Mattia Bellucci vs Carlos Alcaraz

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Bellucci vs Alcaraz — US Open 2R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Mattia Bellucci (No. 65, age 24)

• 🇮🇹 Lefty, finally stabilizing in the ATP top 70.
• 📊 2025: 22–25 overall, 8–10 on hard.
• 🔥 Slam track: Wimbledon R3 this year (d. Lehecka, l. Norrie). USO: R1 (2024), R2 here after Shang retired.
• 💡 Game: Solid from the baseline with serve variation; lacks a true finishing weapon at elite level.
• ⚠️ Underdog reality: 0–2 lifetime vs top-5, both straight-set defeats.

Carlos Alcaraz (No. 2, age 22)

• 🇪🇸 5-time Slam champion, reigning Roland-Garros winner, recent Cincinnati Masters champion.
• 📊 2025: 55–6 overall, 22–1 on clay, 17–4 on hard.
• 🔥 USO 1R: Beat Opelka 6–4, 7–5, 6–4 — disciplined performance, no lapses.
• 🏟️ US Open record: Champion (2022), SF (2023), shock R2 exit (2024 vs Van de Zandschulp).
• ⚡ Motivation: New York redemption + keeping pace with Sinner in 2025 major count.

📜 Head-to-Head

• 2020 Futures: Alcaraz won 6–2, 6–1 (early-career meeting).
• H2H: Alcaraz leads 1–0.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Serve & rally tolerance: Bellucci’s lefty angles can bother some, but Alcaraz’s footwork, early contact, and explosive forehand neutralize those patterns quickly.

Mentality shift: After Wimbledon disappointment, Alcaraz has dialed down the exhibition flair — more discipline, fewer lapses, cleaner shot selection.

Bellucci’s path: He must play first-strike tennis, take time away on return, and stretch sets. Without a top-tier finishing blow, sustaining scoreboard pressure is the problem.

Likely scenario: One competitive set if Alcaraz briefly loosens focus; otherwise the Spaniard’s athleticism and pace control should dominate.

🔮 Prediction

Bellucci is improving, but this matchup is lopsided. Expect Alcaraz to manage energy, shorten points with forehand + transition, and move on cleanly.

Pick: Alcaraz in 3 sets — maybe one close stanza (TB or 7–5), but overall a comfortable passage.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Ceiling: Massive edge Alcaraz.
• Serve patterns: Bellucci lefty variety vs Alcaraz’s elite return depth.
• First-strike vs sustain: Bellucci needs quick points; Alcaraz thrives both short and extended.
• Movement: Clear edge Alcaraz — defense-to-offense switches.
• Momentum: Alcaraz locked-in after a solid R1; Bellucci grinding but outgunned.