🎾 WTA Madrid: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina

🎾 WTA Madrid: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇧🇾 Aryna Sabalenka

• ⚔️ Battle-tested: Needed over 2.5 hours and saved 13 of 16 break points to edge Marta Kostyuk in a tense double-tiebreak quarterfinal.
• 🎯 Madrid masterclass: Has reached four finals in the last five editions of the Madrid Open (Champion in 2021 & 2023, runner-up in 2024).
• 🏆 Title machine: Already owns 5 finals this season (Brisbane, Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Stuttgart) and boasts a 29–5 W/L record in 2025.
• 🌱 Only clay titles: Both career clay titles came here in Madrid, a testament to how well her power game translates to this high-altitude clay.

🇺🇦 Elina Svitolina

• 🧱 Semifinal streak: Has won 11 consecutive clay matches this season (Rouen title, 4 wins in Madrid), dropping zero sets and saving all 7 break points in Madrid.
• 📈 Madrid breakthrough: Reaches her first semifinal above WTA 250 level since 2019 and her first-ever in Madrid, after 9 prior early exits.
• 🔥 Steady climb: Since returning from maternity leave, she's made 3 finals on clay and firmly re-established herself as a top-20 player.
• 🎯 Quality scalps: Defeated former finalist Elena Rybakina and Maria Sakkari en route, albeit most opponents ranked outside the top 50.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Aryna Sabalenka may not have been flawless this fortnight, but she has demonstrated a critical edge: survival in high-pressure moments. Saving set points in both sets vs. Kostyuk, she showed the composure of a two-time major champion and a three-time Madrid finalist.

Svitolina, on the other hand, arrives with immaculate rhythm on clay and zero lost sets since the start of April. Her backhand is finding corners, her serve is consistent, and her shot tolerance is back to pre-maternity levels. Yet, she’s played no top-5 opponent in this run and now faces the most relentless hitter on tour.

Madrid’s fast clay favors Sabalenka’s attacking style, helping neutralize Svitolina’s counterpunching. However, if the Belarusian struggles physically after that draining quarterfinal or her forehand misfires early, the Ukrainian has more than enough consistency and match sharpness to capitalize.

🔮 Prediction

Sabalenka’s power and Madrid pedigree are undeniable, but Svitolina’s clay-court form and tactical discipline make this a potential upset spot.

🧩 Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in 3 sets – the top seed survives another grinder, but not without a serious test from one of the WTA's most determined veterans.

🎾 WTA Madrid: Coco Gauff vs Iga Swiatek

🎾 WTA Madrid: Coco Gauff vs Iga Swiatek – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇵🇱 Iga Swiatek

• 🫣 Shaky campaign: Three of her four Madrid matches have gone to three sets, including a rare 0-6 set loss to Madison Keys in the quarterfinals—her first since 2021.
• 💪 Clutch recovery: Bounced back in that match to win 0-6, 6-3, 6-2, reminding everyone of her mental resilience.
• 🎯 Madrid record: Defending champion and 2023 runner-up; stands 2-0 in Madrid semifinals.
• 🛑 Recent semis struggle: Has lost her last five semifinal appearances since Roland-Garros 2024.
• 🌱 On clay: 29–2 on clay since the start of 2024, and still the gold standard despite some visible vulnerability.

🇺🇸 Coco Gauff

• 🔁 Turnaround story: Opened her Madrid campaign with a 0-6 set loss to Yastremska—has since won eight straight sets.
• 🔥 Breakthrough in Madrid: Reaches her first Madrid semifinal after previously failing to go beyond the last 16.
• 💪 Clay credentials: Has reached five clay-court semifinals (2–3 W/L) and was the 2022 Roland-Garros runner-up.
• ⏳ Slow 2025 start: This is her first semifinal of the season, following a title-laden finish to 2024 (Beijing, WTA Finals).

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a matchup steeped in history, yet the dynamics are beginning to shift. Iga Swiatek once dominated Coco Gauff, winning their first seven meetings without dropping a set. But Coco has won two of their last three, including in Riyadh and at the United Cup.

