Alex de Minaur vs Roberto Carballés Baena

ATP Wimbledon – 1st Round
Alex de Minaur vs Roberto Carballés Baena

🧠 Form & Context

• Alex de Minaur
  ⚠️ Mini-slump: Blew a two-set lead vs Bublik at Roland Garros and followed it up with a tame loss to Lehecka at Queen’s.
  📉 Out of the Top 10: That second-round exit in Paris cost him valuable points—he’s now ranked #11.
  🎾 Grass specialist: Over 50 career wins on grass, two ATP titles, and a Wimbledon QF showing in 2024.
  📈 Slam track: Deep runs at multiple majors this year, including AO QF and Monte Carlo SF.
  🔁 Needs reset: A cushy matchup here could be just what he needs to turn around this grass swing.
• Roberto Carballés Baena
  🌱 Not a grass lover: 7–16 career W/L record on the surface, and only 1R wins in 6 Wimbledon main draws.
  ⛔️ No warm-ups: Missed the grass season buildup due to an injury sustained in Rome.
  🎯 Slam fighter: Did reach the 3R in Melbourne this year with solid wins over Duckworth and Tabilo.
  📉 Zero top-20 wins on grass: Lost to Rune (2023) and Zverev (2022) in straight sets.
  🔁 Wimbledon trend: Regular early exits; hasn’t ever reached R3 here.

🔍 Match Breakdown

De Minaur is quicker, more experienced, and more comfortable on grass than his Spanish opponent. His ability to redirect pace, flatten out shots, and glide on the surface gives him a distinct advantage.

Carballés Baena lacks the aggressive serve or compact strokes that grass rewards. On top of that, he’s arriving without match prep, and facing someone who plays fast and early off the bounce—his least favorite combination. If De Minaur’s movement is sharp and his mind focused, this shouldn’t go long.

The only risk here is complacency or a continued hangover from back-to-back losses, but the matchup is far too favorable for that to matter much.

🔮 Prediction

De Minaur couldn’t ask for a softer landing spot after his recent hiccups. His footspeed and low-trajectory hitting are tailor-made for grass, while RCB’s game is allergic to it. Expect the Aussie to cruise into round two.

🧩 Prediction: De Minaur in straight sets (3–0) – with the potential for a lopsided scoreline unless early nerves creep in.