Leandro Riedi vs Francisco Cerúndolo

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Leandro Riedi vs Francisco Cerúndolo — US Open 2R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Leandro Riedi (No. 435, age 23)

• 🇨🇭 Swiss shotmaker, back on the main tour after a difficult injury-plagued year.
• 📊 2025 record: 16–7 overall, 9–4 on hard.
• 🔥 USO run: Qualified without dropping a set, then earned his first-ever Slam MD win vs Pedro Martínez in straights.
• 📉 Context: Missed large parts of 2025 and retired twice since May. Fitness remains fragile, but upside is real — Top-100 ball-striking when healthy.
• 🏟️ Slam record: 0–2 before this week — already a career-best Slam result.

Francisco Cerúndolo (No. 19, age 27)

• 🇦🇷 Established Top-20, clay weight-of-shot but increasingly effective on hard.
• 📊 2025 record: 32–18 (11–5 on hard).
• 🔥 Highlights: Miami QF, Madrid SF, Bastad SF, Toronto R16.
• ⚠️ Recent struggles: Physically off in July (losses to Darderi, Taberner) and retired in Toronto. In USO R1, rallied from 6-3, 6-2, 3-1 down vs Arnaldi to win in 5.
• 🏟️ US Open history: Never beyond R2 (five-set losses in 2023 & 2024).

🔍 Match Breakdown

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Francisco Cerúndolo vs Matteo Arnaldi

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Francisco Cerúndolo vs Matteo Arnaldi — US Open R1 Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 1

🧠 Form & Context

Francisco Cerúndolo (No. 19, age 27)

• 🇦🇷 Argentina’s top player; peaked early in 2025 with strong Masters/250 runs.
• 📉 Current form: 5 wins across last 7 events; rough losses (Taberner in Umag, Borges at Wimbledon) and a retirement vs Zverev in Toronto (abdominal).
• 🏟️ US Open: 2R in 2023 & 2024 (2–3 overall in NYC).
• ⚠️ Watchpoint: lingering fitness doubt + shaken confidence.

Matteo Arnaldi (No. 64, age 24)

• 🇮🇹 Big-stage performer who embraces Slam pressure.
• 📊 US Open: R16 on debut (2023), R3 in 2024 — loves New York vibe.
• 📉 Form dip: three-match skid (Bonzi, Van de Zandschulp, Zverev); looked flat in Winston-Salem.
• 💡 Upside: fearless vs higher ranks (d. Auger-Aliassime in 5 at Roland Garros). Proven grinder.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Cerúndolo’s A-game is built on forehand weight and patient counterpunching from the ad corner. When healthy, his hard-court level travels — remember the Miami/Indian Wells surges this year. The rub: an abdominal niggle can cap serve pop and rally stamina; if the legs fade, the error rate rises.

Arnaldi’s lane is intensity and length: stretch exchanges, force extra balls, and make Cerúndolo prove the body. He’s comfortable on the Slam stage and won’t blink at scoreboard pressure. If he drags this into a physical, 3-hour grind, the Italian’s resilience and NYC track record come alive.

On script, Cerúndolo dictates with FH patterns and holds enough under fire. Off script, Arnaldi’s depth and rally tolerance turn this into a coin-flip war of attrition.

🔮 Prediction

Volatile matchup: “healthy Fran” likely wins clean; “compromised Fran” meets a live dog in Arnaldi. Lean the former — with turbulence.

Pick: Cerúndolo in 4 sets, with real upset equity for Arnaldi if this becomes a long, physical scrap.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• First-strike forehand: Edge Cerúndolo when timing is on.
• Rally length & legs: Longer favors Arnaldi’s engine.
• Serve health: Cerúndolo’s abdominal status = key swing factor.
• Slam composure: Arnaldi comfortable in New York; Cerúndolo needs a clean start.
• Momentum: Both trending down; micro-edges decided by physicality on the day.

Jaume Munar 🇪🇸 vs Francisco Cerúndolo 🇦🇷

🎾 Jaume Munar 🇪🇸 vs Francisco Cerúndolo 🇦🇷 – ATP Montreal R2 Preview

📅 National Bank Open · Outdoor Hard · Wednesday, July 31

🧠 Form & Context

Jaume Munar (ATP #51)

• 🌟 Hard-court rise: Broke into the top 50 earlier this summer after years as a clay specialist.
• 📈 US Open Series gains: 2R in Washington, followed by a dominant 6–3, 6–0 R1 win here in Montreal.
• 🔨 Hard-court record: 7–5 in 2025, with multiple wins over top-50 players—his best surface stats to date.

