🇦🇺 Ajla Tomljanović vs 🇱🇻 Anastasija Sevastova

🇦🇺 Ajla Tomljanović vs 🇱🇻 Anastasija Sevastova – WTA Montreal R1 Preview

🎾 Monday, July 28 · WTA 1000 Montreal · Outdoor Hard

🧠 Form & Context

Ajla Tomljanović 🇦🇺

• 🎾 Hard-court specialist: 6–5 on hard in 2025, but still looking for her first main-draw win since Roland-Garros
• 🏃‍♀️ Tough grass stretch: Failed to advance past qualifying at four straight events; suffered R1 losses in Berlin and Bad Homburg
• 📍 Montreal record: 1–4 career W-L; aiming for her first Round 2 appearance here

Anastasija Sevastova 🇱🇻

• 🏥 Inspirational return: Came back from ACL surgery and maternity leave to reach Madrid R3 and Rabat QF
• 🔄 Form dip since May: Winless since Rabat, including two grass-court losses; fitness remains in question
• 📉 Ranking drop: Once world No. 11, now No. 386; back in Montreal main draw for the first time since reaching QF in 2018

🔍 Match Breakdown

Serve & Return: Tomljanović’s kick serve and deep ball trajectory will push Sevastova off balance; the Latvian will need to lean on her slice return to stay neutral early in points.

Baseline Dynamics: Sevastova brings tactical variation, drop shots, and spins that can disrupt rhythm, but Tomljanović’s flat-striking will dictate if she finds her range.

Physical Edge: Tomljanović has the clear fitness advantage. Long rallies and directional shifts will likely wear down Sevastova if her movement isn’t 100%.

🔮 Prediction

Tomljanović’s match sharpness and hard-court comfort should carry her through. Sevastova may challenge with her creativity, but fitness and timing lean Ajla’s way in both sets.

🧩 Pick: Ajla Tomljanović def. Anastasija Sevastova 6–4, 7–5

Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Boulter

🎾 WTA London – First Round

Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Boulter

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🧠 Form & Context

Ajla Tomljanovic

• 🧗‍♀️ Gritty qualifier: Fought through two qualifying rounds, saving three match points against Zhang Shuai and coming back from a set down in both matches.
• ⛅ Inconsistent 2025: Semifinalist in Austin and Rabat, but suffered early losses in 7 of her last 10 events.
• 🌱 Grass-court credentials: Six career QFs on grass, including back-to-back Wimbledon quarterfinals (2021, 2022). Flat strokes adapt well to grass.
• 💪 Match rhythm: Has two recent wins on grass, giving her a clear feel for court speed and bounce.

Katie Boulter

• 🏠 Home court heroine: Winner of Nottingham in both 2023 and 2024; thrives on British grass.
• 📈 Post-injury momentum: Returned with a six-match win streak and WTA 125 title before reaching Round 2 at Roland Garros.
• 🛑 No grass matches yet: Enters without match prep on grass this year—early rust possible.
• 🔥 Offensive toolkit: Her serve, height, and attacking forehand make her dangerous on fast surfaces, especially with home crowd backing.

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🔍 Match Breakdown

• Tomljanovic holds the edge in match readiness, having played on this surface already.
• Boulter’s game is more naturally suited to grass, and her success in UK events is no coincidence.
• This may hinge on the first set—if Boulter finds her range early, she can dominate. If Ajla slows the tempo and extends rallies, she has a shot.

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🔮 Prediction

Both women have credible paths to victory. But Boulter’s power, home crowd energy, and grass court history suggest she has the higher ceiling—even if she starts slow.

🧩 Prediction: Boulter in 3 sets. Also consider Over 21.5 games or Tomljanovic +1.5 sets as safer betting angles.

