Struff J-L. - McDonald M.

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Jan‑Lennard Struff vs Mackenzie McDonald — US Open 1R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 1

🧠 Form & Context

Jan‑Lennard Struff (No. 144, age 35)

• 🇩🇪 Big‑serving German, peaked inside the top 20 in 2024; slump since the Paris Olympics.
• 📉 2025: 14–23 overall, 4–9 on hard; qualified here by beating Chidekh, Daniel, and Cazaux.
• 🔥 Slam note: Wimbledon 3R (pushed Alcaraz); RG R1 loss to Ofner.
• 🏟️ US Open: 4–5 in R1s; no win in New York since 2020; has blown leads in 5‑setters.
• 💡 Game: Serve + forehand aggression, but streaky and vulnerable closing sets.

Mackenzie McDonald (No. 100, age 30)

• 🇺🇸 Crafty counter‑puncher, dangerous on home hard courts amid up‑and‑down results.
• 📊 2025: 25–21 overall, 13–10 on hard; won San Diego Challenger (Feb); recent Winston‑Salem R2.
• 🏟️ US Open: 2 career MD wins in 10 tries (best R2 in 2021, 2023).
• 🔥 Slam past: Wimbledon 2018 R16, AO 2021 R16; known for one‑off upsets.
• 💡 Game: Redirects pace, uses timing and court craft more than raw power.

Head‑to‑head: First meeting (0–0).

🔍 Match Breakdown

Form: Both are flaky this season, but McDonald’s hard‑court baseline looks a touch sharper. Struff needed qualies to settle, which helps rhythm but doesn’t erase recent wobble.

Patterns: Struff wants first‑strike tennis—big serve, +1 forehand, short points. McDonald’s best lane is to absorb, redirect, and stretch exchanges until Struff’s error rate climbs.

Physical lens: Over best‑of‑five, the younger, steadier mover has the edge. Struff’s history of late‑match fades and tight‑finish nerves is a risk profile in NYC’s grind.

Intangibles: McDonald hasn’t loved this event historically, but Struff’s closure issues from winning positions keep the door open for momentum swings on Ashe‑adjacent courts.

🔮 Prediction

If Struff lands >65% first serves, he can turn this into coin‑flip sets and sneak a breaker. Over distance, McDonald’s return consistency and rally management are likelier to carry.

Pick: McDonald in four sets (3–1).

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Slight lean McDonald on hard vs Struff’s stop‑start year.
• Surface fit: Struff’s first‑strike weapons vs McDonald’s redirect/control on medium pace.
• Serve/return: Serve edge Struff; return/resets edge McDonald.
• First‑strike vs grind: Struff wants 3–5‑shot points; Mac aims for 8–10+ ball rallies.
• Bo5 factor: Durability and closing chops favor McDonald.
• Nerves/crowd: Home crowd for Mac; Struff’s late‑set volatility a known risk.