Victoria Azarenka vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

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Victoria Azarenka vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova — US Open 2R

WTA US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Victoria Azarenka (No. 132, age 36)

• 🇧🇾 Former world No. 1, three-time US Open finalist.
• 📊 2025: 10–11 overall (5–6 hard). Only one main-draw win since June before this week.
• 🔥 R1 USO: Edged qualifier Hina Inoue 7–6, 6–4 after a shaky start (three early breaks against).
• 🏟️ New York history: Finals in 2012, 2013, 2020; QF 2014 & 2015; R3 last year.
• ⚠️ Rhythm concerns: No back-to-back MD wins since USO 2024; lighter schedule has dulled week-to-week sharpness.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (No. 45, age 34)

• 🇷🇺 Former top-15; Roland Garros 2021 finalist.
• 📊 2025: 14–13 (6–8 hard). Slam highlight: QF at the Australian Open and Wimbledon.
• 🔥 R1 USO: Survived Yastremska 6–7, 7–6, 6–4, saving match points.
• 🏟️ US Open: QF 2011; frequent R3 runs, including last year.
• ⚠️ Lead-in wobble: 0–3 pre-USO (Ito, Lys, Ruzic), yet tends to peak at majors this season.

🔍 Match Breakdown

• H2H: Azarenka leads 7–2; won the last two (Toronto 2024, Dubai 2023), both in straight sets.
• Azarenka angle: Historic matchup edge and NYC comfort, but serve vulnerability + uneven intensity make early rounds dangerous.
• Pavlyuchenkova angle: Battle-tested from R1; heavier ball and better recent Slam mileage favor her in prolonged exchanges.
• Key factor: Experience in New York (Azarenka) vs 2025 Slam form and fitness (Pavlyuchenkova). Three-set consistency likely decides it.

🔮 Prediction

The rivalry leans Azarenka, but the year’s form says Pavlyuchenkova. If Azarenka spikes her level, the matchup history can carry her; otherwise Pavlyuchenkova’s weight of shot and fresher Slam legs should shade the tight moments.

Pick: Pavlyuchenkova in 3 sets — expect tight, baseline-heavy sets with momentum swings.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Matchup history: Edge Azarenka (7–2), but recency favors Pavlyuchenkova’s Slam form.
• Serve stability: Slight edge Pavlyuchenkova (fewer soft service games of late).
• First-strike vs. weight of shot: Azarenka’s direction + early take vs Pavlyuchenkova’s heavier drive through the court.
• Physical durability over 3 sets: Edge Pavlyuchenkova.
• Intangibles: Azarenka’s New York comfort vs Pavlyuchenkova’s recent clutch wins (saved MPs in R1).