First-round previews from the Brisbane 3 Challenger (hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Casey Hoole vs Sam Ryan Ziegann
🧠 Form & Context
Casey Hoole
- 🔥 Ranked No. 637 at 23, 8–2 in his last 10 and winning 87% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 69.9% on the first serve and 53.4% on the second, with 69.5% of first serves in.
- 🔒 Saves 61.0% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 80% of deciding sets this season and 65% over his career.
- ⚠️ His sample at this level is very small, so these numbers carry less weight.
Sam Ryan Ziegann
- 📉 Ranked No. 802 at 28, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 53% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Wins 67.3% behind his first serve.
- 🎯 Converts 43.4% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 52% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Weak behind his second serve (47.5%) and on return against it (47.6%). Has won 47% of best-of-three matches.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Hoole is the 1.25 favourite.
Hoole is the stronger server: more first serves in (69.5% vs 60.2%), more points won behind the first (69.9% vs 67.3%) and the second (53.4% vs 47.5%), and more break points saved (61.0% vs 56.4%).
On return they are close against the first serve (32.4% vs 31.8%), but Hoole is far better against the second (54.3% vs 47.6%).
The form is clearly with Hoole: 8–2 in his last 10 against 5–5, and 87% of recent matches won against 53%. His numbers come from a very small sample, though.
Hoole leads on almost every line, which explains the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Hoole | Ziegann |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 637 | 802 |
| Age | 23 | 28 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 69.5% | 60.2% |
| 1st-serve points won | 69.9% | 67.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 53.4% | 47.5% |
| Break points saved | 61.0% | 56.4% |
| Break points converted | 44.1% | 43.4% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 37% |
| Tiebreak win % | 54% | 49% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 65% | 47% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 63% | 47% |
Dane Sweeny vs Anton Shepp
🧠 Form & Context
Dane Sweeny
- 📊 Ranked No. 114 at 25, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 46% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 34.0% against the first serve and 52.4% against the second, and 41% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 42.6% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 62% of career deciding sets.
- ⚠️ Weaker on serve: 66.1% behind the first serve and 58.3% of break points saved. Has won 50% of career tiebreaks.
Anton Shepp
- 📈 Ranked No. 488 at 24, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 52% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 71.2% on the first serve, with 66.2% of first serves in.
- 🔒 Saves 61.4% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 63% of career tiebreaks, 65% of best-of-three matches and 93% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ The weaker returner (32.9% against the first serve), and his sample at this level is small.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Sweeny is the 1.44 favourite and is ranked more than 370 places higher.
Shepp is the stronger server: 71.2% behind the first serve to 66.1%, more first serves in (66.2% vs 62.9%) and more break points saved (61.4% vs 58.3%). They are level behind the second serve (51.6% vs 51.0%).
Sweeny is the better returner: 34.0% against the first serve to 32.9%, and 52.4% against the second to 51.5%. He also converts more break points (42.6% vs 40.5%).
Shepp is 6–4 in his last 10 against 5–5 and has won more of his recent matches (52% vs 46%). He also has the far better tiebreak record (63% vs 50%), while Sweeny has the better career deciding-set record (62% vs 46%).
Sweeny's ranking and return explain the price, but Shepp's serve and tiebreak record could make this close.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Sweeny | Shepp |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 114 | 488 |
| Age | 25 | 24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 62.9% | 66.2% |
| 1st-serve points won | 66.1% | 71.2% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.0% | 51.6% |
| Break points saved | 58.3% | 61.4% |
| Break points converted | 42.6% | 40.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 50% | 63% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 62% | 46% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 59% | 65% |
Carl Emil Overbeck vs Florian Broska
🧠 Form & Context
Carl Emil Overbeck
- 📈 Ranked No. 301 at 25, 5–5 in his last 10 but winning 72% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Strong first serve: 71.2% of points won, with 64.3% of first serves in.
- 🎯 Converts 43.6% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 76% of deciding sets this season, 71% over his career and 57% of tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Weaker behind his second serve (49.6%) and saves 56.7% of break points. His sample at this level is small.
Florian Broska
- 📊 Ranked No. 320 at 28, 4–6 in his last 10 but winning 61% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Stronger behind the second serve: 53.0% of points won.
- 🔒 Saves 58.8% of break points (61% recently).
- 🎯 Has converted 48% of break points in recent matches.
- ⚠️ Lands only 60.7% of first serves.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Overbeck is the 1.57 favourite, and the two are ranked 19 places apart.
On serve they are close. Overbeck wins more behind the first serve (71.2% vs 69.9%) and lands more first serves (64.3% vs 60.7%), while Broska is stronger behind the second (53.0% vs 49.6%) and saves more break points (58.8% vs 56.7%).
