50.8% |
| Break points saved | 60.2% | 60.5% |
| Break points converted | 41.5% | 37.7% |
| Return points won (career) | 38% | 38% |
| Tiebreak win % | 49% | 44% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 55% | 60% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 58% | 53% |
