🎾 WTA Madrid: Katie Boulter vs Jasmine Paolini

🎾 WTA Madrid: Katie Boulter vs Jasmine Paolini

🧠 Form & Context

Jasmine Paolini
🇮🇹 The Italian has solidified her position as a legitimate Top 10 contender, following up her Slam breakthrough season with consistent results in 2025. A 15–7 record and back-to-back semifinals in Miami and Stuttgart reflect her rising confidence. Taking out Coco Gauff on clay was no small feat, and her R4 run in Madrid last year laid the foundation for another strong performance here.

Katie Boulter
🇬🇧 It’s taken time, but Boulter finally made it past the opening round on clay, defeating Siniakova in a chaotic three-set battle. Still, her game is clearly more suited to faster surfaces. Madrid’s altitude gives her some help, but her movement and point construction on clay remain a work in progress. She missed February’s swing due to injury and is still looking for rhythm.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a tactical contrast: Paolini brings court coverage, consistency, and clay-court IQ, while Boulter brings raw power and flat hitting. The thin air in Madrid may allow Boulter’s strokes to penetrate more easily, but it’s also likely to exaggerate her unforced error count if she over-presses.

Paolini, on the other hand, has shown she can beat top-tier opponents on clay and isn’t afraid of long rallies. Her ability to turn defense into offense and exploit movement weaknesses should be a key asset against the less clay-tuned Boulter.

Although their head-to-head stands at 2–2, none of those meetings occurred on clay. On this surface, Paolini’s recent form and tactical edge give her the clear upper hand.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Paolini in straight sets
Unless Boulter redlines for a full match, expect the Italian to dictate terms with smart point construction and exploit the Brit’s limited comfort on clay.

🎾 WTA Madrid: Coco Gauff vs Dayana Yastremska

🎾 WTA Madrid: Coco Gauff vs Dayana Yastremska

🧠 Form & Context

Coco Gauff
🇺🇸 Early-season fire, now flickering: Opened 2025 with a 9-match win streak, but has since gone 5–5 across her last five tournaments, including a QF loss to Jasmine Paolini last week in Stuttgart.
🎾 Natural on clay: Despite the recent wobble, Gauff is a proven red-dirt performer—Roland-Garros finalist in 2022, and QF finishes in both Paris and Rome last year.
📍 Madrid comfort: Beat Yastremska here in 2024 and typically performs well against aggressive but inconsistent hitters in early rounds.

Dayana Yastremska
🇺🇦 Long matches, short turnarounds: Needed 2.5 hours to get past Francesca Jones in R1, which could impact her energy levels—especially with her high-octane game style.
📉 Madrid history limited: Has never won back-to-back main-draw matches here and holds a 0–5 career record vs top-10 opponents on clay.
🧭 Upside remains: A finalist in Linz and solid runs in Dubai, AO, and IW hint at improved mental composure—but consistency at elite level still eludes her.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This clash pits raw power against strategic patience—and Gauff holds the edge on both counts, particularly on clay.

Yastremska is most dangerous when she’s dictating, taking time away with early, flat strikes. But Gauff’s elite defense and heavy topspin game are tailor-made to disrupt that rhythm. Her backhand crosscourt, in particular, is a tool that blunts Yastremska’s flatter patterns.

The Ukrainian’s unforced error count remains a liability—45 vs Osaka, over 40 again in R1—and Gauff is well-equipped to absorb pressure and force mistakes. Having already beaten Yastremska twice on clay in the past year, the American enters this match with tactical clarity and surface confidence.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Gauff in straight sets
Yastremska may threaten in short bursts, but Gauff’s blend of stamina, topspin, and point construction should see her through—likely with a break in each set as she steadily wears her opponent down.