Francisco Cerúndolo (ATP #24)

• 📉 Confidence dip: Lost 7 of his last 10 matches, including an opening-round shock in Umag.
• 🏆 Hard-court potential: Reached QFs at Indian Wells and Miami earlier this year; overall 8–4 on hard in 2025.
• ⚖️ Form slump: Struggling to reset after a draining clay season and a recent lack of match wins.

🔍 Key Matchup Points

• Current form vs pedigree: Munar carries momentum and hard-court confidence, while Cerúndolo is trying to rediscover rhythm.
• Surface adjustment: Munar’s improved movement and depth on hard courts give him a competitive edge against Cerúndolo’s looser baseline game.
• Head-to-head dynamics: Cerúndolo leads overall, but most clashes were on clay—this hard-court setting resets expectations.

🔮 Prediction

Munar is playing with freedom and form on hard courts, while Cerúndolo looks mentally and tactically off his peak. Expect a tight start, but Munar’s physicality and consistency should allow him to wear down the Argentine in a deciding set.

🧩 Predicted Result: Jaume Munar def. Francisco Cerúndolo – 4–6, 6–4, 6–3

Francisco Cerúndolo 🇦🇷 vs. Carlos Taberner 🇪🇸

🎾 ATP Umag 2025 – Round of 16 Preview

Francisco Cerúndolo 🇦🇷 vs. Carlos Taberner 🇪🇸

📍 Umag | 🗓️ July 23 | 🟤 Clay

🧠 Form & Context

Francisco Cerúndolo
🏆 Defending champion: Won Umag in 2024 and looks right at home on the Croatian clay.
🧱 Clay-court pedigree: 21–10 on the surface in 2025, including three semifinal runs in Madrid, Bastad, and Munich.
🔁 Workhorse season: Already played 45 clay matches this year—yet remains physically and mentally locked in.
🎯 Top-tier scalps: Owns clay wins over Zverev, Ruud, and Jarry in 2025—arguably a top-10 clay performer this season.

Carlos Taberner
🚜 Challenger clay warrior: 29–15 on clay this year, but the vast majority at the Challenger level.
🧗‍♂️ ATP step-up: Took out Herbert in R1 and reached a final in Sassuolo recently, but rarely faces players of Cerúndolo’s caliber.
📊 Limited vs top 30: Struggles against high-tier competition—needs help from opponent errors to compete.
🪶 Fighter mindset: Physically tough and rallies well, but lacks the weapons to dictate points at this level.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This matchup is all about whether Cerúndolo shows up focused. He has all the tools to dominate: a heavy forehand, aggressive court positioning, sharp angles, and a comfort level with Umag’s court speed. His return game should put Taberner under consistent pressure, especially on second serve.

Taberner will look to hang in the rallies and extend points with depth and height. But unless Cerúndolo dips into passive patterns or shows signs of fatigue from his clay-heavy calendar, the Spaniard’s style likely won’t hold up.

The Argentine’s ability to open the court and hit through clay makes him hard to break down, especially for someone like Taberner who lacks an elite shot to disrupt rhythm. One tight set is possible, but it would take a drop in intensity from the defending champ to create real danger.

🔮 Prediction

Taberner is a seasoned clay-courter at Challenger level, but Cerúndolo is simply playing a different game on the ATP stage. With momentum, experience, and tactical clarity on his side, expect the Argentine to control the match from the baseline.

Prediction: Cerúndolo in 2 sets – one tight set possible, but class and firepower should win the day.

Cerúndolo vs Dzumhur

🇸🇪 ATP Bastad – Quarterfinal

Francisco Cerúndolo vs Damir Dzumhur

🧠 Form & Context

Francisco Cerúndolo
The Argentine is putting together another strong clay campaign in 2025. With a 28–15 overall record and 20–9 on clay, Cerúndolo continues to solidify his position as a steady force on the surface. He’s already made semifinals in Madrid (taking out Zverev and Ruud), and also went deep in Munich, Indian Wells, and Miami.

Bastad has been particularly kind to him. He won the title here in 2022 and reached the semifinals in 2023, showing a clear affinity for the conditions. His Round 2 win this week over Navone (6–3, 6–3) was efficient and composed, suggesting he’s locked in again.

Damir Dzumhur
At 33, Dzumhur is enjoying a veteran revival. He’s worked his way back inside the top 70 thanks to consistent Challenger results and solid ATP 250 performances. With a 19–14 record on clay this season, including a third-round run at Roland Garros and a solid showing in Madrid, he’s proving his rally tolerance and fitness still play.

This week, he’s earned two gritty comeback wins over Sebastian Ofner and Hugo Gaston, showcasing his fighting spirit. While he did retire in Stuttgart earlier this summer and has had patchy fitness, he looks fresh in Bastad and is playing with freedom.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a classic case of shotmaking vs scrambling.

