Paris Masters SFs, Hong Kong, Chennai & Stockholm – Daily Board 07.11.2026

PB Tennis · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 14 matches

Daily Board Paris, Hong Kong, Chennai & Stockholm

Semi-final Saturday in three places: Van Assche–Shelton and Ruud–Alcaraz at the Rolex Paris Masters, plus the last four at the Hong Kong and Chennai WTA 250s. Stockholm opens with eight first-round qualifying matches. Prices and no-vig percentages for all 14 matches, form snapshots for the open matches, and a Polymarket link on 11 cards. 1 match carries an Elite selection and 2 a $4.99 selection; the other 11 are open.

1 ELITE PICK TODAY Shubladze–Liu in Hong Kong. Plus 2 $4.99 picks: both Paris semi-finals, Van Assche–Shelton and Ruud–Alcaraz. Form read, selection and stake on Patreon.

Join PBTennis on Patreon ↗

Elite: pick for Patreon Elite members$4.99: pick for $4.99 membersCFS: Combined Form Score (0–100)L10 hard: outdoor or indoor hardFLAG: lost last hard match in straight setsLast 3: newest result firstTimes are TRT

Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open · WTA 250

Semi-finals · 2 matches · 1 Elite

09:00TRT · SF

Alexandra Shubladze vs Claire LiuPatreon ↗Polymarket ↗

Player	Pinnacle	No-vig
Alexandra Shubladze	2.040	47.8%
Claire LiuFAV	1.869	52.2%

ELITE PICK Form read, selection and stake for Patreon Elite members. Unlock on Patreon ↗

10:30TRT · SF

Maria Sakkari vs Alexandra EalaPatreon ↗Polymarket ↗

Player	Pinnacle	No-vig	CFS	L10	L10 hard	L52W	Last 3
Maria Sakkari	2.110	46.3%	66.7	7-3	7-3	29-22	W·W·W
Alexandra EalaFAV	1.819	53.7%	61.2	6-4	6-4	46-25	W·W·W

Bybit Stockholm Open · ATP 250

Qualifying round 1 · 8 matches

13:00TRT · Q1

Mika Brunold vs Borna GojoPatreon ↗Polymarket ↗

Player	Pinnacle	No-vig	CFS	L10	L10 hard	L52W	Last 3
Mika BrunoldFLAG	2.420	39.6%	69.3	7-3	7-3	43-21	L·W·L
Borna GojoFAVFLAG	1.588	60.4%	62.1	6-4	6-4	37-17	L·W·L

13:00TRT · Q1

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Francesco PassaroPatreon ↗Polymarket ↗

Player	Pinnacle	No-vig	CFS	L10	L10 hard	L52W	Last 3
Nikoloz BasilashviliFAVFLAG	1.450	66.1%	69.2	8-2	7-3	33-32	L·W·L
Francesco Passaro	2.830	33.9%	78.3	10-0	6-3	30-20	W·W·W

14:30TRT · Q1

Olle Wallin vs Lorenzo SonegoPatreon ↗Polymarket ↗

Player	Pinnacle	No-vig	CFS	L10	L10 hard	L52W	Last 3
Olle Wallin	7.130	13.3%	64.0	6-4	7-3	44-27	L·W·W
Lorenzo SonegoFAVFLAG	1.096	86.7%	40.8	4-6	4-6	19-25	L·W·W

14:30TRT · Q1

Damir Dzumhur vs Inaki Montes-De La TorrePatreon ↗Polymarket ↗

Player	Pinnacle	No-vig	CFS	L10	L10 hard	L52W	Last 3
Damir DzumhurFAVFLAG	1.555	61.7%	63.9	7-3	7-3	27-32	L·L·W
Inaki Montes-De La TorreFLAG	2.500	38.3%	59.0	6-4	4-4	49-21	L·L·L

16:00TRT · Q1

Viktor Durasovic vs Alexander ShevchenkoPatreon ↗Polymarket ↗

Player	Pinnacle	No-vig	CFS	L10	L10 hard	L52W	Last 3
Viktor DurasovicFLAG	4.250	22.5%	65.5	7-3	7-3	37-34	L·W·W
Alexander ShevchenkoFAV	1.237	77.5%	49.0	5-5	5-5	30-35	L·L·W

16:00TRT · Q1

Karl Friberg vs Toby SamuelPatreon ↗Polymarket ↗

Player	Pinnacle	No-vig	CFS	L10	L10 hard	L52W	Last 3
Karl FribergFLAG	6.110	15.6%	44.4	4-6	4-6	27-20	L·W·L
Toby SamuelFAVFLAG	1.133	84.4%	54.0	4-6	5-4	61-21	L·W·L

17:30TRT · Q1

Jacob Fearnley vs Arthur NagelPatreon ↗Polymarket ↗

Player	Pinnacle	No-vig	CFS	L10	L10 hard	L52W	Last 3
Jacob FearnleyFAV	1.076	88.4%	74.2	8-2	8-2	37-28	W·W·L
Arthur Nagel	8.240	11.6%	76.7	8-2	8-2	52-26	W·W·W