On return they are almost identical: 33.6% against the first serve each, and 52.9% vs 53.0% against the second. Overbeck converts slightly more break points (43.6% vs 41.8%).
Overbeck is 5–5 in his last 10 against 4–6, and has won more of his recent matches (72% vs 61%). He also has the far better deciding-set record (76% vs 65% this season, 71% vs 53% career).
Overbeck's record in tight finishes explains the price, in a match where holds should dominate.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Overbeck | Broska |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 301 | 320 |
| Age | 25 | 28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 64.3% | 60.7% |
| 1st-serve points won | 71.2% | 69.9% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.6% | 53.0% |
| Break points saved | 56.7% | 58.8% |
| Break points converted | 43.6% | 41.8% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 57% | 55% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 71% | 53% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 67% | 62% |
Sebastian Gorzny vs Charles Broom
🧠 Form & Context
Sebastian Gorzny
- 📊 Ranked No. 403 at 22, with a one-handed backhand, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 53% of recent matches.
- 🔒 Saves 61.9% of break points, and 66% in recent matches.
- 🚀 Wins 68.7% behind his first serve (71% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 52% of career deciding sets.
- ⚠️ The weaker returner (31.2% against the first serve), and his sample at this level is very small.
Charles Broom
- 📈 Ranked No. 264 at 28, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 59% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Stronger behind both serves: 70.5% on the first and 50.9% on the second.
- 🔁 The better returner: 33.1% against the first serve and 53.3% against the second.
- 🏆 Has won 63% of best-of-three matches and 87% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Converts only 41.3% of break points.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting, and the market cannot split them: both are priced at 1.83.
Broom is a little stronger on serve: 70.5% behind the first serve to 68.7%, 50.9% behind the second to 50.1%, and more first serves in (62.0% vs 60.6%). Gorzny saves slightly more break points (61.9% vs 60.6%).
Broom is also the better returner: 33.1% against the first serve to 31.2%, and 53.3% against the second to 51.2%. He converts slightly more break points (41.3% vs 40.1%).
Both are 5–5 in their last 10, and Broom has won slightly more of his recent matches (59% vs 53%). Their records in tight finishes are almost identical.
Broom is slightly ahead on most lines. With so little data on Gorzny, though, this is a genuine coin flip on price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Gorzny | Broom |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 403 | 264 |
| Age | 22 | 28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 60.6% | 62.0% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.7% | 70.5% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.1% | 50.9% |
| Break points saved | 61.9% | 60.6% |
| Break points converted | 40.1% | 41.3% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 50% | 51% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 52% | 53% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 58% | 63% |
Moerani Bouzige vs Christopher O'Connell
🧠 Form & Context
Moerani Bouzige
- 📊 Ranked No. 461 at 27, 4–6 in his last 10 and winning 57% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Wins 70.7% behind his first serve (72% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 57% of career deciding sets and 55% of tiebreaks.
- 🔁 Level with O'Connell on return: 31.4% against the first serve and 50.7% against the second.
- ⚠️ Weaker behind his second serve (49.0%), and has converted 36% of break points recently.
Christopher O'Connell
- 📈 Ranked No. 117 at 32, with a one-handed backhand, 7–3 in his last 10.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 71.7% on the first serve and 51.3% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 63.4% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 59% of career tiebreaks and 62% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ Has converted only 26% of break points recently and has won 48% of career deciding sets.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. O'Connell is the heavy 1.08 favourite and is ranked more than 340 places higher.
O'Connell is the stronger server: 71.7% behind the first serve to 70.7%, 51.3% behind the second to 49.0%, and 63.4% of break points saved to 59.0%. He also lands more first serves (62.5% vs 60.1%).
On return they are almost identical: 31.4% vs 31.3% against the first serve and 50.7% vs 50.0% against the second, with O'Connell slightly ahead on break points converted (41.3% vs 40.1%).
O'Connell is 7–3 in his last 10 against 4–6. Bouzige has the better career deciding-set record (57% vs 48%), while O'Connell has the better tiebreak record (59% vs 55%).
O'Connell's serve and ranking explain the short price, in a match where holds should dominate.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Bouzige | O'Connell |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 461 | 117 |
| Age | 27 | 32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 60.1% | 62.5% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.7% | 71.7% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.0% | 51.3% |
| Break points saved | 59.0% | 63.4% |
| Break points converted | 40.1% | 41.3% |
| Return points won (career) | 38% | 38% |
| Tiebreak win % | 55% | 59% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 57% | 48% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 54% | 62% |
Matthew Dellavedova vs Thomas Fancutt
🧠 Form & Context
Matthew Dellavedova
- 🔥 Ranked No. 235 at 26, with a one-handed backhand, 9–1 in his last 10 and winning 83% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 33.7% against the first serve and 53.2% against the second, and 41% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 45.0% of break points, and 50% in recent matches.
