More second-round previews from the Hersonissos 3 Challenger (hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
A rematch of a 2023 meeting in Monastir, which Carboni won in a final-set tiebreak. Xilas is the 1.61 favourite and is ranked 51 places higher.
Neither player serves well. They are level behind the first serve (62.4% vs 62.6%), Carboni is stronger behind the second (48.7% vs 45.2%), and Xilas saves slightly more break points (53.3% vs 51.8%).
Xilas is the better returner: 39.6% against the first serve to 37.0%, 56.1% against the second to 54.9%, and 47.7% of break points converted to 45.7%.
Xilas has the slightly better form: 7–3 in his last 10 against 6–4, and 56% of recent matches won against 50%. Carboni has the better deciding-set record (56% vs 45% over his career).
With two weak serves, expect plenty of breaks. Xilas has the edge on return, but Carboni has already beaten him once.
| Metric | Carboni | Xilas |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 550 | 499 |
| Age | 20 | 25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 62.8% | 63.6% |
| 1st-serve points won | 62.4% | 62.6% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 48.7% | 45.2% |
| Break points saved | 51.8% | 53.3% |
| Break points converted | 45.7% | 47.7% |
| Return points won (career) | 44% | 46% |
| Tiebreak win % | 49% | 56% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 56% | 45% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 58% |
A first meeting, after both won their opening matches. Henning is the 1.44 favourite and is ranked 24 places higher.
Henning is clearly the better server: 70.3% behind the first serve to 65.4%, 55.4% behind the second to 49.9%, and 62.9% of break points saved to 57.8%.
Cretu is the better returner against the first serve (37.6% vs 35.0%), while Henning is slightly better against the second (55.9% vs 54.7%). Break points converted are almost level (46.7% vs 46.1%).
Form is close: Cretu is 7–3 in his last 10 against 6–4, while Henning has won 64% of recent matches to 61%. Both have won 55% of their tiebreaks.
Henning's serve explains the price, but Cretu's return and form keep this closer than 1.44.
| Metric | Cretu | Henning |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 273 | 249 |
| Age | 25 | 26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 64.4% | 65.6% |
| 1st-serve points won | 65.4% | 70.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.9% | 55.4% |
| Break points saved | 57.8% | 62.9% |
| Break points converted | 46.7% | 46.1% |
| Return points won (career) | 44% | 43% |
| Tiebreak win % | 55% | 55% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 63% | 56% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 67% | 73% |
A rematch of their 2022 meeting on clay in Genova, which Andreev won in straight sets. The prices are almost level: Brancaccio 1.80, Andreev 1.90.
On serve there is almost nothing between them: 65.5% vs 65.7% behind the first serve and 57.2% vs 57.3% of break points saved. Andreev lands slightly more first serves (63.5% vs 61.8%) and is a touch stronger behind the second (49.7% vs 48.3%).
On return Brancaccio is better against the first serve (36.7% vs 34.1%), while they are level against the second (53.3% vs 52.9%) and on break points converted (44.4% vs 44.7%).
The form gap is large: Andreev is 7–3 in his last 10 and has won 72% of recent matches, while Brancaccio is 3–7 and has won 34%.
Brancaccio has the ranking, Andreev has the form and the head-to-head. A genuine coin flip on the numbers.
| Metric | Andreev | Brancaccio |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 584 | 222 |
| Age | 25 | 29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 63.5% | 61.8% |
| 1st-serve points won | 65.5% | 65.7% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.7% | 48.3% |
| Break points saved | 57.2% | 57.3% |
| Break points converted | 44.4% | 44.7% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 43% |
| Tiebreak win % | 64% | 53% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 52% | 45% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 56% | 56% |
