Jan-Lennard Struff vs Holger Rune

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Struff vs Rune — US Open 2R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Jan-Lennard Struff (No. 144, age 35)

• 🇩🇪 Veteran big-server, former top-25, now battling back via qualifying.
• 📊 2025: 15–23 overall, 5–9 on hard.
• 🔥 USO run: Won 3 qualies + R1 vs McDonald (3–6, 7–6, 6–3, 6–3). First USO MD win since 2020.
• 🏟️ Slam record: 9 of last 12 2R matches won at majors; last Slam top-20 win = vs Bublik at RG 2024.
• ⚠️ Red flag: 3–19 career vs top-20 opponents at Slams; form streaky and prone to slips from winning positions.

Holger Rune (No. 11, age 22)

• 🇩🇰 Next-gen star, ex-world No. 4.
• 📊 2025: 28–17 overall, 15–7 on hard.
• 🔥 USO R1: Beat Van de Zandschulp 6–3, 7–6, 7–6 — first Slam opener this year won without dropping the first set.
• 🏟️ US Open record: Modest — never past R3, entered 2025 with only one career USO match win.
• ⚠️ Slump watch: Upset losses to Popyrin (Toronto) & Atmane (Cincinnati), but also Cincy QF (wins over Michelsen & Tiafoe).

📜 Head-to-Head

• 2024 Munich SF (clay): Struff def. Rune 6–2, 6–0.
• 2024 UTS exhibition: Rune def. Struff.
• H2H tied 1–1.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Power battle: Struff’s serve/forehand combo can trouble anyone when first-strike patterns land. Rune’s weight of shot is lower outright, but his depth and counterpunching narrow those free-point windows.

Match fitness: Struff rides momentum from four wins (incl. three in qualies) — confidence boost but with mileage. Rune is fresher and comes in with a clean straight-sets R1.

Mental factor: Rune’s New York ceiling hasn’t revealed itself yet (no second week), while Struff is historically pesky in Slam R2s. If the German nicks early breakers or a tiebreak, the crowd could lean into the underdog energy.

Tactical angle: Struff needs short points and a high first-serve clip; serve-volley sprinkles and forehand +1 into open court. If rallies stretch, Rune’s movement, defense-to-offense switches, and backhand redirection should tilt longer exchanges his way.

🔮 Prediction

Rune hasn’t owned NYC yet, but he arrives in better shape than a streaky Struff. Expect the German to surge in patches — likely enough for a set — before Rune’s rally tolerance and return depth wear him down.

Pick: Rune in 4 sets — Struff’s serve can steal a stanza, but Rune’s steadier floor and counterpunching edge the balance.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Serve & first strike: Raw power edge Struff; sustainability edge Rune.
• Baseline tolerance: Rune better over long exchanges; Struff thrives in 1–2 patterns.
• Return pressure: Rune more effective neutralizing second serves; Struff hunts short replies.
• Momentum vs. mileage: Struff’s 4-match run = confidence + fatigue risk; Rune fresher.
• Venue psychology: Rune still proving it in New York; Struff dangerous in R2 slots.