WTA French Open – Jasmine Paolini vs Ajla Tomljanovic

WTA French Open – Jasmine Paolini vs Ajla Tomljanovic

🧠 Form & Context

Jasmine Paolini
🔥 Still riding the wave: 2024’s Roland-Garros and Wimbledon finalist is back in Paris as the world No. 4 and hasn’t missed a beat in 2025.
🏆 Big wins recently: Champion in Rome (WTA 1000), semifinalist in Miami and Stuttgart — proving she’s not just a one-surface wonder.
🎾 Hard-fought R1: Took the long route against Yuan Yue (6-1, 4-6, 6-3), but her fighting spirit prevailed.
🧱 Slam evolution: Went from never reaching a Grand Slam R3 to back-to-back finals in 2024 — she’s the real deal now.

Ajla Tomljanovic
🩹 Fitness concerns linger: Retired in Rabat SF due to physical issues, but returned strong in R1 here, beating the same opponent (Maya Joint) who had gotten the walkover.
📉 Mixed season: Despite semifinals in Austin and Rabat, she has yet to find consistent top-level rhythm post-injuries.
⏪ Slam rewind: Her best Roland-Garros run came in 2014 (R4) — a decade ago. Since then, 2R exits have been the norm.
📊 Top-10 troubles: 7-match losing streak vs. top-10 opponents since beating Badosa in 2022.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Paolini is no longer a scrappy underdog — she’s an established elite contender with the stamina, belief, and shot tolerance to outlast most challengers on clay. Her success in Rome further validated her tactical clarity and resilience on slow surfaces.

Tomljanovic has the experience and tools to frustrate opponents — clean ball-striking, sharp angles, and good court IQ — but her physical reliability is in question, especially after the Rabat retirement just days ago.

If the match extends beyond two sets, Paolini’s footwork and recent form should create a clear edge. The Italian is far more comfortable in longer rallies, and she knows how to manage the big points better now.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Paolini in 3 sets – Experience + elite form should prove too strong over time.

🎾 Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Maya Joint – French Open R1

WTA French Open

🎾 Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Maya Joint – French Open R1 Preview

🧠 Form & Context

Ajla Tomljanovic
⚠️ Injury question mark: Retired in Rabat just a few days ago due to abdominal strain — the same event where she faced Joint.
📉 RG struggles: Hasn’t made it past R2 at Roland-Garros since 2014 and has lost R1 five of the last seven years.
↕️ Mixed clay swing: Showed glimpses of form with a Charleston R3 and Rabat SF, but most of the season has been marred by inconsistency (7 first-round exits in 11 events).
Maya Joint
🌟 Breakout star: The 18-year-old Aussie is flying after capturing her maiden WTA title in Rabat, beating four opponents in straight sets.
📈 Meteoric rise: Joint has already reached a WTA semifinal (Hobart) and QF (Mérida) this season — now eyeing a top-50 breakthrough.
💪 Momentum edge: Comes in with five consecutive wins on clay — all in straight sets — and the confidence of having just beaten Tomljanovic (via retirement).

🔍 Match Breakdown

🏥 Tomljanovic’s status: If her abdominal injury is still lingering, that could significantly limit her serving ability and endurance.
🚀 Joint’s rise: She’s not just winning — she’s dominating. Four straight-set wins in Rabat, and her serve and composure under pressure have been beyond her age.
🎯 Surface impact: Joint has quickly proven herself on clay, while Tomljanovic has rarely found joy at Roland-Garros in over a decade.

🔮 Prediction

Tomljanovic would need both full fitness and peak form to derail Maya Joint’s momentum — and she currently has neither. The 18-year-old is full of confidence and will likely have the edge in both energy and execution. 🧩 Prediction: Joint in straight sets