17:30TRT · Q1

Adrian Mannarino vs Jan SimonssonPatreon ↗

Player	Pinnacle	No-vig	CFS	L10	L10 hard	L52W	Last 3
Adrian MannarinoFAV	1.006	97.1%	55.9	6-4	6-4	27-35	L·L·W
Jan SimonssonFLAG	34.190	2.9%	68.8	7-3	7-3	13-7	L·W·W

Chennai Open · WTA 250

Semi-finals · 2 matches

15:30TRT · SF

Janice Tjen vs Robin MontgomeryPatreon ↗Polymarket ↗

Player	Pinnacle	No-vig	CFS	L10	L10 hard	L52W	Last 3
Janice TjenFAV	1.598	60.8%	56.3	6-4	6-4	24-29	W·W·W
Robin Montgomery	2.480	39.2%	64.5	6-4	7-3	23-13	W·W·W

17:00TRT · SF

Magda Linette vs Anastasia ZakharovaPatreon ↗

Player	Pinnacle	No-vig	CFS	L10	L10 hard	L52W	Last 3
Magda Linette	1.970	49.3%	50.0	5-5	5-5	24-24	W·W·W
Anastasia ZakharovaFAV	1.917	50.7%	43.5	4-6	4-6	41-35	W·W·L

Rolex Paris Masters · ATP 1000

Semi-finals · 2 matches · 2 $4.99

16:30TRT · SF

Luca Van Assche vs Ben SheltonPatreon ↗Polymarket ↗

Player	Pinnacle	No-vig
Luca Van Assche	3.930	24.7%
Ben SheltonFAV	1.290	75.3%

$4.99 PICK Form read, selection and stake for Patreon $4.99 members. Unlock on Patreon ↗

19:00TRT · SF

Casper Ruud vs Carlos AlcarazPatreon ↗

Player	Pinnacle	No-vig
Casper Ruud	5.160	18.8%
Carlos AlcarazFAV	1.197	81.2%

$4.99 PICK Form read, selection and stake for Patreon $4.99 members. Unlock on Patreon ↗

Pinnacle no-vig % is the moneyline price with the margin removed. Prices as of the early hours of 07.11.

Hong Kong: Sakkari beat Sasnovich 6-2 6-3 in the quarter-finals; Eala beat Ruzic 7-6 7-5 and has won her last three without dropping a set.

Stockholm: Fearnley beat Sonego 6-1 6-7 6-4 in Vienna qualifying on 25 October. Sonego lost 4-6 3-6 to Bellucci in the Paris first round. Passaro's 10-0 run is mostly on clay; his last hard-court match was at the US Open in September. Basilashvili lost 1-6 6-7 to Alcaraz in Vienna.

Chennai: Zakharova's quarter-final against Stefanini ended in a retirement at 6-2 5-2. Linette beat Zakharova in straight sets in Guangzhou last month. Tjen came through a three-setter against Kudermetova; Montgomery beat Rajeshwaran Revathi 6-3 6-3.

Polymarket prices move all day, so cards link the market instead of quoting a snapshot. Mannarino–Simonsson, Linette–Zakharova and Ruud–Alcaraz had no Polymarket market confirmed at the time of writing.

Form is the first question, not the answer. Nothing here is a pick.

Charlottesville challenger 2026 (USA) 07.11.26

Semifinal previews from the Charlottesville Challenger (indoor hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.

Matches

1. Mayo vs Andrade 🔒
2. Chidekh vs Kozlov

Aidan Mayo vs Andres Andrade

Charlottesville Challenger · Semifinal · 7 November · 18:30

🔒 Members-only read

This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.

Read it on Patreon

See ATP markets on Polymarket

Clement Chidekh vs Stefan Kozlov

Charlottesville Challenger · Semifinal · 7 November · 20:00

🧠 Form & Context

Clement Chidekh

• 🔥 Ranked No. 131 at 25, 8–2 in his last 10 and winning 67% of recent matches. Beat Giron in the quarterfinals.
• 🚀 The stronger server: 68.1% on the first serve (71% recently) and 51.5% on the second.
• 🔁 The better returner too: 35.1% against the first serve and 55.5% against the second.
• 🏆 Has won 64% of deciding sets this season, 66% of best-of-three matches and 90% of matches after taking the first set.
• ⚠️ His tiebreak record (53%) is only average.

Stefan Kozlov

• 📊 Ranked No. 271 at 28, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 42% of recent matches. Beat Shick in the quarterfinals.
• 🔁 A solid returner: 34.3% against the first serve and 53.0% against the second.
• 🏆 Has won 60% of career deciding sets and 87% of matches after winning the first set.
• 🚀 Lands 61.0% of first serves.
• ⚠️ Weaker behind the serve: 66.3% on the first, 48.4% on the second and 57.5% of break points saved. Has won 47% of career tiebreaks.

🔍 Match Breakdown

A first meeting. Chidekh is the heavy 1.15 favourite and is ranked 140 places higher.

