Mannarino vs Griekspoor

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Mannarino vs Griekspoor — US Open 1R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court First Round

🧠 Form & Context

Adrian Mannarino (No. 73, age 37)

• 🌱 Grass revivalist: 14–6 on grass this year, including Wimbledon 3R.
• 🔥 Summer form: 7 wins across Toronto & Cincinnati (d. Paul, Thompson).
• 📉 Slam record: 17 USO appearances; best R3 (multiple). Five opening‑round exits.
• 🎾 Style: Lefty, flat redirects; thrives frustrating first‑strikers.
• ⚠️ Durability: Five‑set stamina dipped with age; struggles in long baseline wars.

Tallon Griekspoor (No. 31, age 29)

• 🏆 Mallorca champion (June); momentum stalled since (1–5, four straight losses pre‑USO).
• 📉 Slams: R1 exits at AO & Wimbledon 2025; best R16 (Roland Garros 2025).
• 🇺🇸 US Open: 2 wins in 4 MD appearances; never past R3.
• 💡 Style: Big serve + heavy FH; prefers short, first‑strike points.
• ⚠️ Confidence dip: Trouble closing tight sets in current slump.

Head‑to‑Head: Griekspoor leads 1–0 (Rome 2022 qualies).

🔍 Match Breakdown

Mannarino’s recent rhythm and pattern‑breaking lefty flats can drag this into long, patience‑testing exchanges. If rallies lengthen and returns land at the feet, Griekspoor’s forehand rhythm can wobble and frustration creeps in.

On the flip side, best‑of‑five favors the bigger server if he lands first serves and keeps points short. Griekspoor’s clearest path: serve percentage north of par, attack forehand early ball, and avoid cat‑and‑mouse neutral rallies where Mannarino excels.

🔮 Prediction

Knife‑edge dynamics: form points to Mannarino, weapons to Griekspoor. Over five sets, the Dutchman’s serve + forehand combo should carry more cheap points, enough to edge the key moments even if a set spirals into Mannarino‑ball.

Pick: Griekspoor in 4 sets.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Serve + first strike: Edge Griekspoor — higher ace ceiling, quicker holds.
• Rally craft & redirection: Edge Mannarino — flattens pace, breaks rhythm.
• Form meter: Mannarino trending up; Griekspoor in a lull.
• Stamina over Bo5: Slight edge Griekspoor (age/physicality), but watch Mannarino’s management.
• Tie‑break poise: Lean Griekspoor if serve is humming; otherwise coin‑flip.
• Upset keys: Mannarino must lengthen exchanges, pin BH corner, and convert early BP looks.