Juan Manuel Cerúndolo vs Alexander Bublik

🎾 ATP Gstaad – Final Preview

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo vs Alexander Bublik

🔥 Cerúndolo is having a breakout week in the Swiss Alps. Riding a 4-match win streak, he stunned top seed Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals and reached his first ATP final since winning Córdoba in 2021. His loopy, lefty topspin has thrived in Gstaad’s altitude, and his 37–16 clay record this season reflects serious consistency. Wins over Struff, Goffin, and Buse show he’s earned this final the hard way.

🎯 Bublik has quietly built one of the most well-rounded seasons of his career, with titles on grass (Halle) and clay (Turin) and a French Open QF. This week, he hasn’t dropped a set or faced a break point—cruising past Cazaux, Comesaña, and Shevchenko. His high-velocity serve, paired with unpredictable shotmaking, becomes even more dangerous in altitude conditions.

💥 A classic contrast: Cerúndolo’s spin, patience, and rhythm vs. Bublik’s explosiveness and variety. If Cerúndolo can frustrate Bublik and elongate rallies, he’ll have a chance. But if Bublik stays composed and serves big, the altitude may tip this in his favor.

👉 Read the Full Match Breakdown on Patreon

Ugo Carabelli vs Jesper de Jong

🎾 ATP Bastad – Semifinal Preview

Ugo Carabelli vs Jesper de Jong

🔥 Ugo Carabelli is putting together an impressive clay campaign, now 26–13 on the surface with deep runs in Santiago, Rio, and Bastad. This week, he’s taken out Garin, Van de Zandschulp, and Misolic. Though he's gone three sets in his last two matches, he’s proven physically resilient and tactically disciplined. He meets a familiar opponent in De Jong, with their H2H locked at 3–3.

🚀 De Jong is on a career-best run, having reached his first ATP semifinal of the season. His victory over Griekspoor in the QF showed nerves of steel and a readiness to rise on the big stage. With a 17–13 clay record and 46 total matches this year, he's balanced Challenger-level consistency with top-tier breakthroughs. Their rivalry has no clear favorite—each has taken big wins in the past.

💥 This semifinal has grinder energy written all over it. Both are match-tough, well-versed on red clay, and eager to crack into a rare ATP final. Expect long rallies, momentum shifts, and a battle of endurance and focus.

👉 Read the Full Match Breakdown on Patreon

Cerúndolo vs Buse

🇨🇭 ATP Gstaad – Semifinal

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo vs Ignacio Buse

🧠 Form & Context

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo
The Argentine lefty has found form deep into the 2025 clay swing. He’s fresh off impressive wins over Goffin and Ruud in Gstaad and is into his best run of the year. Cerúndolo has racked up 36 clay-court wins this season (36–20 overall), though every match this week has gone the distance.

He’s shown flashes of his 2021 breakthrough game—using lefty angles, drop shots, and clever point construction to frustrate opponents. That said, wear and tear is building, with more than 50 matches under his belt this year and a grueling summer behind him.

Ignacio Buse
Buse is in uncharted territory—this is only his second career ATP main-draw appearance, and he’s made the most of it. The 21-year-old from Peru has fought through three tough rounds, taking out Djere, Majchrzak, and Burruchaga, all in extended battles.

He brings solid clay pedigree with a 24–12 clay record this year and plenty of Challenger-level scalps. His confidence is surging after winning 11 of his last 14 matches, and physically he looks fresh and hungry.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Expect long rallies and tactical shifts in this battle of baseline grinders. Cerúndolo has the edge in finesse and experience, particularly with his lefty forehand and short-angle backhand—tools that can disrupt Buse’s rhythm and court positioning.

However, Buse has shown a serious ability to absorb pressure, recover in matches, and find ways to win. He’ll likely have the physical edge if this turns into another three-set war, and Cerúndolo’s recent match load could be a factor in tight moments.

This matchup could come down to who manages their legs and nerves better late in the second set. If Buse can force extended exchanges and stretch the match, the upset door will swing open.

🔮 Prediction

Cerúndolo’s higher ceiling, clay-court IQ, and lefty variations give him the upper hand. But Buse is playing fearlessly and has nothing to lose. With both trending toward grinding rallies and three-setters, this may again go the distance.