- 🚀 Lands 70.0% of first serves. Has won 63% of career deciding sets.
- ⚠️ Wins only 64.8% behind his first serve, and has won 46% of career tiebreaks.
Thomas Fancutt
- 📉 Ranked No. 691 at 31, also with a one-handed backhand, 3–7 in his last 10 and winning 42% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Big first serve: 73.7% of points won.
- 🔒 Saves 59.6% of break points.
- 🤝 The head-to-head is level at 1–1. He won their grass-court meeting in Swan Hill in 2023.
- ⚠️ A weak returner (30.6% against the first serve, 48.3% against the second), and has won 42% of career tiebreaks.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their third meeting, level at 1–1. Dellavedova won the most recent, 7–5, 6–7, 7–6 on a hard court on the Gold Coast in 2023. He is the 1.20 favourite.
Fancutt has the bigger first serve (73.7% vs 64.8%) and saves more break points (59.6% vs 57.1%). Dellavedova lands far more first serves (70.0% vs 58.7%) and is a little stronger behind the second (50.5% vs 49.4%).
Dellavedova is clearly the better returner: 33.7% against the first serve to 30.6%, and 53.2% against the second to 48.3%. He also converts more break points (45.0% vs 41.3%).
The form gap is huge. Dellavedova is 9–1 in his last 10 against 3–7, and has won 83% of his recent matches against 42%.
Dellavedova's return and form explain the price, while Fancutt's first serve is his route into the match.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Dellavedova | Fancutt |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 235 | 691 |
| Age | 26 | 31 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 1 |
| First serves in | 70.0% | 58.7% |
| 1st-serve points won | 64.8% | 73.7% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.5% | 49.4% |
| Break points saved | 57.1% | 59.6% |
| Break points converted | 45.0% | 41.3% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 37% |
| Tiebreak win % | 46% | 42% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 63% | 57% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 58% | 54% |
Jake Delaney vs Juncheng Shang
🧠 Form & Context
Jake Delaney
- 🔥 Ranked No. 350 at 29, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 73% of recent matches. Reached the second round in Taipei last week.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 71.8% of points won (76% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 63.2% of break points, and 70% in recent matches.
- 🏆 Has won 62% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ A weak returner, especially against the second serve (48.1%). Has won 48% of career tiebreaks.
Juncheng Shang
- 📊 Ranked No. 250 at 21, a left-hander, 3–7 in his last 10 and winning 30% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Stronger behind the second serve: 52.5% of points won.
- 🔁 Better against the second serve: 51.3% of points won.
- 🏆 Has won 60% of career deciding sets and 62% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ A weak returner against the first serve (29.0%), and has won 40% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Shang is the heavy 1.16 favourite and is ranked 100 places higher.
On serve they are close. Delaney wins more behind the first serve (71.8% vs 69.6%) and saves slightly more break points (63.2% vs 62.3%), while Shang is stronger behind the second (52.5% vs 50.6%).
Neither returns well. Delaney is slightly better against the first serve (30.2% vs 29.0%), Shang against the second (51.3% vs 48.1%), and they convert break points at a similar rate (41.1% vs 40.4%).
The form is clearly with Delaney: 6–4 in his last 10 against 3–7, and 73% of recent matches won against 30%. Shang has the better career records in deciding sets (60% vs 52%) and tiebreaks (53% vs 48%).
Shang's ranking explains the short price, but on serve and recent form this looks much closer than 1.16.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Delaney | Shang |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 350 | 250 |
| Age | 29 | 21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 63.5% | 63.7% |
| 1st-serve points won | 71.8% | 69.6% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.6% | 52.5% |
| Break points saved | 63.2% | 62.3% |
| Break points converted | 40.4% | 41.1% |
| Return points won (career) | 37% | 37% |
| Tiebreak win % | 48% | 53% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 52% | 60% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 56% | 62% |
Omar Jasika vs Dhakshineswar Suresh
🧠 Form & Context
Omar Jasika
- 🔥 Ranked No. 329 at 29, a left-hander, 8–2 in his last 10 and winning 71% of recent matches. Reached the quarterfinals in Taipei last week.
- 🔁 The far better returner: 33.6% against the first serve and 53.5% against the second, and 41% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 44.7% of break points.
