Roman Safiullin vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

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Roman Safiullin vs Felix Auger-Aliassime — US Open R2 Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 2

🧠 Form & Context

Roman Safiullin (No. 94, age 28)

• 🇷🇺 Talented but inconsistent baseliner, dangerous in patches.
• 📊 2025: 13–19 overall, 9–11 on hard.
• 🔥 USO R1: Beat Monfils 6–4, 2–6, 6–1, 3–6, 6–4 in a rollercoaster 5-setter.
• 🏟️ USO record: R2 in 2023 (lost to Paul in 5) & 2024 (lost to Arnaldi).
• ⚠️ Slam struggles: Let winnable matches slip at AO (Kokkinakis) & Wimbledon (Darderi).
• 💡 Style: Clean hitter, heavy backhand; fitness & composure in 5-setters remain issues.

Felix Auger-Aliassime (No. 27, age 25)

• 🇨🇦 Former world No. 6, USO semifinalist in 2021.
• 📊 2025: 32–20 overall, 17–8 on hard. Titles in Montpellier & Adelaide.
• 🔥 USO R1: d. Harris 6–4, 7–6, 6–4 — but faced 10 break points, showing fragility.
• 🏟️ Slam 2025: Yet to progress beyond R2 (AO R2, RG R1, Wim R2).
• ⚠️ Form: Mixed year — 2 titles & Cincy QF, but also poor losses and inconsistency.
• 💡 Watchpoint: First USO win since 2022, breaking streak of opening-round exits. Needs to build confidence.

H2H: Auger-Aliassime leads 1–0 (2022 Marseille SF, 7–6 7–6).

🔍 Match Breakdown

Full tactical breakdown (serve dynamics, rally length impact, live-bet triggers, and totals/handicap analysis) is available for Patreon members.

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Gael Monfils vs Roman Safiullin

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Monfils vs Safiullin — US Open R1 Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 1

🧠 Form & Context

Gael Monfils (No. 49, age 38)

• 🇫🇷 One of the tour’s great entertainers, still competing at 38.
• 🏆 Oldest ATP champion ever (Auckland 2025). Also R16 at AO & Miami.
• 📊 Record: 18–13 this year (14–7 hard).
• 📉 Post-Miami slump: Just 4 wins across 9 events since April; R1 losses in Washington & Toronto.
• 🏟️ US Open: Four-time QF, 2016 SF. Only R1 defeat came on debut (2005 vs Djokovic).
• ⚠️ Fitness issues remain a concern.

Roman Safiullin (No. 94, age 28)

• 🇷🇺 Solid baseliner with heavy groundstrokes.
• 📊 Record: 12–19 in 2025 (8–11 hard). Only 2 top-50 wins all year.
• 📉 Slam struggles: 0–3 in 2025 majors. Notably collapsed vs Darderi at Wimbledon after winning first set.
• 🏟️ US Open: Best = R2 (2023, 2024).
• ⚠️ Tends to fade in longer matches; confidence issues late in sets.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Monfils has the Slam pedigree, shot variety, and muscle memory in New York. The downside is patchy form and fitness lapses. Safiullin has fresher legs but hasn’t built belief against stronger opposition this season.

The tactical core: Monfils will counterpunch, feed off the crowd, and make Safiullin hit extra balls. The Russian needs to shorten points, dictate with his forehand, and capitalize on second serves. If it turns into a long grind, the edge tilts back to the veteran.

The X-Factor is the Arthur Ashe crowd. Monfils has long thrived under its lights, while Safiullin’s big-stage record is thin.

🔮 Prediction

With both men struggling for rhythm, Monfils’ Slam record and ability to raise his level in New York swing the balance. Safiullin could grab a set if he comes out hot, but the Frenchman’s experience and crowd lift should see him through.

Pick: Monfils in 4 sets — Experience > Safiullin’s inconsistency.

Safiullin vs Rune

ATP Cincinnati — Roman Safiullin vs Holger Rune

Hard Court • Form & Context Overview

🧠 Form & Context

Holger Rune

⚡ Mixed start to US Open Series – Toronto R16 loss to Popyrin after strong early rounds, but physical drop-off in deciding set reignited fitness concerns.

📈 Elite ceiling, fragile floor – When healthy, Rune produces top-tier wins (Indian Wells SF, Barcelona title), but recurring physical dips have led to premature exits.

🏆 Cincinnati history – 2024 semifinalist, beating Berrettini and Draper before falling to Tiafoe. Must defend 360 points this week.

✅ Favorable matchup – Leads H2H 2–0 (Rotterdam 2024, Brisbane 2024), winning both without major trouble.

