Casper Ruud vs Raphael Collignon

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Casper Ruud vs Raphael Collignon — US Open 2R

ATP US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Casper Ruud (No. 12, age 26)

• 🇳🇴 Former US Open finalist (2022); 3-time Slam runner-up.
• 📊 2025: 29–11 (9–5 hard). Titles: Madrid Masters; Dallas finalist.
• 🔥 R1: d. Ofner 6–1, 6–2, 7–6 — no breaks conceded in sets 1–2.
• 📉 Slam 2025: AO R2 (l. Mensik), RG R2 (l. Borges), Wimbledon SF (l. Sinner) — inconsistency showing.
• 💡 Note: Confidence bump from mixed doubles runner-up (with Świątek).
• ⚠️ Watchpoint: Intensity dips in R2 matches — both Slam exits this year came there.

Raphael Collignon (No. 107, age 23)

• 🇧🇪 Challenger breakthrough, top-100 debut in 2025.
• 📊 2025: 29–17 (19–10 clay, 1–3 hard). Still adapting to tour-level hard courts.
• 🔥 R1: d. Galán 6–4, 6–4, 6–4 — composed in maiden USO MD.
• 🏟️ US Open: Main-draw debut.
• ⚠️ Weakness: Only his 2nd tour-level win in 9 tries; limited five-set mileage.

🔍 Match Breakdown

• H2H: First meeting.
• Ruud angle: Heavy topspin FH + reliable serve should push Collignon back and control longer rallies; focus level is the guardrail.
• Collignon angle: Confidence from R1, but hard-court pedigree at this level is thin; needs to shorten points and take early risks.
• Key factor: Ruud’s concentration. Replicate the Ofner level and the matchup tilts sharply his way.

🔮 Prediction

Experience and surface readiness point clearly to Ruud. Collignon may flash patches of clean hitting, but over best-of-five his lack of hard-court reps and stamina profile at tour level are tough hurdles.

Pick: Ruud in 3 sets — a tiebreak cameo is the main danger if Ruud drifts.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Experience & Slam mileage: Clear edge Ruud.
• Surface readiness: Ruud’s hard-court baseline is higher.
• Serve + forehand weight: Ruud by margin.
• Physical over five sets: Edge Ruud; Collignon’s five-set sample is minimal.
• Upset path (Collignon): Red-line early, take time away, hunt short points, and lean on breaker variance.