Gomez F. A. - Draper J.

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Federico Agustin Gomez vs Jack Draper — US Open R1 Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 1

🧠 Form & Context

Federico Agustin Gomez (No. 206, age 28)

• 🇦🇷 Inspirational rebound season after a brutal spring — turned vulnerability into a breakthrough.
• 🔥 Slam highlight: French Open R1 win over Kovacevic as a lucky loser — first GS main-draw victory.
• 📈 Qualified in New York with three wins, capping it with a dramatic Q3 over Hugo Grenier.
• 📊 2025: 14–20 (5–6 hard); mostly Challenger success; rides waves when momentum builds.
• ⚡ Style: Counterpunching, clay-leaning instincts; lacks raw pace to regularly dictate at Slam level.

Jack Draper (No. 5, age 23)

• 🇬🇧 2024 US Open semifinalist; peaked at No. 4 earlier this year.
• 🏆 2025: Indian Wells champion (d. Alcaraz SF, Rune F); finals in Madrid & Doha.
• 📉 Concern: Arm issue during the summer — skipped warm-up events; no hard-court prep since June.
• 📊 2025: 30–9 (13–3 hard).
• 💡 Profile: Lefty power server, aggressive baseline patterns; thrives in Bo5 when fit.

📘 Head-to-Head

• First meeting (0–0).

🔍 Match Breakdown

Experience gap: Top-5 pedigree and deep Slam reps on Draper’s side; Gomez is still tasting firsts at majors.

Momentum vs rust: Gomez arrives match-tough from qualies and tuned to NYC pace. Draper brings rust + a question-mark arm.

Power vs defense: If Draper’s serve is anywhere near normal, his lefty delivery and heavy FH should punch through Gomez’s counterpunching shell. If the arm limits pace/spotting, rallies lengthen and the Argentine can drag sets deep.

Scoreboard pressure: Draper defends SF points from 2024; early tightness wouldn’t shock. Gomez plays with house money.

🔮 Prediction

On baseline talent this is lopsided, but match-sharpness narrows it a touch. Expect a competitive stretch while Draper knocks off rust, then superior first-strike weight to separate.

Pick: Draper in 4 sets — one patchy set conceded, but the Brit’s top-end power should carry the big moments.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Serve weight: Draper by distance (if healthy).
• Baseline control: Draper’s FH + lefty patterns vs Gomez’s counterpunching.
• Match rhythm: Edge Gomez (qualies reps).
• Slam pedigree: Clear edge Draper.
• Live-bet cue: If Draper’s 1st-serve % dips <55% and he starts slicing second serves, Gomez +games in-set is live.