That said, clay is Iga’s kingdom. Their most recent clay meeting at Roland-Garros 2024 was a clear-cut 6-2, 6-4 win for the Pole. Her heavy topspin forehand and relentless movement make her nearly untouchable on this surface—when she’s on form.

However, cracks have shown in Madrid. Swiatek has dropped sets to three different opponents, and the 0-6 opener to Keys exposed how vulnerable she can be against pure power hitters—a category Gauff comfortably belongs to.

Gauff has looked increasingly confident throughout the week. Her serve has held up (more than 80% first-serve points won vs. Andreeva), and her forehand—often her liability—isn’t leaking errors like before. Still, her ability to hang with Swiatek in clay-court rallies remains in question, especially when Iga locks into rhythm.

🔮 Prediction

Despite Gauff’s improved form and two recent wins in the rivalry, this is Swiatek’s surface, Swiatek’s venue, and Swiatek’s moment to end her semifinal drought. If she avoids a slow start and gets depth on Gauff’s forehand wing, she should have the edge.

🧩 Prediction: Iga Swiatek in 3 sets – expect Coco to push hard, but Swiatek to summon her champion’s mettle and clay-court pedigree when it matters.

🎾 ATP Madrid: Francisco Cerúndolo vs Jakub Mensik

🎾 ATP Madrid: Francisco Cerúndolo vs Jakub Mensik – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇦🇷 Francisco Cerúndolo

• 🔁 Zverev Slayer: Took out the two-time Madrid champion Alexander Zverev for the third time in three meetings—this time in straight sets.
• 📈 Red-hot clay form: Now 23–9 on the season and has reached at least the quarterfinal in three of the four Masters events this year (IW, MC, Madrid).
• 🏆 Consistency rewarded?: Despite consistent deep runs, he's still searching for a title in 2025. Madrid offers his most favorable path yet.
• 🧱 Quarterfinal hurdle: Lost three QFs already this season—including Madrid 2024 to Fritz after a big R16 win over Zverev. Can he finally break through?

🇨🇿 Jakub Mensik

• 🚀 Miami miracle momentum: Shocked the world by winning his maiden Masters title in Miami, beating Novak Djokovic en route.
• 🔥 9-match Masters win streak: Carried the wave to Madrid, winning every set so far—including a clinical 6-1, 6-4 over Ben Shelton.
• 🎯 Efficient progress: Just 18 years old, yet already into his third Masters QF—without ever looking overwhelmed.
• 🧊 Calm under pressure: Plays with composure beyond his years and has shown a knack for handling power players.

🔍 Match Breakdown at https://t.co/6Boa0HtFBX

🎾 ATP Madrid: Casper Ruud vs Daniil Medvedev

🎾 ATP Madrid: Casper Ruud vs Daniil Medvedev – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇷🇺 Daniil Medvedev

• 🧩 Mentally resilient: Despite ongoing struggles in 2025, Medvedev has avoided major meltdowns this clay swing and managed to win ugly—even in frustrating three-setters.
• 🎯 Madrid milestone: Recovered from a poor start to defeat Brandon Nakashima 3-6, 6-1, 6-4, reaching his second consecutive quarterfinal in the Spanish capital.
• 📉 2025 blues: One of his most difficult seasons on tour—without a title and with multiple early exits—but still maintains a top-10 ranking due to scattered deep runs (5 QFs).
• 🏟️ Clay redemption: After years of openly disliking clay, Medvedev’s steady results—especially his 2023 Rome title—have added new respectability to his red-dirt résumé.

🇳🇴 Casper Ruud

• 💪 On a mission: Dropped out of the top 10 after failing to defend finalist points from Monte Carlo and Barcelona, but responded well in Madrid with a clean run to the quarters.
• 🧱 Straight-set operator: Beat Korda and Fritz without losing a set—demonstrating solid baseline control and consistency throughout.
• 🏆 Quarterfinal king on clay: Holds a perfect 6–0 record in quarterfinals at Masters clay events, including a Madrid QF win in 2021.
• 🧮 Ranking motivation: With 2024 Roland-Garros semifinal and Geneva title points looming, Ruud needs every opportunity now to rebuild his position inside the top 10.

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