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Jessica Pegula vs Anna Blinkova — US Open 2R Preview
WTA US Open
Hard Court
Round of 64
🧠 Form & Context
Jessica Pegula (No. 4, age 31)
- 🇺🇸 Home favorite, 2024 US Open finalist.
- 📊 2025: 38–16 (23–9 hard). Titles: Charleston, Austin, Bad Homburg.
- 🔥 R1: Settled quickly — 6–0, 6–4 vs Mayar Sherif after a shaky midsummer stretch.
- 🏟️ Slam reliability: Since 2021, only four pre-R3 exits — extremely consistent early in majors.
- 💡 Game: Flat backhand drives, sharp return, patience in longer rallies.
- ⚠️ Watchpoint: Occasional late-tournament mental dips, rarely relevant this early.
Anna Blinkova (No. 80, age 26)
- 🇷🇺 Former top-40 with volatile week-to-week form.
- 📊 2025: 23–22 (9–10 hard). QFs in Linz, Austin, Eastbourne.
- 🔥 R1: Finally broke her NY duck — 6–3, 6–1 over Starodubtseva after seven straight USO 1R losses.
- 🏟️ Slams: Last reached R3 at AO 2024.
- ⚠️ Trouble vs elite: 3–11 vs top-5 — tends to get overpowered and pushed into defense.
🔍 Match Breakdown
- 🤝 H2H: Pegula leads 4–1, including a routine 6–2, 6–2 in Austin 2025.
- 🎯 Pegula’s edge: Heavier, cleaner baseline weight + elite return; thrives in New York conditions with crowd boost.
- 🧪 Blinkova’s path: High first-serve % and early-strike aggression to disrupt rhythm; if pinned back, her level usually tails off.
- 📈 Form context: Pegula’s midsummer dip is mitigated by her Slam consistency; Blinkova’s R1 was positive but against a qualifier well below Pegula’s tier.
🔮 Prediction
On paper and by matchup, this is Pegula’s to control. Blinkova’s relief win could free her up for patches of shot-making, but Pegula’s tactical stability and return pressure should keep the scoreline comfortable.
Pick: Pegula in straight sets (something like 6–3, 6–2).
📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)
- Form trend: Pegula steadying after R1; Blinkova buoyed by a long-overdue NY win.
- Surface fit: Slow-medium USO hard suits Pegula’s backhand drive + return.
- First-strike vs. squeeze: Pegula squeezes with depth/pace; Blinkova needs first-strike success to avoid defense.
- Serve/return matrix: Big edge Pegula on second-serve returns and pressure points.
- Mental notes: Pegula reliable early rounds; Blinkova’s confidence fragile vs top-tier.
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