Cerúndolo has the bigger weapons—his forehand can dominate neutral rallies, and he’s improved his point construction and variety on clay. He’ll look to dictate with depth and avoid letting Dzumhur drag him into too many long exchanges.

Dzumhur, on the other hand, excels in disrupting rhythm. He mixes in drop shots, angles, and off-speed balls that frustrate more powerful opponents. If he can extend points and sneak a set, he could turn this into a dogfight.

Still, Cerúndolo’s been efficient against players ranked outside the top 40 this year on clay. Unless he suffers a mid-match dip or gets drawn into grinding rallies, he should keep things under control.

🔮 Prediction

Dzumhur has had a great run, but Cerúndolo is simply a level above in firepower and clay-court pedigree. Expect the Bosnian to keep it close early, but Cerúndolo should settle in and pull away.

🧩 Projected score: Cerúndolo wins 7–5, 6–4
Confidence: ★★★☆☆ (moderate)

Francisco Cerúndolo vs Nuno Borges

ATP Wimbledon – 1st Round
Francisco Cerúndolo vs Nuno Borges

🧠 Form & Context

• Francisco Cerúndolo
  📉 Cooling off: After a top-20 climb with four semis early in the year, he’s on a 3-match losing streak entering SW19.
  🍀 Grass struggles: Won Eastbourne in 2023 but hasn’t claimed a grass-court victory since. Five straight grass losses.
  💥 Risky aggression: Forehand is a weapon but misfires often on grass. Needs rhythm to be effective.
  🏛️ Slam record: 3R in Australia, early exit in Paris. Needs a result to halt the confidence slide.


• Nuno Borges
  ✅ Consistent workhorse: 14 first-round wins in 17 events this year, including solid showings on hard and clay.
  🌱 Grass uptick: QF at ‘s-Hertogenbosch with wins over Virtanen & Basavareddy. Took sets off top players in June.
  🚫 Wimbledon woes: 0–3 in 1R here, including a loss to Cerúndolo in 2023.
  🧠 Match IQ: Tactically mature, thrives in rallies, and drags opponents into physical contests.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a true clash of form vs potential. Cerúndolo has the bigger game and already beat Borges at Wimbledon before, but his grass court confidence is shot. Borges, in contrast, has been rock-solid across surfaces and looks more settled on grass than ever before.

The Argentine must strike early with heavy forehands and avoid falling into long rallies. If he does, his shot-making edge should carry him. But Borges has the fitness and mental edge to expose any dip in focus or movement—and if it goes deep, he may well flip the script.

This one will turn on early momentum. Cerúndolo needs a fast start; Borges wants a war.

🔮 Prediction

It’s high ceiling vs high floor. Borges could easily grind out a five-set win if Cerúndolo’s inconsistency lingers. But with a slight edge in raw tools and past success in this matchup, the Argentine scrapes through—barely.

Prediction: Cerúndolo in 5 sets – Borges will test him every step, but the Argentine escapes—just.

🎾 ATP Madrid: Francisco Cerúndolo vs Harold Mayot

🎾 ATP Madrid: Francisco Cerúndolo vs Harold Mayot

🧠 Form & Context

Francisco Cerúndolo
🇦🇷 The Argentine has quietly built one of the more consistent 2025 campaigns on tour. He’s reached the quarterfinals or better in 6 of his 9 tournaments this year, including a semifinal showing in Munich, where he pushed Ben Shelton to three sets. Last year, Madrid was his coming-out party at the Masters level, as he took out Tommy Paul and Alexander Zverev en route to the quarterfinals. He returns this week in great form, confident in his ability to defend those points and potentially go even further.

Harold Mayot
🇫🇷 The Frenchman is enjoying a breakthrough moment in Madrid. After qualifying with solid wins over Alexander Shevchenko and Mathys Erhard, he advanced to the second round after Corentin Moutet retired in their opener. It’s his first Masters 1000 main-draw win, but he’s 0–8 in career matches vs Top 50 opponents and has never taken a set in those encounters. While crafty and quick, Mayot lacks the weapons that typically trouble elite clay-courters like Cerúndolo.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Cerúndolo is a polished clay specialist—his heavy topspin, composure in long rallies, and court positioning are tailor-made for altitude clay like Madrid’s. He’s shown he can handle both big hitters and tricky disruptors, and his recent performances suggest he’s only growing more confident.

Mayot’s best route is to vary the tempo and look for surprise moves—drop shots, early backhand takes, and net rushes—but Cerúndolo has the patience and defensive tools to handle that. This match marks a significant step up in opposition for Mayot, and unless the Argentine is flat, it’s a steep mountain to climb.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Cerúndolo in straight sets
Cerúndolo should dominate the tempo and rhythm, especially in the second set once he adjusts to Mayot’s pace changes. Expect a professional, composed performance from the Argentine as he continues his strong clay campaign.