Nakashima vs De Jong

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Nakashima vs De Jong — US Open 1R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 1

🧠 Form & Context

Brandon Nakashima (No. 32, age 24)

• 🇺🇸 Steady since grass: won at least one match at every stop.
• 📊 2025: 26–22 (14–10 on hard).
• 🔥 North American swing: only fell to top-20 names (Zverev, Shelton, De Minaur).
• 🏟️ US Open: R16 last year (d. Rune, Musetti; lost to Zverev).
• ⚡ Strengths: Flat precision, calm under pressure, baseline control.
• ⚠️ Slam note: Two R1 exits this year (AO, RG) but Wimbledon R3 steadied the ship.

Jesper De Jong (No. 80, age 25)

• 🇳🇱 Breakthrough season: top-100 consolidation, 31–26 in 2025.
• 🚀 Slam resilience: 4–0 in Slam R1s; has nicked sets from top-10s on big stages.
• 📈 Maiden US Open main draw after four failed qualy attempts.
• 💡 Game: Relentless fighter, sturdy in rallies, unfazed by occasion.
• ⚠️ Weakness: Serve lacks easy pop; elite returners can drag him into long sets.

📊 Head-to-Head: Nakashima leads 1–0 (Rome 2024, 2–1).

🔍 Match Breakdown

Expect a clean, tactical baseline duel. Nakashima flattens backhands early and keeps forehand depth through the middle to cut off angles; De Jong prefers to lengthen exchanges, trusting legs and patience to draw errors. On New York hard courts, the first-strike efficiency and hold reliability typically favor Nakashima.

De Jong’s Slam record suggests he won’t go quietly—he competes hard, defends well, and can turn sets with persistence. But his serve can sit up; if Nakashima gets regular looks at second serves, the American’s calm pattern discipline should create a steady drip of break chances.

Fitness edge leans Nakashima over best-of-five, though De Jong’s grit makes tie-breaks and a stolen set very live—especially if Brandon drifts for a few games.

🔮 Prediction

De Jong’s Slam resilience buys him a set, but the higher floor and cleaner ball-striking belong to Nakashima in these conditions.

Pick: Nakashima in four sets (3–1).

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Nakashima steady; De Jong competitive but streaky.
• Surface fit: Advantage Nakashima on USO hard with flatter pace.
• Serve/return: Edge Nakashima on holds and 2nd-serve pressure.
• Rally profile: De Jong thrives in length; Nakashima wins with early flattening.
• Best-of-5 outlook: Small Nakashima edge on fitness and composure late.