Karen Khachanov vs Mackenzie McDonald

ATP Wimbledon – 1st Round
Karen Khachanov vs Mackenzie McDonald

🧠 Form & Context

• Karen Khachanov
  💪 Strong 2025 grass swing (6–2), including Halle SF and Hurlingham win over Djokovic.
  🏆 Grand Slam regular with QFs or better at all majors; Wimbledon QF in 2021.
  📉 0–9 vs Top 20 this season, but rarely drops early rounds.
  🎯 Undefeated in Wimbledon openers (5–0), including a win over McDonald in 2021.


• Mackenzie McDonald
  📉 Recovering from injury-hit 2023–24 seasons; now outside top 100.
  🌱 Grass brings out his best—6–4 this year with wins over Monfils and Bellucci.
  🚪 Slam slide: No main draw wins since 2023 US Open.
  🔁 0–5 head-to-head vs Khachanov, including a recent close match on grass.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This clash favors Khachanov on all fronts—form, head-to-head, and physicality. The Russian's flat, aggressive baseline game thrives on grass, and his serve is a key weapon on slick surfaces. Confidence is peaking after a win over Djokovic and a run of solid results this swing.

McDonald does have grass skills—his footwork and compact strokes work well—but he hasn't sustained high-level performances in recent slams. While their recent match in 's-Hertogenbosch was tight, the best-of-five format and Khachanov’s deeper toolkit should widen the gap here.

If McDonald doesn’t take early control or disrupt rhythm with aggressive returning, Khachanov is likely to dictate play and coast through long rallies, especially in set three and beyond.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Khachanov in 3 sets – expect a tight first set but growing control from the Russian thereafter.

Betting angle: Khachanov –1.5 sets or ML parlay leg. McDonald’s form and history vs Khachanov suggest low upset potential.