Chidekh is the stronger server: 68.1% behind the first serve to 66.3%, 51.5% behind the second to 48.4%, and 59.6% of break points saved to 57.5%. He also lands slightly more first serves (62.3% vs 61.0%).

He is the better returner as well: 35.1% against the first serve to 34.3%, and 55.5% against the second to 53.0%. He converts more break points too (44.6% vs 42.2%).

The form gap is wide: Chidekh is 8–2 in his last 10 against 5–5, and has won 67% of his recent matches against 42%. Kozlov has the slightly better career deciding-set record (60% vs 57%).

Chidekh leads on almost every line, which explains the short price. Kozlov will need to keep it tight and lean on his record in deciding sets.

📊 Tale of the Tape

Metric	Chidekh	Kozlov
Ranking	131	271
Age	25	28
Last 10	8–2	5–5
Head-to-head	0	0
First serves in	62.3%	61.0%
1st-serve points won	68.1%	66.3%
2nd-serve points won	51.5%	48.4%
Break points saved	59.6%	57.5%
Break points converted	44.6%	42.2%
Return points won (career)	43%	42%
Tiebreak win %	53%	47%
Deciding-set win % (career)	57%	60%
Best-of-3 win %	66%	57%

See ATP markets on Polymarket

Costa do Sauipe challenger 2026 (Brazil) 07.11.26

Semifinal previews from the Costa do Sauipe Challenger (clay), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every match. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.

Matches

1. Bueno vs Ugo Carabelli
2. Diaz Acosta vs Seyboth Wild

Gonzalo Bueno vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Costa do Sauipe Challenger · Semifinal · 7 November · 18:00

🧠 Form & Context

Gonzalo Bueno

• 📊 Ranked No. 198 at 22, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 53% of recent matches.
• 🔁 The slightly better returner: 37.1% against the first serve and 53.6% against the second, and 43% of career return points.
• 🚀 Lands 64.4% of first serves. Beat the favourite Midon in the quarterfinals.
• 🏆 Has won 57% of career deciding sets and 54% of tiebreaks.
• ⚠️ Weaker behind the serve: 62.0% on the first and 48.3% on the second, with 55.6% of break points saved. Has converted only 36% of break points recently.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

• 📈 Ranked No. 81 at 27, but 4–6 in his last 10 and winning 38% of recent matches.
• 🚀 The stronger server: 66.5% on the first serve (68% recently) and 49.4% on the second.
• 🔒 Saves 58.9% of break points. Beat Prado Angelo in the quarterfinals.
• 🏆 Has won 59% of career deciding sets, 62% of best-of-three matches and 88% of matches after taking the first set.
• ⚠️ Lands 61.6% of first serves and has converted only 37% of break points in recent matches.

🔍 Match Breakdown

A first meeting. Ugo Carabelli is the 1.33 favourite and is ranked more than 100 places higher.

Ugo Carabelli is the stronger server: 66.5% behind the first serve to 62.0%, 49.4% behind the second to 48.3%, and 58.9% of break points saved to 55.6%. Bueno lands more first serves (64.4% vs 61.6%).

On return there is little between them. Bueno is slightly ahead against the first serve (37.1% vs 35.8%) and the second (53.6% vs 53.3%), and they convert break points at the same rate (44.9% vs 44.6%).

Neither comes in with strong form numbers. Bueno is 5–5 in his last 10 against 4–6 and has won more of his recent matches (53% vs 38%). They have the same deciding-set record this season (56%).

Ugo Carabelli's serve and ranking explain the price. Bueno's slightly better return and recent results are his route into the match.

📊 Tale of the Tape

Metric	Bueno	Ugo Carabelli
Ranking	198	81
Age	22	27
Last 10	5–5	4–6
Head-to-head	0	0
First serves in	64.4%	61.6%
1st-serve points won	62.0%	66.5%
2nd-serve points won	48.3%	49.4%
Break points saved	55.6%	58.9%
Break points converted	44.9%	44.6%
Return points won (career)	43%	42%
Tiebreak win %	54%	53%
Deciding-set win % (career)	57%	59%
Best-of-3 win %	55%	62%

See ATP markets on Polymarket

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Thiago Seyboth Wild

Costa do Sauipe Challenger · Semifinal · 7 November · 19:30

🧠 Form & Context

Facundo Diaz Acosta

• 📈 Ranked No. 72 at 25, a left-hander, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 73% of recent matches.
• 🔁 The better returner: 35.6% against the first serve and 52.8% against the second, and 42% of career return points.
• 🎯 Converts 43.6% of break points.
• 🏆 Has won 70% of deciding sets this season and 63% of best-of-three matches. Beat Cecchinato in the quarterfinals.
• ⚠️ Lands only 59.8% of first serves and saves 59.5% of break points.

