PBTennis · Tennis Form Snapshot · Day 171
Saturday Form Radar: semifinal day, and six red flags in Stockholm
Paris is down to four. Stockholm opens with eight matches, and in six of them the market's favourite has the weaker 52-week record. Today's biggest gap is 25 points, with the better-form player at 2.50.
27 open matches | 11 tournaments | 7 wrong-side alerts | 6/8 form-backed favs held yesterday |
Yesterday's board, checked
Every signal is checked against the next day's draw.
Form-backed favourites went 6 of 8, and all three priced Paris quarterfinal favourites won. Two wrong-side alerts held, at 2.00 and 1.91.
The hard part: the market won the wrong-side battle 4 of 6. One favourite rated 26 points lower than her opponent won again.
| D170 signal | Held |
|---|---|
| Form-backed favourites | 6 / 8 |
| Wrong-side alerts | 2 / 6 |
| Sub-threshold underdogs | 2 / 6 |
| Equal odds, form leader | 1 / 2 |
| Near-even odds, major gap | 1 / 1 |
Paris, Hong Kong and Stockholm: one form read open
The prices are public. Our 52-week form read on each match is on the members' board.
| Match | Odds | Form read |
|---|---|---|
| Paris · Alcaraz vs Ruud | 1.17 / 5.00 | Form agrees with the market |
| Paris · Shelton vs van Assche | 1.22 / 4.33 | 🔒 members |
| Hong Kong · Shubladze vs Liu | 1.85 / 1.95 | 🔒 members |
| Hong Kong · Eala vs Sakkari | 1.73 / 2.10 | 🔒 members |
| Chennai · Linette vs Zakharova | 1.80 / 2.00 | 🔒 members |
| Stockholm · Gojo vs Brunold | 1.53 / 2.38 | 🔒 members |
| Stockholm · Samuel vs Friberg | 1.12 / 5.50 | 🔒 members |
In one of these six locked matches the underdog is slightly ahead on form.
Today's 7 wrong-side alerts
In each of these, the market's favourite is the player in worse form.
| Event | Match | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Stockholm ATP | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 25 |
| Chennai WTA | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 22 |
| Stockholm ATP | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 21 |
| Stockholm ATP | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 14 |
| Stockholm ATP | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 12 |
| + 2 more alerts on the members' board | ||
One favourite to watch in Chennai. She has now been the lower-rated favourite three matches in a row and won the first two, against opponents rated 20 and 26 points higher. Today the gap is 22 points and her price is 1.73.
41 boards in
| Signal (D130–D170) | Resolved | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Form-backed favourites (favourite wins) | 679 | 73% |
| Level form at short prices (favourite wins) | 249 | 73% |
| Sub-threshold underdogs (underdog advances) | 307 | 40% |
| Wrong-side alerts (underdog advances) | 402 | 37% |
Outcomes come from draw progression. These are small samples and not a betting performance record.
Unlock the full Day 171 board
All 27 matches with form tiers, all 7 wrong-side alerts named, the equal-odds flag, form arcs, and the full Excel and DOCX snapshot.
Open on Patreon →Match-by-match analysis, model review and filtered selections are in the Elite membership.
#Tennis #TennisBetting #ATP #WTA #ATPChallenger #WTA125 #TennisForm #RolexParisMasters #ParisMasters #StockholmOpen #HongKongOpen #Alcaraz #Ruud #Shelton #PBTennis
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