- 🚀 Lands 68.6% of first serves. Has won 58% of career tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Wins 66.2% behind his first serve and saves 59.9% of break points.
Dhakshineswar Suresh
- 📊 Ranked No. 448 at 26, 4–6 in his last 10 and winning 59% of recent matches.
- 🚀 A huge first serve: 75.0% of points won (78% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 65.4% of break points, and 70% in recent matches.
- 🏆 Wins 53.0% behind his second serve.
- ⚠️ A weak returner (28.2% against the first serve) and has converted only 32% of break points recently. His sample at this level is small.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Suresh is the 1.72 favourite despite being ranked almost 120 places lower.
Suresh has the much bigger serve: 75.0% behind the first serve to 66.2%, 53.0% behind the second to 51.3%, and 65.4% of break points saved to 59.9%. Jasika lands far more first serves (68.6% vs 61.1%).
Jasika is the far better returner: 33.6% against the first serve to 28.2%, and 53.5% against the second to 47.9%. He also converts far more break points (44.7% vs 40.0%).
The form is with Jasika: 8–2 in his last 10 against 4–6, and 71% of recent matches won against 59%. He also has the better career records in deciding sets (53% vs 49%) and tiebreaks (58% vs 55%).
Server against returner. Suresh's serve explains the price, while Jasika's return and form point the other way.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Jasika | Suresh |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 329 | 448 |
| Age | 29 | 26 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 68.6% | 61.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 66.2% | 75.0% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.3% | 53.0% |
| Break points saved | 59.9% | 65.4% |
| Break points converted | 44.7% | 40.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 36% |
| Tiebreak win % | 58% | 55% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 53% | 49% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 62% | 60% |
Enzo Aguiard vs Akira Santillan
🔒 Members-only read
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
Christian Langmo vs Ymerali Ibraimi
🧠 Form & Context
Christian Langmo
- 📊 Ranked No. 508 at 30, 6–4 in his last 10 but winning 47% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The much bigger first serve: 73.3% of points won.
- 🔒 Saves 63.6% of break points, and 67% in recent matches.
- 🤝 Won their only meeting, 6–0, 6–1 in Tauranga last December.
- ⚠️ A weak returner: 29.4% against the first serve and 38.7% of break points converted. Has won 35% of deciding sets this season.
Ymerali Ibraimi
- 📊 Unranked at 17, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 62% of recent matches.
- 🔁 Strong against the second serve: 55.2% of points won.
- 🎯 Converts 45.1% of break points (50% recently).
- 🚀 Wins 53.1% behind his second serve.
- ⚠️ An extremely small sample at this level, so his numbers should be read with caution.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their second meeting. Langmo won the first, 6–0, 6–1 in Tauranga last December. He is the heavy 1.11 favourite against an unranked 17-year-old.
Langmo has the much bigger first serve (73.3% vs 64.7%), lands more first serves (62.8% vs 59.2%) and saves more break points (63.6% vs 60.4%). Ibraimi is stronger behind the second serve (53.1% vs 50.1%).
They are level against the first serve (29.4% vs 29.2%), but Ibraimi is far better against the second (55.2% vs 48.7%) and converts more break points (45.1% vs 38.7%).
Both are 6–4 in their last 10, and Ibraimi has won more of his recent matches (62% vs 47%). His figures come from a very small number of matches, though.
Langmo's serve and their only meeting explain the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Langmo | Ibraimi |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 508 | – |
| Age | 30 | 17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 62.8% | 59.2% |
| 1st-serve points won | 73.3% | 64.7% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.1% | 53.1% |
| Break points saved | 63.6% | 60.4% |
| Break points converted | 38.7% | 45.1% |
| Return points won (career) | 37% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 54% | 50% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 53% | 89% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 58% |
August Holmgren vs Philip Sekulic
🧠 Form & Context
August Holmgren
- 📊 Ranked No. 267 at 28, with a one-handed backhand, 3–7 in his last 10 and winning 44% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 72.8% on the first serve and 53.4% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 63.7% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 54% of career tiebreaks and 60% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ A weak returner: 30.4% against the first serve, 47.4% against the second and 36.9% of break points converted. Has won 36% of deciding sets this season.
Philip Sekulic
- 🔥 Ranked No. 343 at 23, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 62% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 31.6% against the first serve and 52.2% against the second, and 39% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 41.6% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 61% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Weaker behind his second serve (49.9%), and has saved only 54% of break points recently.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Holmgren is the 1.50 favourite and is ranked 76 places higher.
