Holger Rune vs Nicolás Jarry

ATP Wimbledon – 1st Round
Holger Rune vs Nicolás Jarry

🧠 Form & Context

• Holger Rune
  📉 Uneven build-up: Lost to Bautista Agut (Queen’s) and Jack Draper (Hurlingham), and labored past McDonald in three sets.
  🧠 Questionable focus: Rune’s 2025 has oscillated between brilliance (Barcelona finalist) and baffling lapses (losses to Borges, Cobolli).
  🌱 Grass credentials: QF at Wimbledon 2023, R4 in 2024. Despite raw movement, his power game fits the surface.
  💪 Slam-tested: Made the second week at AO and RG in 2025, but often via grueling five-setters—needs an efficient start here.
  ❗Key concern: Physical wear and mental dips in recent matches.


• Nicolás Jarry
  🔥 In rhythm: 6–3 on grass this month, including three wins in Wimbledon qualifying.
  🔨 Big-serve threat: At 6’6”, Jarry’s delivery is a consistent weapon—especially effective on grass.
  👀 Dangerous underdog: Owns wins over top-10 players on grass, including Rune’s Queen’s conqueror, Bautista Agut.
  ⚠️ Slam letdowns: Has only one main-draw Wimbledon win since 2019, but this is his best grass form coming into a major.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Rune may be the seeded favorite, but this is no walkover. Jarry’s massive serve, flat groundstrokes, and newfound confidence make him a serious threat—especially early. Rune has struggled against big servers when he plays too far back or fails to land enough returns deep.

The Dane’s power baseline game can click quickly, but when rushed—especially on grass—his footwork can falter, and his shot selection gets aggressive. Jarry will look to keep rallies short, hold comfortably, and squeeze Rune in tight tiebreaks or pressure games.

The wildcard is Rune’s firepower: when he flips the switch, he can steamroll through sets. But if he’s forced to go the distance again, physical fatigue might creep in—especially given recent signs of cramping and sluggish recovery in third sets.

🔮 Prediction

Expect Jarry to be dangerous early and possibly steal a set with his serving spree. But Rune’s explosiveness and edge in rally tolerance—if he keeps his focus—should get him over the line in a match that could test his composure again.

Prediction: Rune in 4 tight sets — Jarry lands plenty of blows, but Rune’s firepower and Slam edge carry him through.