Roman Safiullin

🔄 Season of struggle – 12–17 W–L in 2025, only one instance of back-to-back tour wins (Miami).

🎯 First-round boost – Beat returning Tabilo in straights for just his 12th win this season; looks to snap a 0–4 run vs top-20 opponents this year.

💥 Upset potential – Has big-match pedigree (past wins over Alcaraz, Tsitsipas), especially on quicker courts when serve and forehand click.

⚠ Inconsistency risk – Often fades after strong starts; needs to manage unforced error count to challenge Rune over the long haul.

🔍 Match Breakdown

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🇷🇺 Roman Safiullin vs 🇨🇱 Alejandro Tabilo

🎾 ATP Cincinnati – First Round Preview

🇷🇺 Roman Safiullin vs 🇨🇱 Alejandro Tabilo

🧠 Form & Context

• Roman Safiullin
  • 💪 Consistent activity: Though sitting at 11–17 on the year, Safiullin has stayed healthy and in rhythm—something not to overlook at this stage of the season.
  • ⚡ Miami spark: Beat Brooksby and Popyrin to make R3—his only tour-level back-to-back wins of 2025 so far.
  • 🎾 Hard-court base: 7–9 on hard this season, with most matches being long, tactical affairs—he’s proven his grind game holds up.
• Alejandro Tabilo
  • ⏸ Long layoff: Missed the entire grass season and more with injury/off-court issues, leaving him undercooked for high-level matches.
  • 🔄 Sluggish 2025: Only 2–5 on hard this year; nowhere near the form that saw him reach world No. 19 last season.
  • 🆚 Ranking reset: Now outside the top 100 with virtually no points to defend—pressure is off, but rust is real.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This matchup is all about contrast: Safiullin brings rhythm and grind, while Tabilo brings uncertainty and latent explosiveness.

Safiullin will look to extend rallies, test Tabilo’s movement, and push him deep behind the baseline. His backhand may not flash winners, but it’s rock-solid, and his fitness is one of his quiet weapons. Expect long exchanges and physical pressure.

Tabilo can absolutely turn it on when locked in—his lefty forehand is a weapon, and his aggressive court positioning can flip points fast. But with no recent match play, expect mistimed swings and inconsistency in longer rallies.

Unless Tabilo comes out red-lining and keeps it up for two sets straight, this is a dangerous matchup for someone still playing catch-up in terms of rhythm. Safiullin will absorb pressure, then turn the screws when Tabilo dips—even slightly.

🔮 Prediction

Safiullin’s been in the trenches all season, and that pays off here. His match toughness and clean baseline structure should be too much for a rusty Tabilo to overcome without a warm-up phase. Expect a tug-of-war early, but the Russian to pull away late in both sets.

🧩 Pick: Safiullin in 2 tight sets.

Hard court form + fitness > raw talent without rhythm. The smart play is the steady hand.

Casper Ruud 🇳🇴 vs Roman Safiullin 🇷🇺

🎾 Casper Ruud 🇳🇴 vs Roman Safiullin 🇷🇺 – ATP Toronto R2 Preview

📍 National Bank Open · Round of 32 · Outdoor Hard

🧠 Form & Context

Casper Ruud (ATP #13)

• 🤕 Fitness watch: Skipped the entire grass season due to a knee injury. Returned to the court in Gstaad but managed only an R16 win followed by a QF loss.
• 🏆 Hard-court history: Runner-up at US Open and champion in San Diego (2023). Toronto has been fruitful—QF in 2021, SF in 2022.
• 📉 Current form: Still finding rhythm post-injury; looked physically labored in Gstaad and was bagelled in his French Open R2 loss.

Roman Safiullin (ATP #82)

• 🔄 Rollercoaster year: 11–16 in 2025, with little momentum on any surface. Toronto R1 win helped lift his hard-court record to 7–8 this year.
• 🚀 Flashes of promise: Notable Miami run (R3) and Shanghai 2024 Top-20 win, but hasn’t strung together consistent ATP wins.
• 🎯 Big opportunity: With Ruud rusty and no head-to-head record, the Russian has a prime chance to land a statement win.

🔍 Match Breakdown

• Serve & Return: Safiullin has a solid but not overpowering serve, which Ruud can attack if he’s moving well. Ruud’s own serve, post-injury, lacks its usual bite—this could open up break chances.
• Baseline Battle: Ruud’s loopy, high-bouncing forehands force errors, but Safiullin’s flatter, more aggressive ground game may trouble Ruud if he can take time away early in rallies.
• Mental Dynamics: Ruud knows how to grind through three-setters and excels in North America. Safiullin must capitalize early if he’s to tilt momentum his way.
• Physical Concerns: Both players have something to prove—Ruud's mobility post-knee issue vs Safiullin’s ability to win extended rallies at this level.