Holmgren is the stronger server: 72.8% behind the first serve to 70.1%, 53.4% behind the second to 49.9%, and 63.7% of break points saved to 59.7%. They land first serves at the same rate (62.9% vs 63.1%).
Sekulic is the better returner: 31.6% against the first serve to 30.4%, and 52.2% against the second to 47.4%. He also converts far more break points (41.6% vs 36.9%).
The form is clearly with Sekulic: 7–3 in his last 10 against 3–7, 62% of recent matches won against 44%, and 61% of deciding sets this season against 36%.
Holmgren's serve explains the price, but Sekulic's return and form make this look much closer.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Holmgren | Sekulic |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 267 | 343 |
| Age | 28 | 23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 62.9% | 63.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 72.8% | 70.1% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 53.4% | 49.9% |
| Break points saved | 63.7% | 59.7% |
| Break points converted | 36.9% | 41.6% |
| Return points won (career) | 37% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 54% | 50% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 54% | 56% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 60% | 57% |
Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt
🧠 Form & Context
Hiroki Moriya
- 📊 Ranked No. 455 at 36, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 49% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 32.7% against the first serve and 51.5% against the second, and 40% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 42.0% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 64% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Weaker on serve: 66.3% behind the first serve and 57.1% of break points saved. Has lost the last six meetings.
Alex Bolt
- 📊 Ranked No. 174 at 33, a left-hander, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 48% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The much stronger server: 72.5% on the first serve and 52.6% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 63.7% of break points.
- 🤝 Leads the head-to-head 6–2 and has won the last six, most recently in Brisbane in February.
- ⚠️ A weak returner (29.0% against the first serve), and has won 42% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their ninth meeting. Bolt leads 6–2 and has won the last six, most recently 6–3, 3–6, 6–3 in Brisbane in February. He is the 1.33 favourite.
Bolt is the much stronger server: 72.5% behind the first serve to 66.3%, 52.6% behind the second to 49.5%, and 63.7% of break points saved to 57.1%. He also lands more first serves (62.1% vs 59.2%).
Moriya is the better returner: 32.7% against the first serve to 29.0%, and 51.5% against the second to 48.1%. He also converts more break points (42.0% vs 38.7%).
Both are 5–5 in their last 10 and have won almost the same share of recent matches (49% vs 48%). Moriya has won more deciding sets this season (64% vs 42%).
Bolt's serve and his long head-to-head lead explain the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Moriya | Bolt |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 455 | 174 |
| Age | 36 | 33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 2 | 6 |
| First serves in | 59.2% | 62.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 66.3% | 72.5% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.5% | 52.6% |
| Break points saved | 57.1% | 63.7% |
| Break points converted | 42.0% | 38.7% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 36% |
| Tiebreak win % | 52% | 55% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 55% | 57% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 53% | 58% |
Tristan Schoolkate vs Cruz Hewitt
🧠 Form & Context
Tristan Schoolkate
- 📈 Ranked No. 143 at 25, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 57% of recent matches.
- 🚀 A huge first serve: 74.4% of points won (75% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 61.2% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 57% of career deciding sets and 88% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ A weak returner, converting only 38.5% of break points (35% recently).
Cruz Hewitt
- 📊 Ranked No. 328 at 17, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 59% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Wins 69.1% behind his first serve and 50.0% behind his second.
- 🎯 Converts 40.2% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 59% of deciding sets this season and 62% over his career.
- ⚠️ Lands only 57.3% of first serves, and his sample at this level is small.
🔍 Match Breakdown
They have not finished a match before: their scheduled meeting in Guangzhou last month ended in a walkover. Schoolkate is the 1.30 favourite against the 17-year-old.
Schoolkate has the much bigger first serve (74.4% vs 69.1%) and lands more first serves (60.1% vs 57.3%). They are close behind the second serve (49.2% vs 50.0%) and on break points saved (61.2% vs 60.6%).
On return they are almost identical: 30.3% vs 30.1% against the first serve, and 49.5% vs 49.1% against the second. Hewitt converts slightly more break points (40.2% vs 38.5%).
Schoolkate is 6–4 in his last 10 against 5–5, while Hewitt has won slightly more of his recent matches (59% vs 57%) and more deciding sets this season (59% vs 48%).
Schoolkate's first serve explains the price, in a match where holds should dominate.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Schoolkate | Hewitt |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 143 | 328 |
| Age | 25 | 17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 60.1% | 57.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 74.4% | 69.1% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.2% | 50.0% |
| Break points saved | 61.2% | 60.6% |
| Break points converted | 38.5% | 40.2% |
| Return points won (career) | 38% | 37% |
| Tiebreak win % | 51% | 48% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 57% | 62% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 52% |
