Jiri Lehecka vs Raphael Collignon

🎾 Daily Card, Live-Bet Triggers & Bankroll Builders
Get the full slate and in-play cues on Patreon — early angles + closing-line tracking.

Lehecka vs Collignon — US Open 3R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 3

🧠 Form & Context

Jiri Lehecka (No. 21, age 23)

• 🇨🇿 Czech talent edging closer to consistent Slam breakthroughs.
• 📊 2025: 32–17 overall, 18–8 on hard.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Beat Ćorić (3–1) & Etcheverry (3–1), steadying after slow starts each time.
• 🏟️ Slam record: AO R16 (2023, 2025), Wimbledon SF (2023); never past R3 in New York.
• 📈 Summer hard swing: R16 in Toronto, Cincinnati, Washington — solid volume, no signature scalp.
• ⚠️ Watchpoint: Often drops the opener, relies on mid-match resets and physicality.

Raphael Collignon (No. 107, age 23)

• 🇧🇪 Belgian grinder making a Slam breakthrough.
• 📊 2025: 30–17 overall; 19–10 on clay, just 2–3 on hard before New York.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Galán in straights, then shocked Casper Ruud in 5 sets — career-best win.
• 🏟️ Slam history: Only 2nd Slam main draw (lost to Čilić at Wimbledon 2025).
• 📉 Tour-level: Rarely beyond R1 prior to this week; most success at Challenger level (12 titles).
• ⚠️ Fitness: Coming off a draining five-setter; endurance has been a weak point.

🔍 Match Breakdown

H2H: First meeting.

Match dynamics: Lehecka brings the heavier baseline weight and the bigger serve, plus best-of-five experience. Collignon excels when rallies stretch and patterns repeat, but he may lack the first-strike pop to consistently dislodge Lehecka from the center of the court.

Key angles:
• Starts: Lehecka’s slow openings give Collignon a window to steal Set 1.
• Middle frames: If Lehecka settles, his depth + pace should force shorter exchanges and errors from the Belgian.
• Physical ask: Collignon’s turnaround after the Ruud marathon is a tall order against a bruising ball-striker.

🔮 Prediction

This is Lehecka’s to manage. He owns the power, rhythm control, and Slam seasoning, while Collignon steps into new territory off a huge but taxing upset. Early resistance is live, yet as the pace bites and rallies shorten, the Czech should separate.

Pick: Lehecka in 3 sets — possible tight opener, then scoreboard pressure takes over.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Lehecka steady on hard; Collignon inspired but unproven on hard at this level.
• Weapons: Lehecka’s serve + forehand pace vs. Collignon’s consistency and counterpunching.
• Physicality: Edge Lehecka — fresher legs; Collignon off a 5-setter.
• Tempo control: Lehecka when exchanges are short-to-medium; Collignon prefers elongated patterns.
• Intangibles: Collignon’s Ruud scalp = belief; Lehecka’s Slam reps = composure in the crunch.

Casper Ruud vs Raphael Collignon

🎾 Daily Card, Live-Bet Triggers & Bankroll Builders
Get the full slate and in-play cues on Patreon — early angles + closing-line tracking.

Casper Ruud vs Raphael Collignon — US Open 2R

ATP US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Casper Ruud (No. 12, age 26)

• 🇳🇴 Former US Open finalist (2022); 3-time Slam runner-up.
• 📊 2025: 29–11 (9–5 hard). Titles: Madrid Masters; Dallas finalist.
• 🔥 R1: d. Ofner 6–1, 6–2, 7–6 — no breaks conceded in sets 1–2.
• 📉 Slam 2025: AO R2 (l. Mensik), RG R2 (l. Borges), Wimbledon SF (l. Sinner) — inconsistency showing.
• 💡 Note: Confidence bump from mixed doubles runner-up (with Świątek).
• ⚠️ Watchpoint: Intensity dips in R2 matches — both Slam exits this year came there.

