Matteo Arnaldi vs Botic van de Zandschulp

ATP Wimbledon – 1st Round
Matteo Arnaldi vs Botic van de Zandschulp

🧠 Form & Context

• Matteo Arnaldi
  📈 Rising force: Broke into the Top 30 this year and owns signature 2025 wins over Djokovic, Rublev, and Tiafoe.
  🚪 Slam block: Wimbledon remains the only major where he’s never won a main-draw match—R1 exits in 2023 and 2024.
  🌱 Limited prep: Only played Stuttgart this swing (lost to Struff in straights).
  ⚔️ Grit factor: Took out Auger-Aliassime from two sets down at RG; proven five-set fighter.
  ⛓️ Seeking breakthrough: This match offers his best shot yet at ending the R1 curse.


• Botic van de Zandschulp
  🧨 Former grass threat: 4R at Wimbledon 2022, unbeaten in first rounds here (4–0 record).
  ⛔ Downward spiral: 10–16 record in 2025, currently on a four-match losing skid; last loss came to a player outside the Top 250.
  🌱 Grass gloom: 0–3 on grass this season, with poor Challenger-level showings too.
  🔧 H2H: Beat Arnaldi in 2023 Davis Cup (tight 7–6, 3–6, 7–6).
  💭 Confidence crisis: Mentally shaky in crunch moments lately; the Botic of old feels long gone.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a case of trajectories diverging: Arnaldi rising but inexperienced on grass; Botic declining but with a better skillset for this surface.

Arnaldi thrives on structured rallies, but his loopy forehand can get rushed on grass. Still, his backhand remains reliable, and his return positioning is smart. His five-set stamina also gives him a buffer.

Van de Zandschulp, meanwhile, has a game that *should* work on grass—flat strokes, a compact backhand, and an ability to punish second serves. But when under pressure this year, he’s misfired badly. The Dutchman struggles to close sets and loses composure fast.

Key tactical pivot: Arnaldi needs to survive the first four shots. If he does, Botic tends to leak errors. But if Botic lands early returns and shortens rallies, the match tilts quickly.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Arnaldi in 4 sets – Grass may not be his forte, but his current level, grit, and the Dutchman’s confidence woes point to a gritty breakthrough win for the Italian.