Thiago Seyboth Wild

• 🔥 Ranked No. 109 at 26, 9–1 in his last 10 and winning 76% of recent matches.
• 🚀 The stronger server: 70.2% on the first serve (74% recently) and 51.3% on the second.
• 🔒 Saves 61.1% of break points, and 66% in recent matches.
• 🤝 Leads the head-to-head 3–2 and won the most recent, 3–6, 6–2, 6–3 at the Argentina Open in Buenos Aires in 2025. Beat Reis Da Silva in the quarterfinals.
• ⚠️ The weaker returner: 32.4% against the first serve. Has won only 44% of deciding sets this season and 45% over his career.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Their sixth meeting. Seyboth Wild leads 3–2 and won the most recent, 3–6, 6–2, 6–3 at the Argentina Open in 2025. Diaz Acosta won their only hard-court meeting, in Adelaide in 2024. The market cannot split them: both are priced at 1.84.

Seyboth Wild has the slightly bigger serve: 70.2% behind the first serve to 68.6%, more first serves in (61.5% vs 59.8%) and more break points saved (61.1% vs 59.5%). They are level behind the second serve (51.3% vs 51.2%).

Diaz Acosta is the better returner: 35.6% against the first serve to 32.4%, and 52.8% against the second to 50.0%. He also converts more break points (43.6% vs 41.3%).

Seyboth Wild is 9–1 in his last 10 against 6–4 and has won slightly more of his recent matches (76% vs 73%). Diaz Acosta has the far better deciding-set record (70% vs 44% this season, 55% vs 45% career).

A genuine coin flip on price: Seyboth Wild's serve and run of form against Diaz Acosta's return and record in deciding sets, with tiebreaks likely.

📊 Tale of the Tape

Metric	Diaz Acosta	Seyboth Wild
Ranking	72	109
Age	25	26
Last 10	6–4	9–1
Head-to-head	2	3
First serves in	59.8%	61.5%
1st-serve points won	68.6%	70.2%
2nd-serve points won	51.2%	51.3%
Break points saved	59.5%	61.1%
Break points converted	43.6%	41.3%
Return points won (career)	42%	39%
Tiebreak win %	50%	49%
Deciding-set win % (career)	55%	45%
Best-of-3 win %	63%	57%

See ATP markets on Polymarket

Villa Maria challenger 2026 (Argentina) 07.11.26

Semifinal previews from the Villa Maria Challenger (clay), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every match. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.

Matches

1. La Serna vs Kicker
2. Coria vs Olivieri

Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker

Villa Maria Challenger · Semifinal · 7 November · 14:00

🧠 Form & Context

Juan Manuel La Serna

• 📈 Ranked No. 254 at 22, a left-hander, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 66% of recent matches.
• 🔁 The better returner: 39.0% against the first serve and 54.4% against the second, and 45% of career return points.
• 🎯 Converts 47.0% of break points.
• 🏆 Lands 68.1% of first serves and has won 59% of deciding sets this season. Beat Zarate in the quarterfinals.
• ⚠️ Weaker behind the serve: 62.5% on the first and 48.2% on the second. Has won 50% of career tiebreaks.

Nicolas Kicker

• 📊 Ranked No. 340 at 34, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 62% of recent matches.
• 🚀 Stronger behind the serve: 65.4% on the first and 51.2% on the second.
• 🔒 Saves 57.7% of break points. Beat the favourite Roca Batalla in the quarterfinals.
• 🎯 Has converted 51% of break points in recent matches, and won 53% of career tiebreaks.
• ⚠️ The weaker returner: 35.0% against the first serve. Has won 50% of deciding sets this season.

🔍 Match Breakdown

A first meeting between a 22-year-old left-hander and a 34-year-old with a one-handed backhand. La Serna is the 1.66 favourite.

Kicker wins more behind his serve: 65.4% on the first to 62.5%, and 51.2% on the second to 48.2%. He also saves slightly more break points (57.7% vs 56.7%). La Serna lands more first serves (68.1% vs 65.6%).

La Serna is the better returner: 39.0% against the first serve to 35.0%, and 54.4% against the second to 52.9%. He also converts more break points (47.0% vs 44.4%), although Kicker has been sharper in recent matches (51% vs 49%).

The form is with La Serna: 7–3 in his last 10 against 6–4, 66% of recent matches won against 62%, and 59% of deciding sets this season against 50%. Kicker has the slightly better tiebreak record (53% vs 50%).

A close one on paper. La Serna's return and form explain the price, while Kicker's serve and experience can keep it tight.

📊 Tale of the Tape

Metric	La Serna	Kicker
Ranking	254	340
Age	22	34
Last 10	7–3	6–4
Head-to-head	0	0
First serves in	68.1%	65.6%
1st-serve points won	62.5%	65.4%
2nd-serve points won	48.2%	51.2%
Break points saved	56.7%	57.7%
Break points converted	47.0%	44.4%
Return points won (career)	45%	42%
Tiebreak win %	50%	53%
Deciding-set win % (career)	55%	53%
Best-of-3 win %	60%	59%

See ATP markets on Polymarket

Federico Coria vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Villa Maria Challenger · Semifinal · 7 November · 15:30

🧠 Form & Context

Federico Coria

• 📉 Ranked No. 831 at 34, 2–8 in his last 10 and winning 29% of recent matches. Beat Ficovich in the quarterfinals.
• 🚀 Lands 68.6% of first serves and wins 63.3% behind them.
• 🔁 Strong against the second serve: 53.9% of points won. Converts 46.5% of break points.
• 🏆 Has won 75% of deciding sets this season and 61% of best-of-three matches over his career.
• ⚠️ Wins 49.1% behind his second serve and saves 56.2% of break points.