🎾 WTA Rabat SF: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Maya Joint

🎾 WTA Rabat SF: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Maya Joint – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇦🇺 Ajla Tomljanovic
📈 Clay revival: 7–4 record on clay in 2025, marking her most consistent surface this season.
🏟️ Rabat specialist: Finalist in 2018, semifinalist in 2019—now back in the final four for the third time.
💪 Battle-tested: Came from a set down vs Pieri in R16, showing trademark grit.
📉 Rare clean wins: Only 27% of her clay wins have come in straight sets—often goes the distance.
🇦🇺 Maya Joint
🚀 Breakout year: 28–13 overall in 2025, including 8–3 on clay.
🔥 Flawless in Rabat: Four straight-set wins this week, including over Li, Volynets, and Konjuh.
🏆 First WTA SF: Has already captured two ITF titles—now breaking through at main-tour level.
📊 Elite clay stats: Has won at least 1 set in 90% of clay matches and holds a 60% deciding set win rate.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Tomljanovic is a veteran with proven Rabat form and a solid tactical game built on consistency and baseline depth. She absorbs pace well but often starts slow—her comeback against Pieri proves her resilience, but also her vulnerability early. Joint, meanwhile, is sharp, fearless, and in red-hot form. Her compact game, court positioning, and smart shot selection have allowed her to breeze through the draw without dropping a set. She’s outperforming Ajla in nearly every clay metric this year—including set win rates and break point conversion. If Joint starts strong, she can dictate tempo. If Ajla drags her into deep waters, her experience might give her a shot. But the teen’s momentum looks hard to stop right now.

🔮 Prediction

Ajla brings the edge in experience and Rabat history, but Maya Joint’s current form, clean hitting, and superior clay stats tip the balance. 🧩 Prediction: Joint in 3 sets — Expect a gritty, physical semifinal, but the rising Aussie has the tools and belief to reach her first WTA final.

WTA Rabat – Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic

WTA Rabat – Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic

🧠 Form & Context

🇪🇸 Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
🌱 Breakout season: The 22-year-old Spaniard is enjoying a breakthrough 2025, especially on clay (8–4).
🔥 Momentum player: Back-to-back QFs in Rouen and Rabat with recent wins over Nahimana, Grabher, and Svitolina.
📈 Building consistency: First time reaching consecutive tour-level QFs—showing improved maturity and match management.
⛔ Limited top-tier exposure: First meeting against a player with multiple WTA SF+ runs this season.

🇦🇺 Ajla Tomljanovic
🎢 Comeback rhythm: Returning strong from injury, now 6–4 on clay in 2025.
✅ Clutch in Rabat: Beat Pieri and Tomova in straight sets, showcasing rally tolerance and tactical experience.
🇲🇦 Rabat veteran: QF or better in 2018, 2019, and 2022—familiar with conditions and match pacing here.
💪 Recent resurgence: Wins over Pegula and Stearns in Charleston confirmed her threat level is still high.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This matchup is a contrast of styles and experience. Bouzas Maneiro thrives on rhythm-heavy rallies and is excellent in neutral exchanges, but can struggle to inject pace or finish short balls. Tomljanovic brings depth, defensive poise, and decades of high-stakes tennis under her belt. Statistically, Tomljanovic has the stronger opening-set presence and late-set control. However, Bouzas owns a 75% win rate in deciding sets, making her a serious threat if she can extend the match. Tomljanovic’s backhand will be key in breaking Bouzas' patterns, while Bouzas will try to stretch points and test Ajla’s fitness across long exchanges.

🔮 Prediction

Bouzas Maneiro is a rising force, but Ajla’s Rabat familiarity and big-match experience may prove decisive. Expect momentum shifts and long games. 🧩 Prediction: Tomljanovic in 3 sets — Her composure in pressure moments and tactical experience should edge her past the rising Spaniard.

WTA Rabat – Tatiana Pieri vs Ajla Tomljanovic

WTA Rabat – Tatiana Pieri vs Ajla Tomljanovic

🧠 Form & Context

🇮🇹 Tatiana Pieri
🌋 Surging on clay: 17–10 clay record in 2025; 22–13 overall this season.
🔥 Recent run: Won 7 of her last 8 matches, including a solid R1 win over Martinez Cirez in straight sets.
📈 ITF success: Dominant at 60K and 100K level, especially in Santa Margherita.
🎯 First-time territory: First career WTA Round of 16, facing a seasoned but still-recovering opponent.

🇦🇺 Ajla Tomljanovic
🧩 Wildcard rebound: Still working her way back from injury layoffs that sidelined much of 2023.
⚠️ Clay inconsistency: A 5–4 clay record in 2025, with up-and-down performances in Madrid, Rome, and Charleston.
🏆 Rabat pedigree: Finalist in 2018, SF in 2019, and QF in 2022—knows how to play here.
✅ R1 win: Beat Tomova in 3 sets but looked physically taxed during longer exchanges.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Pieri has the clay momentum and thrives in rhythm-heavy baseline rallies. Her strong form and a 74% win rate when claiming the first set suggest she’s dangerous if she starts fast.