Raphael Collignon (No. 107, age 23)

• 🇧🇪 Challenger breakthrough, top-100 debut in 2025.
• 📊 2025: 29–17 (19–10 clay, 1–3 hard). Still adapting to tour-level hard courts.
• 🔥 R1: d. Galán 6–4, 6–4, 6–4 — composed in maiden USO MD.
• 🏟️ US Open: Main-draw debut.
• ⚠️ Weakness: Only his 2nd tour-level win in 9 tries; limited five-set mileage.

🔍 Match Breakdown

• H2H: First meeting.
• Ruud angle: Heavy topspin FH + reliable serve should push Collignon back and control longer rallies; focus level is the guardrail.
• Collignon angle: Confidence from R1, but hard-court pedigree at this level is thin; needs to shorten points and take early risks.
• Key factor: Ruud’s concentration. Replicate the Ofner level and the matchup tilts sharply his way.

🔮 Prediction

Experience and surface readiness point clearly to Ruud. Collignon may flash patches of clean hitting, but over best-of-five his lack of hard-court reps and stamina profile at tour level are tough hurdles.

Pick: Ruud in 3 sets — a tiebreak cameo is the main danger if Ruud drifts.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Experience & Slam mileage: Clear edge Ruud.
• Surface readiness: Ruud’s hard-court baseline is higher.
• Serve + forehand weight: Ruud by margin.
• Physical over five sets: Edge Ruud; Collignon’s five-set sample is minimal.
• Upset path (Collignon): Red-line early, take time away, hunt short points, and lean on breaker variance.

Daniel Elahi Galán vs Raphael Collignon

🎾 Daily Card, Live-Bet Triggers & Bankroll Builders
Get the full slate, early angles & closing-line tracking on Patreon.

Daniel Elahi Galán vs Raphael Collignon — US Open R1 Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 1

🧠 Form & Context

Daniel Elahi Galán (No. 131, age 29)

• 🇨🇴 Experienced counterpuncher with physical baseline tennis.
• 📊 2025: 33–23 (6–5 hard).
• 🔥 Highlight: Roland Garros R2 as a lucky loser (d. Royer in five).
• 🏟️ US Open: Best of R3 (2022, d. Tsitsipas R1); otherwise Q/R1 exits.
• ⚠️ Recent: Lucky loser again; match-tough from qualies (d. Den Ouden, Maloney; lost to Mochizuki).

Raphael Collignon (No. 107, age 23)

• 🇧🇪 Challenger stalwart with 12 lower-level titles.
• 📊 2025: 28–17 (0–3 on hard at tour level).
• 📉 Tour-level: 7 ATP MDs, six R1 exits. Slam debut at Wimbledon — lost to Čilić in straights.
• 🔥 2024: Monster 77-win season; stalled in 2025 amid fitness issues.
• 💡 Style: Clay-leaning with quick indoor instincts; less reliable outdoors on hard.

📘 Head-to-Head

• Galán leads 1–0 — Canberra 2 Challenger 2025: 6–3, 2–6, 6–2.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Our full tactical angles, value lines, and live-bet cues are available to members.

Read the Members-Only Breakdown

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Rally tolerance & defense: Edge Galán.
• First-strike pop: Slight edge Collignon indoors; neutral outdoors favors Galán’s depth.
• Hard-court pedigree: Edge Galán (NYC experience, prior R3).
• Recent match rhythm: Edge Galán (qualies reps as LL).
• Fragility flags: Collignon’s tour-level R1 pattern vs Galán’s occasional lapses in closing sets.

Numbers lean toward a physical baseline contest decided by depth control and second-serve pressure — full keys and live-bet triggers inside the members’ post.