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

• 📊 Ranked No. 257 at 28, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 47% of recent matches. Beat Torres in the quarterfinals.
• 🚀 Wins 49.3% behind his second serve, level with Coria.
• 🏆 Has won 57% of career deciding sets.
• 🤝 Won the most recent meeting, 6–4, 3–6, 7–5 at the Santo Domingo Challenger in 2023.
• ⚠️ Converts 43.4% of break points (41% recently), and saves 55.4% of break points.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Their third meeting, both on clay, level at 1–1. Olivieri won the most recent, 6–4, 3–6, 7–5 in Santo Domingo in 2023. He is the 1.61 favourite.

On serve they are almost identical. Coria lands slightly more first serves (68.6% vs 66.6%), and they are level behind the first (63.3% vs 62.8%) and the second (49.1% vs 49.3%). Coria saves slightly more break points (56.2% vs 55.4%).

They are level against the first serve (36.6% each). Coria is better against the second (53.9% vs 52.5%) and converts more break points (46.5% vs 43.4%).

The form is with Olivieri: 5–5 in his last 10 against 2–8, and 47% of recent matches won against 29%. Coria, though, has won 75% of his deciding sets this season against 52%.

Very little between them on court. Olivieri's form and ranking explain the price, while Coria's record in deciding sets suggests this could go the distance.

📊 Tale of the Tape

Metric	Coria	Olivieri
Ranking	831	257
Age	34	28
Last 10	2–8	5–5
Head-to-head	1	1
First serves in	68.6%	66.6%
1st-serve points won	63.3%	62.8%
2nd-serve points won	49.1%	49.3%
Break points saved	56.2%	55.4%
Break points converted	46.5%	43.4%
Return points won (career)	43%	42%
Tiebreak win %	53%	52%
Deciding-set win % (career)	56%	57%
Best-of-3 win %	61%	56%

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Tennis Form Snapshot Day 171: Semifinal Day and Six Red Flags in Stockholm

PBTennis · Tennis Form Snapshot · Day 171

Saturday Form Radar: semifinal day, and six red flags in Stockholm

Paris is down to four. Stockholm opens with eight matches, and in six of them the market's favourite has the weaker 52-week record. Today's biggest gap is 25 points, with the better-form player at 2.50.

See the full Day 171 board →

27 open matches

11 tournaments

7 wrong-side alerts

6/8 form-backed favs held yesterday

Yesterday's board, checked

Every signal is checked against the next day's draw.

Form-backed favourites went 6 of 8, and all three priced Paris quarterfinal favourites won. Two wrong-side alerts held, at 2.00 and 1.91.

The hard part: the market won the wrong-side battle 4 of 6. One favourite rated 26 points lower than her opponent won again.

D170 signal	Held
Form-backed favourites	6 / 8
Wrong-side alerts	2 / 6
Sub-threshold underdogs	2 / 6
Equal odds, form leader	1 / 2
Near-even odds, major gap	1 / 1

Paris, Hong Kong and Stockholm: one form read open

The prices are public. Our 52-week form read on each match is on the members' board.

Match	Odds	Form read
Paris · Alcaraz vs Ruud	1.17 / 5.00	Form agrees with the market
Paris · Shelton vs van Assche	1.22 / 4.33	🔒 members
Hong Kong · Shubladze vs Liu	1.85 / 1.95	🔒 members
Hong Kong · Eala vs Sakkari	1.73 / 2.10	🔒 members
Chennai · Linette vs Zakharova	1.80 / 2.00	🔒 members
Stockholm · Gojo vs Brunold	1.53 / 2.38	🔒 members
Stockholm · Samuel vs Friberg	1.12 / 5.50	🔒 members

In one of these six locked matches the underdog is slightly ahead on form.

Today's 7 wrong-side alerts

In each of these, the market's favourite is the player in worse form.

Event	Match	Gap
Stockholm ATP	🔒 █████ vs █████	25
Chennai WTA	🔒 █████ vs █████	22
Stockholm ATP	🔒 █████ vs █████	21
Stockholm ATP	🔒 █████ vs █████	14
Stockholm ATP	🔒 █████ vs █████	12
+ 2 more alerts on the members' board

One favourite to watch in Chennai. She has now been the lower-rated favourite three matches in a row and won the first two, against opponents rated 20 and 26 points higher. Today the gap is 22 points and her price is 1.73.

41 boards in

Signal (D130–D170)	Resolved	Rate
Form-backed favourites (favourite wins)	679	73%
Level form at short prices (favourite wins)	249	73%
Sub-threshold underdogs (underdog advances)	307	40%
Wrong-side alerts (underdog advances)	402	37%

Outcomes come from draw progression. These are small samples and not a betting performance record.