Tomljanovic has more firepower and tour-level experience, but her fitness and match stamina remain question marks. She's won just 46% of her clay matches over the past 12 months, and Rabat’s slow bounce tends to favor patient counter-punchers like Pieri.

This match hinges on tempo. If Pieri extends rallies and draws errors, she could pull off the upset. If Tomljanovic lands early punches and avoids long points, she’ll take control.

🔮 Prediction

Tomljanovic’s ceiling is higher, but Pieri enters with better rhythm and a match-hardened mindset. Expect a scrappy, physical encounter that could go either way. 🧩 Prediction: Tomljanovic in 3 sets — Pieri keeps it close, but Ajla’s experience may edge her through the key moments.

WTA Rabat – Ajla Tomljanovic vs Viktoriya Tomova

WTA Rabat – Ajla Tomljanovic vs Viktoriya Tomova

🧠 Form & Context

Ajla Tomljanovic
📈 Continuing her comeback season with a 9–10 record in 2025, including a 4–4 mark on clay. Has picked up quality wins over Teichmann, Martinez Cirez, and Sorribes Tormo.
🏟️ A proven performer in Rabat—finalist in 2018, semifinalist in 2019, and quarterfinalist in 2022. She clearly enjoys the conditions here.
🧱 Though she hasn’t gone deep at a major clay event this season, her match toughness and experience give her an edge in close matches.

Viktoriya Tomova
📉 A tough 2025 so far with just 5 wins from 16 matches, and winless on clay (0–3), including a tight first-round exit in Rome to Arango.
⚖️ Still a capable battler—her 15–11 clay record from last year includes a semifinal in Rabat, proving she knows how to compete here.
🔄 Searching for rhythm after early exits in Miami, Madrid, and Rome. Her game is consistent but lacks the offensive pop to disrupt more aggressive players.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This matchup is likely to be a baseline battle full of long rallies and tactical play. Both players excel at defense and placement over sheer power, but Tomljanovic brings more to the table with her stronger serve and heavier groundstrokes.

Tomova has the movement and patience to make this competitive, but her recent form is troubling—especially given her struggles to generate offense against stronger opponents.

Tomljanovic’s comfort in Rabat and her better clay-court body of work this spring make her the more reliable pick. She’s likely to control just enough points to edge out a close contest.

🔮 Prediction

Expect a grind, but Tomljanovic’s past success here and superior firepower give her the edge.
🧩 Prediction: Ajla Tomljanovic in 2 tight sets — with at least one set likely going the distance.

🎾 WTA Rome: Varvara Gracheva vs Ajla Tomljanović

🎾 WTA Rome: Varvara Gracheva vs Ajla Tomljanović – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇦🇺 Ajla Tomljanović

• Qualified with grit: Earned her sixth main-draw appearance in Rome by winning both qualifying matches—building rhythm and match confidence.
• Patchy 2025: After a strong end to 2024 (title in Hong Kong, final in Birmingham), she's dropped out of the top 70 due to four R1 exits in her last five tournaments.
• Clay challenges: Rome has never been a successful venue—never past R2—and her powerful baseline game struggles with consistency on slower surfaces.
• Still dangerous: Recent close matches and qualifying momentum suggest she remains a threat when timing and rhythm align.

🇫🇷 Varvara Gracheva

• Confidence crisis: Hasn't won back-to-back matches since October 2024, and is winless in main-draw matches across multiple surfaces in 2025.
• Rome history: Won her first match here last year before falling to Sakkari—so the venue is not unfamiliar.
• Clay capability: Reached R4 at Roland-Garros in 2024, proving that her clean, flat hitting can be effective on clay with proper execution.
• 2025 warning signs: Early exits in Charleston, Rouen, and Madrid highlight a dip in belief and baseline authority.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a matchup defined by fluctuating confidence levels rather than standout form.

