Shevchenko vs Davidovich Fokina

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Shevchenko vs Davidovich Fokina — US Open R1 Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 1

🧠 Form & Context

Alexander Shevchenko (No. 89, age 24)

• 🇰🇿 Gritty competitor, but plagued by fitness issues in 2025.
• 📉 Lead-up struggles: Retired in Cincinnati qualifying and again in the Sumter Challenger final just last week.
• ⚠️ Slam struggles vs elites: 0–5 lifetime against top-20 opponents at majors, four of those without winning a set.
• 🏟️ US Open history: 1R exit in 2023, reached 2R in 2024. Still searching for consistency at Slam level.
• 💪 Positives: Can occasionally rise for upsets (beat Fucsovics, Wawrinka this summer), but long-term durability remains questionable.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (No. 18, age 26)

• 🇪🇸 Strong 2025 campaign on North American hard courts: finals in Delray Beach, Acapulco, and Washington.
• 🔥 16–9 W/L on hard this year; one of the most consistent spells of his career.
• ⚠️ Recent hiccups: Retired vs Rublev in Toronto and Fonseca in Cincinnati—fitness red flags ahead of New York.
• 🏟️ US Open pedigree: 3–2 in R1 matches, with 2 second-week runs (2020, 2022). Historically most consistent Slam for him.
• 🎾 Strengths: Counter-punching, court coverage, ability to turn defense into offense. Weakness: mental lapses and physical reliability.

📜 Head-to-Head

0–0 (first meeting)

🔍 Match Breakdown

Surface & matchup: Hard courts favor Davidovich Fokina, whose baseline dynamism and athleticism should neutralize Shevchenko’s heavy forehand.

Physical condition: Both come with recent retirements, but Shevchenko’s pattern of fitness breakdowns is more worrying. Davi’s retirements came after long battles and deep runs, while Shevchenko’s came at much lower levels.

Key dynamics:

• If Davidovich keeps intensity high and stays aggressive, Shevchenko will struggle to keep up.
• The Kazakh’s best chance lies in shortening points and forcing errors, but his history vs top-20 at Slams suggests he’s unlikely to sustain that over Bo5.
• Danger factor: Davidovich Fokina can implode from winning positions, so complacency is his biggest enemy.

🔮 Prediction

Davidovich Fokina’s quality and 2025 hard-court form are on another level compared to Shevchenko. The Spaniard’s tendency to retire mid-match is a concern, but Shevchenko’s health record is worse, and his Slam history against top players is brutal.

Pick: Davidovich Fokina in 3 sets – potential for some tight sets early, but Shevchenko’s fitness and record suggest he’ll fade quickly.