Raphael Collignon vs Vit Kopriva

🇭🇷 ATP Umag – Round 1

Raphael Collignon vs Vit Kopriva

🧠 Form & Context

Raphael Collignon
📈 The 23-year-old Belgian is enjoying a breakthrough season, breaking into the top 100 in 2025 and making back-to-back Challenger finals earlier in the year.
🥵 However, the clay grind is catching up. Since April, he’s been playing non-stop and signs of fatigue showed in his QF loss in Braunschweig and a first-round exit in Bastad.
💡 He’ll be motivated for revenge here—Collignon lost to Kopriva in straight sets at the Naples Challenger this spring.
🌱 This is his Umag debut, but his 14–7 clay record in 2025 suggests he's comfortable on the surface.

Vit Kopriva
🧠 At 28, Kopriva brings a seasoned Challenger and ATP grinder’s résumé. He’s compiled a 20–8 clay record this season, with a runner-up finish in Naples and a QF in Marrakech.
🏋️ His recent form is promising—he qualified for Bastad and nearly took out Jesper de Jong in the second round.
🦵 One caution: he retired in Hamburg earlier this summer. His durability remains a question mark if the match drags out.
⚖️ He’s more battle-tested at this level, having navigated multiple ATP main draws and Grand Slam five-setters, including a win over Thiago Monteiro at Roland Garros.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This matchup pits Collignon’s flash and upside against Kopriva’s craft and clay know-how.

Collignon possesses the bigger game—especially his inside-out forehand, which can dominate rallies. But under pressure, he’s still prone to overhitting and inconsistent decisions. His second serve can also be targeted, especially on slower surfaces.

Kopriva, by contrast, is a clay-court textbook—solid off both wings, mixing spins, depth, and changes of pace effectively. He’ll look to extend points and draw errors, particularly on the Belgian’s backhand side. If conditions are humid or slow, that will favor Kopriva’s rhythm-based play even more.

The fatigue factor leans against Collignon, whose 2025 campaign has already exceeded 50 matches. Meanwhile, Kopriva has paced himself better and may also benefit from his previous win over Collignon earlier this season.

🔮 Prediction

Raphael Collignon is nearing full-time ATP-level status, but this particular draw is not ideal. Kopriva’s steadiness, experience, and prior head-to-head win suggest he has the edge—especially in a long baseline battle.

Prediction: Kopriva in 3 sets – A competitive match with momentum swings, but the Czech’s tactical edge and experience should see him through.

ATP Hamburg – Raphael Collignon vs Brandon Nakashima

ATP Hamburg – Raphael Collignon vs Brandon Nakashima

🧠 Form & Context

Brandon Nakashima
🧊 Has struggled to find traction on clay—entered the European swing with 12 wins on the year but added just two since April.
🏃 Low momentum, with one of those wins coming in the Bordeaux Challenger (vs. Kukushkin) before falling to Basilashvili.
🌍 Limited European clay exposure—this is his debut in Hamburg and his game remains more suited to faster, lower-bounce conditions.
🔍 Tried to gain dirt familiarity last year with a QF run at the Turin Challenger, but consistent rhythm on clay has remained elusive.

Raphael Collignon
📈 A rising Belgian who recently cracked the ATP Top 100, thanks to consistent Challenger-level performances.
🚪 Earned his spot in Hamburg’s main draw through qualifying—beating Zahraj and Dutra da Silva in straight sets.
🏆 Already claimed his first ATP main-draw win this year in Marrakech over Fabio Fognini, and looks primed to add more.
🌱 Raised on European clay—natural movement, patient rally tolerance, and comfort with sliding give him the stylistic edge.

🔍 Match Breakdown

While Nakashima leads the head-to-head 1–0, that match wasn’t on clay and came before Collignon’s recent ranking surge. Nakashima’s game—built on flat groundstrokes and aggressive court positioning—doesn’t thrive on slower surfaces, where movement and spin control are paramount.

Collignon has the advantage in clay-court instincts and enters with confidence from qualifying. He’ll aim to extend points, disrupt Nakashima’s timing, and test his patience. If the Belgian holds his nerve under pressure and makes this a physical contest, the match could swing his way.