🧩 Projected score: Cerúndolo wins 6–4, 3–6, 6–3
Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Ruud vs Cerundolo

🇨🇭 Gstaad ATP – Quarterfinal

Casper Ruud vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

🧠 Form & Context

Casper Ruud
Despite a few bumps in recent weeks, Ruud remains a heavyweight on clay. He holds a 14–4 record on the surface this season, headlined by a title in Madrid and strong showings in Barcelona and Rome. Gstaad has been especially kind to him—he lifted the trophy here back-to-back in 2021 and 2022 and looks right at home on the altitude clay.

After a disappointing early loss at Roland Garros (2R vs Borges) and a rough 0–6, 1–6 loss to Sinner in Rome, Ruud has shown signs of rebounding. His win over Dominic Stricker in the previous round was composed and clinical—saving key break points and managing the match on his terms.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
The Argentine has been grinding away on clay all year, stacking up a 35–16 record, mostly at the Challenger level. He’s caught fire this week in Gstaad, taking out Struff and Goffin in impressive fashion—showing off his signature clay-court craft.

That said, Cerundolo’s success at ATP level has been scattered. He owns one title but has rarely made a consistent impact at the top tier. He’s also in the middle of a brutally packed schedule, with over 20 matches played in the past five weeks—a workload that may catch up with him here.

This will be the first actual meeting between the two. They were slated to play in Acapulco earlier this year, but Ruud advanced via walkover.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a stylistic battle rooted in clay—but the class gap may be too much to overcome. Ruud’s serve-plus-forehand combination thrives at altitude, and he’s proven time and again that he knows how to win here. His backhand, while occasionally passive, holds up well against lefty angles like Cerundolo’s.

Cerundolo’s success depends on rhythm and resistance. His defensive depth and ability to throw off timing can frustrate lower-tier players, but against top-10 power and precision, he tends to get overpowered—especially on return games and second-serve exchanges.

The Argentine’s best path is to drag Ruud into long rallies, poke at his backhand depth, and keep scoreboard pressure high. He’s crafty enough to make it competitive, especially with the altitude giving his lefty forehand more lift and his serve a bit more bite.

🔮 Prediction

Ruud is simply too dialed-in in Gstaad. His comfort with the conditions, superior serve-forehand patterns, and ability to shorten points should carry him through. Still, Cerundolo’s clay IQ might make him work harder than expected.

Projected score: Ruud 6–4, 6–3
Confidence: ★★★☆☆ (moderate)
Value lean: Over 20.5 games — Cerundolo has a habit of extending top-tier players, especially on his favorite surface.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. David Goffin

ATP Gstaad – Round of 16
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. David Goffin

🧠 Form & Context

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

• 🌱 Clay-court lifer: With a 34–16 record on clay this season and over 270 career wins on the surface, Cerundolo is firmly in his comfort zone. He thrives on the Challenger and ATP 250 clay circuit.
• 🔥 July hot streak: Finalist last week in Braunschweig and followed that up with a gutsy three-set win over Struff in R1 here in Gstaad. His game looks tuned and tested.
• 💪 Staying power: Despite logging 50+ matches in 2025, Cerundolo remains physically solid—especially impressive given Gstaad’s altitude and heavy baseline conditions.
• 🧠 Crafty lefty: Uses spin, angles, and tempo shifts expertly—particularly effective against opponents who are aging or rusty after injury spells.

David Goffin

• 🎢 Veteran on a slide: Once a Top 10 mainstay, Goffin now sits at No. 68 and is trying to regain form after a patchy season (9–15 record in 2025).
• 🧱 Familiar altitude: Reached the final in Gstaad back in 2015 and the quarters in 2017. The thinner air suits his clean timing and short takebacks.
• 🩹 Injury red flags: Has struggled with durability over the past year and a half, with multiple retirements and clear signs of wear late in matches.
• ✅ R1 win: Beat Landaluce in straight sets, but hasn’t won back-to-back matches since March in Miami.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a true clay-court chess match—and it’ll likely come down to how long Goffin can keep points short before the legs start to betray him. Cerundolo’s lefty spin and rally grind are uniquely tailored to make life miserable for someone lacking match fitness or rhythm.

The Argentine will aim to drag Goffin into extended crosscourt exchanges, especially targeting the Belgian’s one-handed backhand with height and depth. Goffin, meanwhile, must serve well, pounce on Cerundolo’s weak second delivery, and dictate early in rallies if he hopes to avoid physical burnout.

The altitude in Gstaad adds bounce to Cerundolo’s already loopy topspin, which could push Goffin further behind the baseline. That’s not where he wants to be in this matchup.

