🎾 Bad Homburg – WTA Round of 16
Match: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Maria Sakkari
Date: 25 June 2025
Start Time: 11:00 CEST
Surface: Grass
🧠 Form & Context
Ekaterina Alexandrova
🔥 Riding a hot stretch on grass: 4–1 this swing, including a semifinal run in Rosmalen and a brutal 6-1, 6-2 win over Bencic in R1.
📊 She’s already racked up 24 wins in 2025 and made the quarterfinals or better in five of her last seven events.
🌱 Grass pedigree: Eight career quarterfinals or better on the surface. Her flat strokes stay low and rush opponents.
🧱 Confidence is climbing — she’s taken out Pegula, Kudermetova, and Sabalenka this year.
Maria Sakkari
📉 Ranked outside the Top 80 after a tough year full of early exits.
⏳ Has only won back-to-back matches twice in her last 15 tournaments.
⚔️ Beat Putintseva in R1, but nearly collapsed in the second set — her form is still shaky.
🧠 Leads the H2H 6–1 against Alexandrova, though most of those wins came when she was at her peak.
🔍 Match Breakdown
This is a match between a player building serious grass momentum and another still trying to find her game. Alexandrova is tailor-made for slick surfaces: her first-strike tennis, compact swings, and ability to flatten out shots make her a nightmare on grass.
Sakkari has the athleticism and defense to stay in rallies, but her confidence is fragile. Her forehand has been misfiring all year, and she’s struggled with consistent footwork on grass — especially when rushed.
The Russian will likely target Sakkari’s second serve and look to end points early. If the Greek can’t hit her spots on serve or gets dragged behind the baseline, she’s in trouble. Alexandrova should own the tempo unless nerves or history creep in.
🔮 Prediction
Momentum, surface, and recent level all favor Alexandrova. While Sakkari might hang around in one set, it’s hard to trust her level right now — especially under scoreboard pressure.
Pick: Alexandrova in 2 sets — expect one competitive set, then a comfortable finish if she holds nerve.
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