🔮 Prediction

Expect a gritty contest with momentum swings. Ruud's tactical savvy and past experience at this tournament give him the edge—though it may not be pretty. Once he settles, his depth and forehand weight should pull him through.

💡 Pick: Casper Ruud in 3 sets (6–4, 3–6, 6–3)
🎯 Consider Over 22.5 Games or Ruud -1.5 Games Handicap if odds are favorable.

Luciano Darderi vs Roman Safiullin

ATP Wimbledon – 1st Round
Luciano Darderi vs Roman Safiullin

🧠 Form & Context

• Luciano Darderi
  🌱 Still adjusting to grass: Competitive in all three recent losses (vs Jarry, Tsitsipas, Giron).
  💪 Encouraging signs: Took sets off Berrettini and Cilic at Hurlingham, showing improved feel.
  📉 Grand Slam struggles: Just 1 win in last 5 Slams; still searching for consistency on big stages.
  🎾 Tough out: 3 of his last 4 losses have gone the distance—hard to put away.


• Roman Safiullin
  🎢 Form crash: 1–7 record entering Wimbledon, far from his 2023 level.
  🎯 Loves Wimbledon: QF in 2023, R3 in 2024, thrives in SW19’s rhythm and conditions.
  🚨 Recent stumbles: Losses to Engel, Perricard, Medjedovic show how fragile his game is right now.
  🧠 High-risk profile: Big serve and forehand when hot—but falls apart fast when rushed.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Contrast defines this clash—Darderi’s slow-burning confidence vs Safiullin’s volatile firepower. The Italian has been quietly improving, and his ability to stretch points with high bounce and clever serving makes him annoying to face on grass.

Safiullin, meanwhile, has Wimbledon pedigree and a stronger natural game for fast courts. But he enters under pressure and without recent success. If he starts erratic, Darderi’s steadiness could be a trap.

Expect long service games, unpredictable momentum shifts, and tiebreaks. The Russian has the edge in experience and peak level, but if this becomes a grind, Darderi is fully capable of flipping the narrative.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Safiullin in 4 sets – he rides the Wimbledon wave again, but Darderi makes him work for every inch.

Watch for live-bet value if Darderi takes a set early—this could easily swing into deep territory.

🎾 ATP Mallorca – Round 2 Preview Roman Safiullin vs Hamad Medjedović

🎾 ATP Mallorca – Round 2 Preview

Roman Safiullin vs Hamad Medjedović

Can the Russian find his footing, or will the Serbian serve-bot power into another quarter-final?

🌟 Form & Context

Roman Safiullin
🔄 Struggling for rhythm this year (10–14); lone grass win came yesterday vs Müller, but tie-breaks still feel shaky.
💥 Seeking first quarter-final of 2025.

Hamad Medjedović
🚀 Breakout indoor champ (11–2) now translating pop-gun serve to grass; 20–10 overall in 2025.
🏹 Dominated Basavareddy 6–0 6–4 in R1; chasing his third QF of the season.

🎾 Match Breakdown

• First-strike battle: Safiullin must win with serve + forehand early or he gets dragged behind the baseline.
• Quick-trigger tennis: Medjedović thrives on short rallies—big kick serve sets up forehand bombs and chip-charges.
• Footwork difference: Hamad slides well into low balls on grass, while Safiullin often struggles on directional shifts.
• Key stat: Since March, Medjedović is 12–3 on hard/grass when landing 65 %+ of first serves.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Medjedović in 3 tight sets
Safiullin may make it physical, but the Serbian’s serve-plus-one weapons and sharper grass adaptation give him the edge in key moments.

📊 Tale of the Tape

• 2025 W/L: Safiullin 10–14 • Medjedović 20–10
• Grass Record (2025): Safiullin 1–2 • Medjedović 2–1
• Head-to-Head: First meeting

🎾 ATP Mallorca – Round 1 Preview Alexandre Muller vs Roman Safiullin

🎾 ATP Mallorca – Round 1 Preview

Alexandre Muller vs Roman Safiullin

Can Muller adapt his clay-built baseline craft to grass, or will Safiullin's quick-strike patterns rule the day?

