Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin

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Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin — US Open 2R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Jannik Sinner (No. 1, age 24)

• 🇮🇹 World No. 1 and defending champion in New York.
• 📊 2025: 32–4 overall, 13–1 on hard.
• 🔥 Slam streak: Finals at last four majors (AO W, RG F, Wimbledon W, defending here).
• 🏟️ US Open: 2024 champion; opened 2025 by dismantling Kopriva 6–1, 6–1, 6–2.
• 💡 Stat: In 36 matches this year, 22 sets ended 6–0 or 6–1.
• ⚠️ Watchpoint: Retired as a precaution in the Cincinnati final vs Alcaraz.

Alexei Popyrin (No. 36, age 26)

• 🇦🇺 Big-serving, streaky shotmaker.
• 📊 2025: 18–20 overall, 7–9 on hard.
• 🔥 R1: Beat Ruusuvuori in straights (opponent in poor form).
• 🏟️ US Open: R16 in 2024 (stunned Djokovic in R3).
• ⚡ Upset profile: Seven top-10 wins across his last ten such meetings — dangerous when timing clicks.
• ⚠️ Consistency: Only two R16s in his Slam career; form line this season is negative.

🔍 Match Breakdown

H2H: Popyrin leads 1–0 (Madrid 2021, clay — 7–6, 6–2). Largely irrelevant given surfaces and Sinner’s evolution.

Sinner’s edge: Relentless baseline pace, improved serve patterns, surgical depth. On hard, only peak Alcaraz/Djokovic levels have consistently troubled him.

Popyrin’s path: Serve lights-out, jump Sinner’s second serve, keep points short. If rallies lengthen, Sinner’s precision and weight of shot take over.

Momentum snapshot: Sinner has reached the final in 5 of 6 events in 2025; Popyrin enters with a losing record on the season.

🔮 Prediction

Barring fitness regression from Cincinnati, this tilts heavily to the No. 1. Popyrin can pocket a streaky run of games with first-strike serving, but sustained resistance is unlikely against Sinner’s tempo and discipline.

Pick: Sinner in 3 sets — at least one set likely 6–1 or 6–2.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Serve & +1 ball: Edge Sinner — higher first-serve hold stability and cleaner plus-one structure.
• Baseline weight/consistency: Sinner comfortably.
• Shotmaking volatility: Popyrin higher — upside for spurts, downside for quick dips.
• Return pressure: Sinner — elite depth/tempo on second-serve returns.
• Bo5 fitness/mentality: Sinner — proven Slam engine and scoreboard management.