Mattia Bellucci vs Juncheng Shang

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Mattia Bellucci vs Juncheng Shang — US Open R1 Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 1

🧠 Form & Context

Mattia Bellucci (No. 65, age 24)

• 🇮🇹 Lefty who broke through in 2023–24; searching for week-to-week consistency in 2025.
• 📉 2025: 21–25 (7–10 hard).
• 🔥 Positives: Sumter Challenger title this month; Wimbledon 3R (best Slam result).
• ⚠️ Negatives: Only one tour-level win across Toronto, Cincinnati, Winston-Salem; confidence wobbly.
• 🏟️ US Open: Qualies in 2023; 2R in 2024.

Juncheng Shang (No. 111, age 20)

• 🇨🇳 Talented left-hander with explosive baseline game.
• 📉 2025: 3–4 after a 6+ month injury layoff; blew leads in Toronto & Cincinnati losses.
• 🔥 Career highs: Reached No. 47 in 2024; first ATP title last year.
• 🏟️ US Open: 3R in 2024 (pushed Ruud to five).
• ⚠️ Worries: Match rust and durability after the long layoff; retirements earlier this year.

📘 Head-to-Head

• First meeting (0–0).

🔍 Match Breakdown

Momentum: Bellucci arrives with fresh reps and a recent title; Shang lacks rhythm after months out and a painful blown lead vs Etcheverry in Cincy.

Playstyle (lefty vs lefty): Bellucci leans on grinding consistency and depth; Shang seeks to seize the baseline with heavier topspin and early acceleration.

Physical battle: Best-of-five spotlights Shang’s durability. Bellucci’s Wimbledon 3R shows workable Slam stamina.

Intangibles: Bellucci’s self-belief has wavered on the main tour, but Shang’s layoff/rust makes him the more fragile profile in tight sets.

🔮 Prediction

Opportunity match for both. If Shang redlines early he can nick a set, but over the distance Bellucci’s steadier rally tolerance and current match readiness should tell.

Pick: Bellucci in 4 sets — expect a streaky middle phase, then the Italian to close with safer patterns.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• First-strike pop: Shang.
• Rally tolerance/consistency: Bellucci.
• Match fitness (Bo5): Edge Bellucci.
• Upside ceiling: Shang when timing clicks.
• Live-bet cue: If Shang’s pace dips after set 2 (shorter rallies, fewer FH winners), Bellucci -games in the third/fourth becomes attractive.