🧠 Form & Context

Alexandre Muller
🏆 Maiden ATP title in Hong Kong (January) propelled him into the top 40.
🔥 Clay swing highlight: upset of Alexander Zverev in Hamburg before falling in the QF.
🌾 Grass résumé is thin — just one match this swing (straight-set loss to Bublik in Halle).
🔙 Trails 0-2 in the head-to-head and has yet to solve Safiullin’s first-strike patterns.

Roman Safiullin
⏬ Sluggish 9-14 season, yet still owns a Wimbledon QF (2023) and likes quick lawns.
⚔️ Two razor-thin grass defeats this month (Mpetshi Perricard in Stuttgart, Engel in Halle qualies).
🧠 Holds a 2-0 H2H edge over Muller, including a straight-sets win at Paris-Bercy last fall.
💡 Needs a result here to stop ranking slide—Mallorca R16 in 2023 offers good memories.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Serve + Return: Safiullin’s heavier first serve and willingness to chip-charge should earn him more free points; Muller leans on placement and quick backhand redirects.
Baseline Patterns: Muller prefers grinding clay-style rallies; Safiullin excels when he shortens exchanges with forehand lasers.
Grass IQ: Safiullin’s prior Wimbledon heroics and Mallorca run suggest better movement on low bounces; Muller still learning optimal court positioning.
Mental Edge: Two previous wins give Safiullin confidence, while Muller’s recent tiebreak struggles (1-8 since April) loom large if sets tighten.

🔮 Prediction

Muller’s 2025 rise is real, but most success came on slower surfaces. Safiullin’s game is built for grass, and his serve-plus-forehand combination should pay dividends. Expect the Russian to impose early and survive a late push.

Prediction: Safiullin in 2 tight sets

📊 Tale of the Tape

• H2H: Safiullin leads 2-0 (last win at Paris-Bercy 2024)
• 2025 W/L: Muller 16–13 • Safiullin 9–14
• Grass W/L (Career): Muller 2–5 • Safiullin 12–10
• Best 2025 Result: Muller (Hong Kong Title) • Safiullin (AO R32)

🇷🇺 Roman Safiullin vs 🇫🇷 Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

🎾 ATP Stuttgart – First Round

🇷🇺 Roman Safiullin vs 🇫🇷 Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

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🧠 Form & Context

Roman Safiullin

• 🔄 Trying to reset: Just 9 wins in 2025 (9–12 record), with early exits in Madrid, Rome, and Roland-Garros.
• 🌱 Grass-court experience: 13–9 career record on the surface, but no match wins on grass so far in 2025.
• 🇩🇪 Stuttgart struggles: Lost in R1 last year and failed to qualify in 2022–23.
• 🔧 Still a dangerous all-court player when on rhythm, but confidence and momentum are lacking at the moment.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

• 📈 Rising quickly: 21-year-old has climbed into the top 40 with aggressive performances in 2024–25.
• 🚀 Power game: 6–1 clay record this year, 5–5 on hard, and 1–0 start on grass after win in Hamburg.
• 💪 Recent scalps: Beat Auger Aliassime and Bublik in Hamburg; strong challenger runs this spring.
• 📊 12–5 career record on grass is respectable, but Stuttgart main draw history is limited to last year’s R1 loss.

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🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a classic contrast of styles. Safiullin has a solid all-round baseline game with decent court craft and smooth transitions. However, he lacks the raw firepower that Mpetshi Perricard brings to fast surfaces like grass.

The young Frenchman’s booming serve and forehand make him a nightmare to face on grass. He hits through the court, and his win over Bublik in Hamburg showcased his improved shot tolerance and poise under pressure.

Safiullin has better variety and is more comfortable rallying, but he’ll struggle to break serve or neutralize Mpetshi Perricard’s rhythm unless he returns exceptionally well. If this becomes a serve-dominated contest, the Frenchman holds the aces.

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🔮 Prediction

Mpetshi Perricard's upward trajectory, combined with his recent form and confidence on faster surfaces, makes him the clear favorite. Safiullin is capable of clutch moments, but the matchup doesn’t suit him.

✅ Pick: Mpetshi Perricard to win in straight sets – a few tight moments, but the serve will carry the Frenchman through
🎯 Bonus leans:

• Set betting: Mpetshi Perricard 2–0
• Over/Under: Under 23.5 games (if tiebreak avoided)
• Handicap: Mpetshi Perricard -3.5 games

ATP French Open R1: Frances Tiafoe vs Roman Safiullin

ATP French Open R1: Frances Tiafoe vs Roman Safiullin

🧠 Form & Context

🇺🇸 Frances Tiafoe

• ⚖️ Hot Starts, Cold Follow-Ups: Owns a 10–2 first-round record in 2025, but just 2–8 in second rounds—suggesting inconsistency beyond opening matches.
• 🇺🇸 Houston Heroics Aside: His only notable 2025 run came at home in Houston—outside of that, he’s failed to perform at top-20 standards.
• 🧱 Paris Puzzle: Roland Garros remains a struggle—just four main-draw wins across ten appearances at the French Open.
• 🧨 Clay Limitations: His flatter game struggles to adapt to clay’s slower pace and longer rallies, making this swing traditionally his weakest.