🔮 Prediction

Goffin still has flashes of brilliance and the tactical brain to hang early—but Cerundolo’s form, confidence, and clay comfort give him the edge over a full-distance match. Expect a competitive start, but the Argentine should eventually wear Goffin down.

Prediction: Cerundolo in three sets, with a strong finish after a possible first-set stumble.

ATP French Open R2: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Hamad Medjedovic

ATP French Open R2: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Hamad Medjedovic

🧠 Form & Context

🇷🇸 Hamad Medjedovic

• 💪 Breakthrough Win: Picked up his first-ever Grand Slam main draw victory with a straight-sets win over Majchrzak.
• 🎯 Smart Scheduling: Skipped Australian Open qualifying to focus on Challenger-level gains, breaking into the top 100 earlier this year.
• ⚠️ Fitness Red Flag: Still recovering from injury post-Marseille final—hasn't managed back-to-back match wins since February.
• 🔥 Shotmaker with Firepower: Can dominate from the baseline when in rhythm, but his aggressive style can lead to streaky results.

🇦🇷 Juan Manuel Cerundolo

• 🧱 Clay Court Grind: All 27 of his wins in 2025 have come on clay, including qualifying rounds—fully specialized on the surface.
• 🔄 Finally Main Draw: After four failed attempts, broke into the RG main draw and took down Michelsen in convincing fashion.
• 📉 Tour-Level Trouble: Despite winning Córdoba in 2021, has largely struggled to establish himself consistently on the ATP Tour.
• ⏳ Endurance Machine: Excels in long, attritional battles on clay—uses his movement and consistency to wear opponents down.

🔍 Match Breakdown: For our valued Patrons. Join us to unlock the breakdown and prediction. Help us keep this beautiful project alive—most of our work stays free thanks to your support!

👉 Read on Patreon

🎾 Alex Michelsen vs. Juan Manuel Cerúndolo

ATP French Open

🎾 Alex Michelsen vs. Juan Manuel Cerúndolo – Round 1 Preview

🧠 Form & Context

Alex Michelsen
🌍 Clay learning curve: Claimed the Challenger title in Estoril without dropping a set but hasn’t won a main-draw match on European clay this year.
📉 Main tour struggles: Followed up Estoril with two heavy losses, including a 0–6, 3–6 defeat to Laslo Djere in Rome.
🚫 French Open debut woes: Last year, he was handed a brutal draw and was thrashed by De Minaur (1–6, 0–6, 2–6) in R1.
📈 On the rise: Ranked No. 33 and knocking on the door of the top 30, Michelsen has made major strides overall, though clay remains his weakest surface.
Juan Manuel Cerúndolo
🎾 Natural on clay: The 2021 Córdoba champion, known for his crafty lefty game and patience on clay, finally makes his main draw debut at Roland Garros.
🧗 Climbed through qualifying: Beat Onclin, Habib, and Galán to reach the main draw after four straight failed qualifying bids (2021–2024).
🌍 Slower Grand Slam path: Despite being a clay specialist, he played main draws at Wimbledon and US Open before ever cracking the RG main draw.
🧱 Grinder by nature: Lacks explosive weapons but has over 250 career clay wins, with the stamina and strategy to frustrate inexperienced opponents on dirt.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a stylistic clash between raw power and tactical endurance. Michelsen’s serve and flat groundstrokes can do damage, but on slow clay, he’ll have to work much harder to earn points. His lack of comfort in constructing longer rallies puts him at a disadvantage, especially against a player like Cerúndolo, who thrives on dragging opponents into the trenches. Cerúndolo has the court sense, patience, and clay-specific toolkit to exploit Michelsen’s inexperience on the surface. If he targets the American’s movement and keeps depth on his lefty forehand, he could wear Michelsen down across five sets. Still, Michelsen may view Cerúndolo as beatable due to his lack of tour-level pedigree and physical fragility in longer matches.

🔮 Prediction

Michelsen is the higher-ranked player with a better all-around game, but on clay, Juan Manuel Cerúndolo’s edge in comfort, stamina, and strategic depth is hard to overlook—especially in best-of-five. 🧩 Prediction: Cerúndolo in 4 sets. He has the tools to frustrate the American and control the rhythm of the match.

