🧠 Form & Context
Dayana Yastremska
🇺🇦 Currently ranked No. 42, and a former top-25 player with five WTA titles to her name.
📊 2025 campaign stands at 22–13 overall, including a 5–1 record on grass—runner-up at Nottingham last week.
💥 Relies on ultra-aggressive, first-strike tennis—particularly lethal on backhand returns.
🛡️ Delivered under pressure in R1, saving all 4 break points faced against Linette.
Francesca Jones
🇬🇧 British hopeful ranked No. 125 and closing in on a Top 100 debut.
📈 26–10 in 2025, with an ITF title in Prague and a solid season at lower levels.
👟 Brings a topspin-heavy forehand and excellent movement, but her second serve remains a liability.
⚑ Still looking for a breakthrough top-50 win this season—would be a career-best scalp.
Head-to-head: Yastremska leads 1–0 (Madrid 2025: 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-3).
🔍 Match Breakdown
Serve & Return: Yastremska has averaged over 4.5 aces per grass match this swing and pounces on second serves. Jones holds just 60% behind her second delivery this year, so raising her first-serve percentage is critical to avoid being rushed.
Baseline Battle: Yastremska’s flat, penetrating shots match up well with the low grass bounce. Jones prefers more lift to wind up her forehand, so she may try to loop higher balls and change tempo. But any short reply will likely be punished by the Ukrainian’s aggressive instincts.
Momentum & Confidence: Yastremska enters on a 9–2 run with a recent WTA final under her belt, while Jones has match rhythm but little main-draw experience on grass at this level (just two WTA grass wins total).
Intangibles: The crowd will favor Jones, but Yastremska has the proven big-stage poise and success in fast conditions—three of her five career finals have come on grass.
🔮 Prediction
Jones will scrap and test Yastremska’s consistency, but the Ukrainian’s superior power, grass comfort, and recent form should carry her through. Expect tight passages, but class to tell in the bigger moments.
Pick: Yastremska in 2 sets — likely around 6–4, 6–3.
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