Novak Djokovic vs Alexandre Muller

Wimbledon 2025 – 1st Round Preview
Novak Djokovic vs Alexandre Muller

🧠 Form & Context

Novak Djokovic

• 🎯 Wimbledon ambition: Aiming to tie Roger Federer’s record with an 8th Wimbledon title. Holds a 92–11 lifetime record at SW19.
• 💪 Slam reset: After a rocky start to 2025, found stability with a Roland Garros semifinal—beat Zverev, lost to Alcaraz in four.
• 🧠 Controlled prep: Skipped lead-up grass events in favor of rest. Played Hurlingham exo (loss to Khachanov) for rhythm, not results.
• 🏰 Early-round dominance: Hasn't lost before R3 at Wimbledon since 2008. R1 matches are typically efficient tune-ups.
• 📌 H2H: Leads Muller 1–0 (2023 US Open, won 6–0, 6–2, 6–3).

Alexandre Muller

• 🚨 Form slump: After early 2025 highs (Hong Kong title, Rio SF), has gone 3–9, with four straight losses entering Wimbledon.
• 🌱 Grass mismatch: 0–4 at Wimbledon in main draw matches. Struggles to adapt his game to slick, low-bouncing surfaces.
• 🚧 Top-tier wall: 0–6 vs Top 10 players in Slams—has never won a set against elite opposition in best-of-five formats.
• ⚡ Brief sparks: Has upset names like Zverev this year, but those came on clay/hard—not on grass or in Slams.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Djokovic enters the draw with clarity of purpose—this is a Slam he historically owns, and Muller isn’t the type to trouble him early. Even if Novak starts a bit cold, his experience in navigating early Slam rounds means he’ll adjust swiftly.

Muller’s best shot is attacking early and hoping Djokovic is still dialing in. However, Djokovic’s serve placement, return pressure, and ability to extend rallies on grass will expose Muller’s limited variety. The Frenchman lacks the weapons to win points repeatedly on his terms.

Expect Novak to use this match to practice elements of his grass-court game—he may experiment with serve-volley, slice variation, and angles. Even in a tighter set, his poise in key moments remains unmatched.

🔮 Prediction

Unless Djokovic shows significant rust or physical limitation, this is a mismatch. Muller may fight through a close set early, but once Djokovic finds rhythm, this should be straightforward.

Prediction: Djokovic in 3 sets (3–0). One set may go to a breaker, but sustained rallies and control from Novak will dominate proceedings.