Carballés Baena vs Rinderknech

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Carballés Baena vs Rinderknech — US Open R1 Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 1

🧠 Form & Context

Roberto Carballés Baena (No. 84, age 32)

• 🇪🇸 Veteran clay-courter who has been forced to adapt more to hard courts in 2025.
• 📉 Difficult season overall (14–19 W/L), limited success even on clay, but recent signs of stability.
• 🎾 US Open series: reached R2 in Toronto (lost to Fritz) and Cincinnati (lost to Tiafoe).
• 🏟️ Flushing Meadows history: Excellent 6–1 record in opening-round matches, with notable US Open wins over Paul and Rune.
• ⚠️ Fitness has been an issue in 2025, though he’s showing more resilience this summer.

Arthur Rinderknech (No. 77, age 30)

• 🇫🇷 Big-serving Frenchman who rebounded from a poor first half of the season.
• 🔥 Sparked into form on grass (Wimbledon 3R, upset Zverev) and carried momentum onto clay (Kitzbühel SF).
• 📊 Hard-court turnaround: R16 in Cincinnati (beat Borges, Ruud) before losing to Auger-Aliassime.
• 🏟️ Consistent in New York: never lost an opening-round match in 4 appearances, best run R3 in 2023.
• 💪 Physical edge: fitter and sharper than Carballés Baena at present.

📜 Head-to-Head

Carballés Baena leads 2–0 (both 2021 on clay, straight sets).

🔍 Match Breakdown

Surface factor: Hard courts strongly favor Rinderknech, with his serve + forehand combination, while Carballés Baena’s grinding style is less efficient here.

Physical condition: Carballés Baena’s fitness is still not at peak levels, while Rinderknech appears fresh despite retiring late in Cincinnati.

US Open comfort: Both men have good R1 records in New York, so expect a competitive start, but Rinderknech’s weapons give him the higher ceiling.

Key dynamics: If Carballés extends rallies and drags the match long, his consistency could test the Frenchman’s patience. But if Rinderknech keeps service games short and aggressive, the balance tilts heavily his way.

🔮 Prediction

Arthur Rinderknech has the momentum and surface advantage. Roberto Carballés Baena’s strong opening-round history at the US Open and H2H edge suggest he won’t go down easily, but the Frenchman’s firepower should ultimately prevail.

Pick: Rinderknech in 4 sets – expect Carballés Baena to grab a set through his grinding, but Rinderknech’s serve + forehand will decide it.