Unlock the full Day 171 board

All 27 matches with form tiers, all 7 wrong-side alerts named, the equal-odds flag, form arcs, and the full Excel and DOCX snapshot.

Open on Patreon →

Match-by-match analysis, model review and filtered selections are in the Elite membership.

#Tennis #TennisBetting #ATP #WTA #ATPChallenger #WTA125 #TennisForm #RolexParisMasters #ParisMasters #StockholmOpen #HongKongOpen #Alcaraz #Ruud #Shelton #PBTennis

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Bratislava 2 challenger 2026 (Slovakia) 07.11.26

Semifinal previews from the Bratislava 2 Challenger (indoor hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.

Matches

1. Kym vs Dodig 🔒
2. Svrcina vs Rodionov

Jerome Kym vs Matej Dodig

Bratislava 2 Challenger · Semifinal · 7 November · 12:30

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This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.

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Dalibor Svrcina vs Jurij Rodionov

Bratislava 2 Challenger · Semifinal · 7 November · 14:00

🧠 Form & Context

Dalibor Svrcina

• 📈 Ranked No. 119 at 24, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 59% of recent matches.
• 🔁 The far stronger returner: 38.6% against the first serve and 55.8% against the second, and 45% of career return points.
• 🎯 Converts 48.4% of break points.
• 🤝 Won their only meeting, 6–4, 7–5 on a hard court in Pune in 2025. Beat Mpetshi Perricard in the second round.
• ⚠️ Weaker behind the serve: 62.5% on the first, 44.6% on the second and 54.2% of break points saved. Has won 41% of deciding sets this season.

Jurij Rodionov

• 📊 Ranked No. 142 at 27, a left-hander, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 60% of recent matches.
• 🚀 The much better server: 70.7% on the first serve (73% recently) and 49.8% on the second.
• 🔒 Saves 62.3% of break points, and 66% in recent matches.
• 🏆 Has won 55% of career tiebreaks and 52% of deciding sets this season.
• ⚠️ A weak returner: 29.8% against the first serve and 41.1% of break points converted. Lands only 60.6% of first serves.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Their second meeting. Svrcina won the first, 6–4, 7–5 on a hard court in Pune in 2025. He is the 1.38 favourite.

Rodionov is the much stronger server: 70.7% behind the first serve to 62.5%, 49.8% behind the second to 44.6%, and 62.3% of break points saved to 54.2%. Svrcina lands more first serves (66.1% vs 60.6%).

Svrcina is the far better returner: 38.6% against the first serve to 29.8%, and 55.8% against the second to 50.4%. He also converts far more break points (48.4% vs 41.1%).

Svrcina is 7–3 in his last 10 against 6–4, and they have won almost the same share of recent matches (59% vs 60%). Rodionov has the better record in tight finishes: 52% of deciding sets this season against 41%, and 55% of tiebreaks against 51%.

Server against returner. Svrcina's return and ranking explain the price, while the left-hander's serve could take this deep.

📊 Tale of the Tape

Metric	Svrcina	Rodionov
Ranking	119	142
Age	24	27
Last 10	7–3	6–4
Head-to-head	1	0
First serves in	66.1%	60.6%
1st-serve points won	62.5%	70.7%
2nd-serve points won	44.6%	49.8%
Break points saved	54.2%	62.3%
Break points converted	48.4%	41.1%
Return points won (career)	45%	38%
Tiebreak win %	51%	55%
Deciding-set win % (career)	54%	52%
Best-of-3 win %	57%	57%

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Angola Ladies Open 2026 WTA (Angola) 07.11.26

Semifinal preview from the Angola Ladies Open in Luanda (hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every match. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.

Matches

1. Lansere vs Akugue Noha

Sofya Lansere vs Noma Akugue Noha

Angola Ladies Open · Semifinal · 7 November · 12:30

🧠 Form & Context

Sofya Lansere

• 📈 Ranked No. 266 at 26, 7–3 in her last 10, but winning only 43% of recent matches.
• 🔁 The stronger returner: 42.6% against the first serve and 58.5% against the second, and 49% of career return points.
• 🎯 Converts 50.4% of break points. Beat the favourite Kubka in the quarterfinals.
• 🤝 Won their most recent meeting, 6–1, 6–2 on a hard court in Monastir in 2023.
• ⚠️ Weak on serve: 41.1% behind her second serve (37% recently) and 52.6% of break points saved. Has won only 37% of career tiebreaks and 33% of deciding sets this season.

Noma Akugue Noha

• 📊 Ranked No. 118 at 22, a left-hander, 6–4 in her last 10 and winning 55% of recent matches.
• 🚀 The better server: 61.3% on the first serve and 46.3% on the second, with 63.9% of first serves in.
• 🔒 Saves 55.3% of break points (59% recently). Beat Mikulskyte in the quarterfinals.
• 🏆 Has won 59% of career tiebreaks and 87% of matches after taking the first set.
• ⚠️ The weaker returner of the two: 41.6% against the first serve and 55.8% against the second.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Their third meeting, level at 1–1. Lansere won the most recent, 6–1, 6–2 on a hard court in Monastir in 2023. Akugue Noha is the 1.40 favourite and is ranked almost 150 places higher.