🇷🇺 Roman Safiullin

• 📉 Slipping Form: After some promising play earlier in the year, Safiullin’s recent level has dipped—especially during the clay swing.
• 🚫 Flat Clay Results: Suffered straight-set defeats to Rinderknech and Bublik, failing to assert himself from the baseline.
• 🔥 Upside Still Real: Has 8 career wins over top-20 players, including a victory over Tiafoe in Shanghai 2023—shows he can rise to big occasions.
• 🧱 Wild Card Factor: His compact backhand, quick strike ability, and solid shot tolerance make him dangerous—even if clay isn’t ideal.

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🎾 ATP Rome: Alexander Bublik vs Roman Safiullin

🎾 ATP Rome: Alexander Bublik vs Roman Safiullin – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

Alexander Bublik

• Madrid spark: Took out Rublev and Popyrin en route to the R16—his first standout showing of 2025.
• Ranking motivation: Currently ranked No. 76 with few points to defend—urgent need to rebound.
• Surface skepticism: Historically underwhelming on clay, but can be unplayable when locked in.
• Rome woes: Poor 1R record, including last year’s upset loss to Borges despite a bye.

Roman Safiullin

• Up-and-down season: 9–10 in 2025 with no sustained form—struggled with rhythm and closing out leads.
• Mental dips: Madrid loss to Rinderknech added to confidence issues.
• Masters upside: Most of his ATP wins in 2025 have come at Masters-level events.
• Clay concerns: Still adjusting to slower surfaces—less effective footwork and point control on dirt.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a match between the unpredictable and the inconsistent. Bublik, if engaged, has a significantly higher ceiling with his serve, improvisation, and variety. His performance in Madrid hinted at renewed motivation and focus. Safiullin, on the other hand, brings a more structured game but lacks sharpness and confidence, especially on clay.

The outcome could swing based on early momentum. Safiullin has a 2–0 H2H lead, but Bublik has the edge on current form and the X-factor advantage on a slow surface that rewards feel and variety.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Bublik in 3 sets. Expect a rollercoaster, but the Kazakh’s recent uptick and superior creativity should be enough to break the H2H and survive a gritty Safiullin challenge.

🎾 ATP Madrid: Roman Safiullin vs Arthur Rinderknech

🎾 ATP Madrid: Roman Safiullin vs Arthur Rinderknech – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇷🇺 Roman Safiullin

• Back in form: After a winless early stretch in 2025, Safiullin picked up steam at Indian Wells and Miami, making the third round in the latter.
• Clay return: Reached the semifinals at the Oeiras Challenger last week in his first clay-court appearance of the year—signs of renewed momentum.
• Madrid success: Made it to R3 here in 2023 as a qualifier with standout wins over Tommy Paul and Nicolás Jarry.
• Streaky but dangerous: A high-ceiling player who can beat top-tier opponents when dialed in, though inconsistency can sometimes derail his campaigns.

🇫🇷 Arthur Rinderknech

• Confidence crisis: Just 4–13 on the season, including two losses in Barcelona—once in qualifying, once as a lucky loser.
• Clay struggles: Yet to find rhythm on the surface in 2025 and continues to look uncomfortable adjusting to slower conditions.
• Masters struggles: Holds a poor 5–12 record in Masters 1000 first rounds, lacking success at this tier.
• Madrid woes: Lost in the opening round last year to Shevchenko in a tight three-setter and is still seeking his first main draw win here.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Both players are searching for form, but Safiullin enters with a much clearer trajectory. He’s fresh off a semifinal showing in Oeiras, has positive memories in Madrid, and holds a dominant 2–0 head-to-head record against Rinderknech.

Rinderknech may find some altitude aid for his serve, but his baseline game, footwork, and decision-making have looked suspect. Safiullin, by contrast, thrives in quicker clay conditions and will look to step in, take time away, and pressure the Frenchman into errors. Unless Rinderknech serves lights out and forces tiebreaks, this could be a one-sided affair.

🔮 Prediction

Pick: Roman Safiullin in 2 sets

With better form, surface comfort, and past Madrid results, the Russian should dispatch an out-of-sorts Rinderknech without much drama.