Nuno Borges vs Tommy Paul

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Nuno Borges vs Tommy Paul — US Open 2R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Nuno Borges (No. 41, age 28)

• 🇵🇹 Portugal’s top player, steady Slam performer of late.
• 📊 2025: 27–25 overall, 13–11 on hard.
• 🔥 USO R1: Def. Brandon Holt 6–4, 6–2, 6–3, snapping a three-tournament skid.
• 🏟️ Slam 2025: AO 3R, RG 3R, Wim 3R — hunting a 4/4 R3 run.
• 💡 Game: Patient baseline, loves extended rallies; drags opponents into physical tests.
• ⚠️ Concern: Trouble closing vs better opposition (losses this summer to Ruud, Rinderknech, Majchrzak).

Tommy Paul (No. 14, age 28)

• 🇺🇸 Reliable American Slam contender with a rounded, athletic game.
• 📊 2025: 28–12 overall, 12–5 on hard.
• 🔥 USO R1: Breezed past Elmer Møller 6–3, 6–3, 6–1.
• 🏟️ Slam 2025: AO QF, RG QF, Wim 2R — already double-digit Slam wins this year.
• ⚡ Context: Limited pre-USO prep after injuries disrupted grass & summer hard swing.
• 💡 Strengths: All-court variety, first-strike gear, and smooth defense-to-offense transitions.

H2H: First meeting (0–0).

🔍 Match Breakdown

Borges wants a trench war — lengthen exchanges, test Paul’s gas tank, and lean on first-serve percentage to avoid getting bullied on second balls. His rhythm can frustrate attackers, especially if he keeps his depth and targets the Paul forehand corner to open backhands.

Paul owns the higher ceiling and first-strike pop. If he lands a high rate of first serves and steps in on seconds, he can control tempo, keep rallies short, and spare the legs. Any lingering fitness rust shifts leverage toward Borges in long, scrappy sets.

Key dynamics: Borges’ grind vs Paul’s aggression; whether Paul stays sharp physically over best-of-five; Borges’ chances to pounce during any serve-rhythm dips from Paul.

🔮 Prediction

Borges will make this a body-blow match and could nick a set if he turns it into a tug-of-war. But with home lift and the cleaner weapons in the big moments, Paul should find separation as the match wears on.

Pick: Paul in 4 sets — Borges fights, Paul’s quality in key points prevails.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Borges steady; Paul efficient after a smooth R1.
• Surface fit: Both competent on hard; edge Paul for first-strike potency.
• Physicality: Longer rallies tilt toward Borges; shorter points favor Paul.
• Serve/Return: Paul’s first-serve + forehand combo is the biggest single edge.
• Intangibles: Arthur Ashe lift for Paul; Borges thrives if he drags it deep.