Akugue Noha is the better server. She wins far more behind the second serve (46.3% vs 41.1%), lands more first serves (63.9% vs 61.6%) and saves more break points (55.3% vs 52.6%). They are close behind the first serve (61.3% vs 60.8%).

Lansere is the stronger returner: 42.6% against the first serve to 41.6%, and 58.5% against the second to 55.8%. She also converts more break points (50.4% vs 48.8%).

Lansere is 7–3 in her last 10 against 6–4, but Akugue Noha has won more of her recent matches (55% vs 43%) and more deciding sets this season (50% vs 33%). She also has the far better tiebreak record (59% vs 37%).

Expect plenty of breaks. Akugue Noha's serve and record in tight sets explain the price, while Lansere's return game and her win over Kubka keep her in it.

📊 Tale of the Tape

Metric	Lansere	Akugue Noha
Ranking	266	118
Age	26	22
Last 10	7–3	6–4
Head-to-head	1	1
First serves in	61.6%	63.9%
1st-serve points won	60.8%	61.3%
2nd-serve points won	41.1%	46.3%
Break points saved	52.6%	55.3%
Break points converted	50.4%	48.8%
Return points won (career)	49%	47%
Tiebreak win %	37%	59%
Deciding-set win % (career)	50%	50%
Best-of-3 win %	55%	58%

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Taranto challenger 2026 (Italy) 07.11.26

Semifinal previews from the Taranto Challenger (hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every match. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.

Matches

1. Gill vs Martineau
2. Caniato vs Feldbausch

Felix Gill vs Matteo Martineau

Taranto Challenger · Semifinal · 7 November · 11:30

🧠 Form & Context

Felix Gill

• 📈 Ranked No. 228 at 24, a left-hander, 6–4 in his last 10 but winning 44% of recent matches.
• 🔁 The better returner: 34.6% against the first serve and 52.9% against the second, and 42% of career return points.
• 🎯 Converts 44.5% of break points, and wins 52.0% behind his second serve.
• 🏆 Has won 70% of deciding sets this season, 58% of career tiebreaks and 64% of best-of-three matches. Beat Clarke in the quarterfinals.
• ⚠️ Wins fewer points behind his first serve (67.1%) and has converted only 36% of break points in recent matches.

Matteo Martineau

• 📊 Ranked No. 244 at 27, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 50% of recent matches.
• 🚀 Big first serve: 71.8% of points won, with 64.5% of first serves in.
• 🔒 Saves 60.7% of break points. Beat Mrva in the quarterfinals.
• 🤝 Won their only meeting, 6–4, 6–2 on clay in Sabadell in 2023.
• ⚠️ A weak returner: 31.3% against the first serve and 40.3% of break points converted. Has won 48% of deciding sets this season.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Their second meeting. Martineau won the first, 6–4, 6–2 on clay in Sabadell in 2023. Gill is the 1.72 favourite.

Martineau has the bigger first serve: 71.8% of points won to 67.1%, and slightly more first serves in (64.5% vs 63.0%). Gill is stronger behind the second serve (52.0% vs 48.3%), and they save exactly the same share of break points (60.7%).

Gill is clearly the better returner: 34.6% against the first serve to 31.3%, and 52.9% against the second to 49.9%. He also converts more break points (44.5% vs 40.3%).

Gill is 6–4 in his last 10 against 5–5, although Martineau has won slightly more of his recent matches (50% vs 44%). Gill has the much better record in tight finishes: 70% of deciding sets this season against 48%, and 58% of tiebreaks against 52%.

Expect plenty of holds. Gill's return and record in deciding sets explain the price, while Martineau's first serve can keep him in every set.

📊 Tale of the Tape

Metric	Gill	Martineau
Ranking	228	244
Age	24	27
Last 10	6–4	5–5
Head-to-head	0	1
First serves in	63.0%	64.5%
1st-serve points won	67.1%	71.8%
2nd-serve points won	52.0%	48.3%
Break points saved	60.7%	60.7%
Break points converted	44.5%	40.3%
Return points won (career)	42%	38%
Tiebreak win %	58%	52%
Deciding-set win % (career)	55%	46%
Best-of-3 win %	64%	53%

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Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Kilian Feldbausch

Taranto Challenger · Semifinal · 7 November · 13:00

🧠 Form & Context

Carlo Alberto Caniato

• 📈 Ranked No. 306 at 21, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 59% of recent matches.
• 🚀 The far stronger server: 70.3% on the first serve (75% recently) and 53.4% on the second.
• 🔒 Saves 59.4% of break points, and 63% in recent matches.
• 🏆 Has won 83% of matches after taking the first set.
• ⚠️ A weak returner: 31.8% against the first serve. Has won only 29% of deciding sets this season, 37% over his career and 44% of tiebreaks.