Tomljanović’s route through qualifying gives her the fresher feel and match sharpness. If she can keep her unforced error count low and avoid being rushed by Gracheva’s flatter pace, her athleticism and court coverage could shine through. However, she’ll need to avoid extended lapses—especially on a surface that demands point construction and patience.

Gracheva leads the head-to-head 4–0, with two recent matches going the distance. Her ability to redirect pace and stay low through the ball has historically given Tomljanović problems—especially on slower courts. But with confidence fragile and results lacking, Gracheva may not be able to execute her usual baseline precision under pressure.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Tomljanović in 3 sets. Qualifying rhythm, combined with Gracheva’s downward trend, could tip the scales for Ajla in a close, clay-grind battle.

WTA Charleston: Pegula vs Tomljanovic

🎾 WTA Charleston: Pegula vs Tomljanovic – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇺🇸 Jessica Pegula

• 🎯 Charleston specialist: Back-to-back semifinalist here (2023, 2024), and yet to drop a set this week.
• 🔥 On fire in 2025: 21 wins already this season—more than she had by August last year.
• 📈 Confident and in control: Finals at the US Open, Miami, Toronto, and Austin since late 2024.
• 🏆 Elite-level steadiness: Exceptional rally tolerance, return game, and footwork make her a nightmare on green clay.

🇦🇺 Ajla Tomljanovic

• 🔓 Turning a corner: Broke a long drought vs top-50 players with a commanding win over Stearns.
• 🌱 Charleston regular: Reaches the third round here for the fourth time but has never made it further.
• ⚠️ Underdog resurgence: Playing her best tennis since 2022, mixing grit with intelligent defense.
• 📊 Recent head-to-head: Lost to Pegula twice this year, but both matches were competitive and went the distance.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Pegula enters as the clear favorite thanks to her momentum, consistency, and history on Charleston’s green clay. She’ll aim to dictate with margin and precision, working Tomljanovic’s backhand and pushing her side to side.

Tomljanovic, however, is riding a quiet wave of confidence. If she serves well and plays assertive, first-strike tennis, she could trouble Pegula—just as she did in their previous two meetings this year.

The key difference may be Pegula’s superior rally tolerance and ability to raise her level in high-pressure moments. Tomljanovic will need to be nearly flawless to pull off the upset.

🔮 Prediction

Pick: Jessica Pegula in straight sets

Pegula’s top-tier consistency, court coverage, and recent head-to-head dominance should help her weather Tomljanovic’s resistance and book a return to the Charleston quarterfinals.

🎾 Charleston WTA: Tomljanovic vs Okamura – Match Preview

🎾 Charleston WTA: Tomljanovic vs Okamura – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🟨 Ajla Tomljanovic

• 📍 Charleston consistency: Has never lost in the first round here in five appearances since 2014.
• 🎯 Third-round ceiling: Best result is three R3 finishes, most recently in 2021.
• 📉 Ranking slide: Barely inside the top 100 and inconsistent over the past 18 events.
• 🌟 2024 highlights: Won 125k Hong Kong and made Austin SF last month—her only recent multi-win events.

🟥 Kyoka Okamura

• 🎟️ Lucky loser lifeline: Lost to Sebov in Charleston qualifying but enters the main draw nonetheless.
• 🎾 Limited WTA experience: Just her fourth main draw appearance; only one career WTA win so far.
• 🏆 ITF form: Recent success has lifted her to a career-best ranking of No. 178 in March.
• 🌸 Biggest win: Beat world No. 80 Hailey Baptiste in Tokyo last October for her first tour-level win.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Tomljanovic is clearly the more seasoned player and returns to a venue where she’s never lost her opener. While her form hasn’t been overwhelming, she has the power, experience, and consistency to outplay Okamura from the baseline.

Okamura has struggled mightily against top-100 opposition, losing 10 of 11 such encounters. Unless the Aussie has a particularly off day, it’s tough to imagine this one getting complicated.

🔮 Prediction

Pick: Tomljanovic in straight sets

Tomljanovic’s solid Charleston history and Okamura’s inexperience at this level suggest a routine win for the Aussie as she looks to build momentum heading into the clay season.