Shelton vs Buse

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Shelton vs Buse — US Open R1 Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 1

🧠 Form & Context

Ben Shelton (No. 6, age 22)

• 🇺🇸 Enters his home Slam in red‑hot form.
• 🏆 Summer swing: SF Washington, Toronto Masters champion, QF Cincinnati.
• 🎾 Grand Slam pedigree: 12 MD appearances, six second‑week runs — US Open SF 2023, AO SF 2025, Wimbledon QF 2025.
• 📊 2025: 35–18 (21–7 hard).
• 💡 Strengths: Explosive lefty serve, booming forehand, feeds off big‑court/home energy.
• ⚠️ Weaknesses: Streaky when rushed on return; occasional focus dips.

Ignacio Buse (No. 136, age 21)

• 🇵🇪 Grand Slam main‑draw debut after qualies wins over Neumayer, Sakamoto, Coppejans.
• 🔥 Breakthrough year: Maiden ATP SF (Gstaad); recent Challenger SF (Cancún).
• 📊 2025: 33–22 overall, mostly clay (25–15); 6–4 on hard.
• 💡 Strengths: Solid baseline consistency; rising confidence.
• ⚠️ Weaknesses: Limited hard‑court résumé at this level; big step up vs a top‑10 opponent.

📊 Head‑to‑Head

First meeting.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Shelton’s serve‑forehand combo plus fearless court coverage should set the terms from ball one. Buse arrives sharp from qualifying, but his top‑tier hard‑court reps are light; if rallies stay short, the American’s first‑strike pattern bites early and often.

Expect Shelton to hunt forehands behind body/kick serves, squeeze +1 forehand patterns, and avoid drawn‑out baseline trades where Buse’s steadiness plays up. Over five sets and under New York lights, Shelton’s firepower and crowd tailwind are decisive factors.

🔮 Prediction

Dream debut stage for Buse, brutal draw. A qualifier’s rhythm can nick a few pockets, but across best‑of‑five Shelton’s ceiling and serve patterns should carry him comfortably.

Pick: Shelton in 3 sets (3–0).

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Serve/1st strike: Clear edge Shelton — free points + quick holds.
• Baseline grind: Edge Buse for steadiness, but only if rallies lengthen.
• Experience: Big‑match mileage and Slam runs favor Shelton.
• Context: Home crowd + momentum tilt the margins toward the American.