Kilian Feldbausch

• 📊 Ranked No. 262 at 21, 4–6 in his last 10 but winning 63% of recent matches. Beat Nagal in the quarterfinals.
• 🔁 The far stronger returner: 39.9% against the first serve and 55.8% against the second, and 46% of career return points.
• 🎯 Converts 47.2% of break points (49% recently).
• 🚀 Lands 70.6% of first serves. Has won 56% of deciding sets this season.
• ⚠️ Weaker behind the serve: 62.6% on the first, 47.1% on the second and 54.8% of break points saved. Has won only 39% of career tiebreaks.

🔍 Match Breakdown

A first meeting between two 21-year-olds. Feldbausch is the 1.65 favourite and is ranked 44 places higher.

Caniato is the far stronger server: 70.3% behind the first serve to 62.6%, 53.4% behind the second to 47.1%, and 59.4% of break points saved to 54.8%. Feldbausch lands far more first serves (70.6% vs 61.8%).

Feldbausch is the far stronger returner: 39.9% against the first serve to 31.8%, and 55.8% against the second to 50.6%. He also converts more break points (47.2% vs 43.1%).

Caniato is 6–4 in his last 10 against 4–6, but Feldbausch has won slightly more of his recent matches (63% vs 59%) and far more deciding sets this season (56% vs 29%). Neither has a strong tiebreak record (44% vs 39%).

Server against returner. Feldbausch's return and deciding-set record explain the price, while Caniato's serve could make this a very tight match.

📊 Tale of the Tape

Metric	Caniato	Feldbausch
Ranking	306	262
Age	21	21
Last 10	6–4	4–6
Head-to-head	0	0
First serves in	61.8%	70.6%
1st-serve points won	70.3%	62.6%
2nd-serve points won	53.4%	47.1%
Break points saved	59.4%	54.8%
Break points converted	43.1%	47.2%
Return points won (career)	39%	46%
Tiebreak win %	44%	39%
Deciding-set win % (career)	37%	49%
Best-of-3 win %	55%	59%

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Taipei challenger 2026 (Taiwan) 07.11.26

Semifinal previews from the Taipei Challenger (indoor hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.

Matches

1. Shimizu vs Kumstat
2. Wong vs Watanuki 🔒

Yuta Shimizu vs Jan Kumstat

Taipei Challenger · Semifinal · 7 November · 05:00

🧠 Form & Context

Yuta Shimizu

• 📊 Ranked No. 405 at 27, a left-hander, 6–4 in his last 10 but winning 48% of recent matches.
• 🔁 The better returner: 34.7% against the first serve and 52.6% against the second, and 42% of career return points.
• 🎯 Converts 44.8% of break points.
• 🚀 Lands 61.9% of first serves. Beat Jasika in the quarterfinals.
• ⚠️ Weaker behind his first serve (67.9%) and has won 50% of deciding sets this season.

Jan Kumstat

• 🔥 Ranked No. 194 at 19, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 74% of recent matches.
• 🚀 Big first serve: 72.7% of points won, and 76% in recent matches.
• 🔒 Saves 59.8% of break points, and 70% in recent matches.
• 🏆 Has won 68% of career tiebreaks, 66% of deciding sets and 92% of matches after taking the first set. Beat Mayot in the quarterfinals.
• ⚠️ Lands only 56.2% of first serves and converts 39.1% of break points. His career sample is still small.

🔍 Match Breakdown

A first meeting between a left-handed veteran and a 19-year-old. Kumstat is the 1.57 favourite and is ranked more than 200 places higher.

Kumstat has the bigger serve: 72.7% behind the first serve to 67.9%, and 50.9% behind the second to 50.0%. Shimizu lands far more first serves (61.9% vs 56.2%), and they save break points at almost the same rate (59.8% vs 59.2%).

Shimizu is the better returner: 34.7% against the first serve to 31.5%, and 52.6% against the second to 50.1%. He also converts far more break points (44.8% vs 39.1%).

Both are 6–4 in their last 10, but Kumstat has won far more of his recent matches (74% vs 48%). He also has the stronger record in tight finishes: 68% of tiebreaks against 55%, and 66% of career deciding sets against 55%.

Expect plenty of holds. Kumstat's serve and tiebreak record explain the price, while Shimizu's return is his route into the match.

📊 Tale of the Tape

Metric	Shimizu	Kumstat
Ranking	405	194
Age	27	19
Last 10	6–4	6–4
Head-to-head	0	0
First serves in	61.9%	56.2%
1st-serve points won	67.9%	72.7%
2nd-serve points won	50.0%	50.9%
Break points saved	59.2%	59.8%
Break points converted	44.8%	39.1%
Return points won (career)	42%	39%
Tiebreak win %	55%	68%
Deciding-set win % (career)	55%	66%
Best-of-3 win %	60%	61%

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Chak Lam Coleman Wong vs Yosuke Watanuki

Taipei Challenger · Semifinal · 7 November · 06:30

🔒 Members-only read

This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.

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