Jessica Pegula vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto

WTA Wimbledon – 1st Round
Jessica Pegula vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto

🧠 Form & Context

• Jessica Pegula
  👑 Grass title incoming: Pegula just lifted the Bad Homburg trophy, defeating Navarro, Noskova, and Swiatek in succession—her best form of the year.
  🔥 Champion's rhythm: 35–12 on the season with 3 titles (Austin, Charleston, Bad Homburg). Clearly peaking at the right time.
  🌱 Proven on grass: Now a two-time grass-court titlist, Pegula’s smart court positioning and clean ball-striking translate beautifully to quick surfaces.
  📍 Wimbledon history: QF in 2023, R3 in 2022. Solid track record here, particularly against unseeded players.
  🧱 Slam consistency: Has passed the opening round at 8 consecutive Slams—very reliable as a heavy favorite.
• Elisabetta Cocciaretto
  🔄 Form revival: After a brutal start to 2025, Cocciaretto found rhythm in 's-Hertogenbosch, beating Hartono, Pera, and Lamens to reach the semis.
  📉 Still shaky: Despite her mini-rebound on grass, she’s won back-to-back main-draw matches in only 1 of 16 tournaments this year.
  📉 Ranking dip: The former World No. 29 is now outside the Top 110 due to her poor start and limited success on hard and clay.
  🧠 Wimbledon comfort: Reached R3 here in 2023 and R2 in 2022—but both runs came during better form spells.
  ❌ Top-5 hurdle: She has never beaten a top-5 player and lost 6-4, 6-0 to Pegula in their only meeting (Wimbledon 2023).

🔍 Match Breakdown

Pegula's style—taking the ball early, redirecting pace, and exploiting court geometry—is tailor-made for grass. Her win over Swiatek was not a fluke; she hit through a slower court and defended her service games with clinical efficiency.

Cocciaretto plays heavy from the baseline and prefers longer rallies, but she lacks the firepower to consistently hurt Pegula. On grass, the margin for error shrinks—and Pegula punishes short or loopy balls.

The Italian has had a nice few weeks, but her wins came against much lower-tier opposition. Pegula, meanwhile, is brimming with confidence and rhythm, and she enters this match sharper than ever.

If Cocciaretto wants to make this competitive, she’ll need to serve at a very high level and bring variety to disrupt Pegula’s flow. That’s unlikely to last across multiple sets.

🔮 Prediction

Cocciaretto is capable of hanging in some early exchanges, but Pegula’s current form, surface comfort, and past dominance in this matchup point strongly toward a routine win.
Prediction: Pegula in 2 sets, likely with one tight set and one runaway. The gap in top-level execution is just too wide.