🎾 ATP Madrid: Daniil Medvedev vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

🎾 ATP Madrid: Daniil Medvedev vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇷🇺 Daniil Medvedev

• Season Struggles: A turbulent 2025 marked by early losses, rising frustration, and no clear momentum shift.
• Clay Discomfort: Looked visibly uncomfortable in Monte Carlo, losing to Khachanov and struggling even against non-clay specialists like Muller.
• Madrid Free Pass: Advanced to R3 without playing after Laslo Djere withdrew.
• Ranking Pressure: Needs a solid run to maintain his top-10 status with clay-court points at risk.
• Recent Clay Memories: Last notable clay match ended in a shock R1 French Open loss to Seyboth Wild (2023).

🇦🇷 Juan Manuel Cerundolo

• Clay-Court Roots: Natural grinder who thrives on slow surfaces and prolonged rallies.
• Breakthrough Moment: Defeated Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight sets for his first career top-20 win in R2.
• Climbing Back: A win here would nearly push him back into the ATP Top 100 after struggling with form and injuries in 2023.
• Madrid Milestone: Reaching a Masters R16 would mark the biggest result of his young career so far.

🔍 Match Breakdown & Prediction

🔒 Full detailed breakdown and prediction exclusively for Patreon Members!

👉 Click here to unlock the complete match analysis!

---

🎾 ATP Madrid: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

🎾 ATP Madrid: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

🧠 Form & Context

Felix Auger-Aliassime
🇨🇦 The Canadian started 2025 strong with titles in Adelaide and Montpellier but has since lost 5 of his last 6 matches. Entering Madrid on a three-match losing skid, FAA is searching for the form that saw him reach the final here last year—albeit with some luck via retirements and walkovers. Still, his game suits Madrid's conditions well, where the altitude and faster clay help accentuate his aggressive, first-strike tennis.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
🇦🇷 The Argentine clay specialist is enjoying a rare surge, having won three straight matches in Madrid—including two in qualifying and a main draw victory over Kovacevic. Cerundolo thrives in long rallies and uses his topspin-heavy forehand and excellent movement to wear opponents down. While Madrid is quicker than his preferred slow clay, he’s adapted well so far and will look to extend points and test FAA’s recent fragility.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Auger-Aliassime will try to dictate with his serve and forehand, keeping points short and preventing Cerundolo from settling into rhythm. This worked well in his 2024 Madrid run, where the altitude played to his strengths. However, his recent struggles with consistency and confidence make him vulnerable, especially if his first serve percentage dips.

Cerundolo, by contrast, will be content to grind. He’ll look to disrupt FAA’s timing with loopy, high-margin groundstrokes and strategic changes of pace. The key for him will be handling FAA’s initial aggression and dragging the Canadian into longer rallies where his mental edge can waver.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 3 sets
Cerundolo is a live underdog with the clay-court skills to cause trouble, but FAA’s upside—especially in Madrid’s faster conditions—gives him a narrow edge. Expect some turbulence, but the Canadian should power through if he manages his errors and stays focused under pressure.

🎾 ATP Marrakech: Cerúndolo vs Gaston – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🟨 Juan Manuel Cerúndolo

• 🎾 Natural clay talent: Lifetime clay record of 253–141 and a 14–7 run in 2025 highlight his comfort on the surface.
• 🔥 Red-hot form: Five wins in his last six matches, including a dominant run in Marrakech qualifying and main draw.
• 🔄 Momentum builder: Clean straight-set wins over Bennani and Droguet—controlling rallies with consistency and topspin.

🟥 Hugo Gaston

• 🌀 Flair and variety: One of the most unorthodox players on tour, with a unique mix of drop shots, spins, and angles.
• 🚫 Struggling on clay: 0–3 on clay in 2025, with most success this year coming on faster surfaces.
• 📉 Inconsistent results: Losses in Phoenix and Indian Wells, and a weak showing in Marrakech in 2024.
• ❗ Past H2H win: Beat Cerúndolo on clay in Gstaad (2021), but that feels like a different version of both players now.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a lefty-vs-lefty matchup filled with contrast—Cerúndolo plays a traditional clay-court style built on depth, topspin, and physicality. Gaston brings trickery, touch, and variation but lacks rhythm on clay this season.

If Cerúndolo keeps the ball heavy and deep, it will minimize Gaston's ability to implement his short-court game. The Argentine's current fitness, precision, and confidence tilt this battle firmly in his favor.

While Gaston can always disrupt rhythm, especially with a hot streak of drops and slices, his current level suggests he may not be able to sustain that for a full match against a consistent baseliner like Cerúndolo.

🔮 Prediction

Pick: Cerúndolo in straight sets

Momentum, surface mastery, and form all point to a routine win for the Argentine—unless Gaston can flip the script with something magical.