Nakashima still brings more tour-level experience, but if he doesn’t start assertively, Collignon could slowly grind him down.

🔮 Prediction

A classic clash between surface comfort and ATP pedigree. Nakashima might survive with guile and grit—but Collignon is a dangerous opponent if he senses weakness.
🧩 Prediction: Brandon Nakashima in 3 sets — but the upset threat is real if Collignon plays with freedom.

🎾 ATP Marrakech: Collignon vs Borges

🎾 ATP Marrakech: Collignon vs Borges – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🟩 Raphael Collignon

• 🔥 Challenger surge: Won 9 of his last 11 matches, including a final in Naples and a strong R1 win over Fognini.
• 🎾 2025 record: 10–6 overall, with a 1–1 mark on clay this season.
• 🧱 Surface adaptation: Typically excels on indoor hard courts, but showing solid adjustment to clay.
• 🚀 Breakout year: Recently cracked the Top 100—confidence is growing fast.

🟥 Nuno Borges

• 🔁 Mixed consistency: 13–10 in 2025 overall, but lacking rhythm and momentum on clay so far.
• 🏖️ Clay wait continues: Yet to win a match on the surface this year—still searching for traction.
• 🧗‍♂️ Tour experience: Two ATP titles in the last two seasons and steady presence in the Top 50.
• 📉 Potential fatigue: Deep Phoenix SF run followed by quick exits in Indian Wells and Miami.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This matchup features a contrast in rhythm and narrative—Collignon is rising fast, while Borges is looking to stabilize. The Belgian comes in with strong form, confidence from high-altitude Challenger success, and momentum from his first-round win over Fognini.

Borges holds the edge in tour-level experience and clay-court composure, but has yet to show much form on the surface in 2025. He will try to lengthen points and test Collignon’s discipline, particularly if the Belgian begins to misfire early.

But Collignon has the tools—an effective first serve, clean hitting from the backhand side, and the confidence of a player climbing fast. If he can dictate with early ball striking, he has the weapons to trouble Borges throughout.

🔮 Prediction

Pick: Collignon in 3 sets

Borges could steady the ship with his experience, but Collignon’s recent form, shotmaking, and belief make him a dangerous underdog. If Borges doesn’t adapt quickly to clay, expect the Belgian to pull off the upset.

🎾 ATP Marrakech: Fognini vs Collignon

🎾 ATP Marrakech: Fognini vs Collignon

🧠 Form & Context

🟨 Fabio Fognini

• 🎭 Veteran flair, fading edge: At 37, no longer at his peak, but flashes brilliance.
• ⛅ Inconsistent 2025: Just 1–4 this season, with tight losses and only one Challenger win.
• 🧱 Clay master: 451 career clay wins; former Monte Carlo champ—clay is his home.
• 🇮🇹 Marrakech experience: Quarterfinalist in 2024—knows how to manage these conditions.

🟫 Raphael Collignon

• 📈 On the rise: Ranked No. 91 with a 9–6 record in 2025 so far.
• 🔥 Indoor form, clay-tested: 9–3 on indoor courts this year, adjusting to clay slowly.
• 🧠 Tactically smart: Great return game and good shot selection—frustrates erratic opponents.
• 🌍 Marrakech debut: First ATP main draw here—must adapt to the stage and surface.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Fognini’s shotmaking and court sense can swing matches quickly, but his form and physical durability are question marks. Collignon, while less flashy, is mentally composed and thrives on consistency.

If Fognini comes out focused and lands early breaks, the match could tilt in his favor. But if rallies get extended or momentum swings, Collignon’s calm and conditioning may wear down the Italian.

🔮 Prediction

Pick: Collignon in 3 sets

It’s youth vs. experience. Fognini may produce highlights, but Collignon’s steadiness, return game, and confidence should see him through in a tight one—possibly with a tiebreak involved.