ATP Eastbourne – Sonego vs Humbert

🧠 Form & Context

Lorenzo Sonego
✅ Opened strong with a commanding 6-2, 6-4 win over Marozsán—his first tour-level grass victory of 2025.
✨ In-form on grass: straight-set win over Struff and pushed Zverev to a final-set tiebreak in Halle last week.
🔄 Slowly building confidence again after a rocky season (11–15), but posted strong service stats—winning 68% of first-serve points on grass.
⚡ Has history here: reached the Eastbourne final in 2021 and knows how to navigate these slick lawns.

Ugo Humbert
💥 Big lefty serve and clean ball-striking underpin his top-20 status. Took the Marseille title indoors and made the SF in ’s-Hertogenbosch.
🛑 Enters fresh with a first-round bye as the No. 4 seed—Eastbourne debut this year.
📉 Suffered a disappointing 1R exit in Halle to Shapovalov but still owns a 15–12 record on the season and is 2–2 on grass.
🔫 Plays a textbook lefty game: wide serves on the ad side and finishes with a flat forehand to the open court.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Sonego’s success hinges on two key stats: his first-serve percentage and forehand output. If he hits above 65% first serves and notches 10+ forehand winners, he can mask his weaker backhand and dictate from the front.

Humbert’s strategy is more refined—he uses the wide slider serve and flat forehand combination to break down opponents. His first-serve points won on grass sits at 72% this year, and his compact backhand often holds up better in extended rallies than Sonego’s looping strokes.

Sonego leads in raw ace counts, but Humbert does better under pressure—61% of break points saved in 2025 compared to Sonego’s 54%. Expect quick games and forehand duels, with the match likely hinging on just a few return games and tight scoreboard moments.

🔮 Prediction

Sonego’s Eastbourne pedigree and confidence from Halle suggest he’ll make this competitive. If he starts well and lands a high first-serve percentage, he can steal a set. But over the long run, Humbert’s sharper baseline patterns and clean lefty serving edge him ahead—especially with fresher legs.

Pick: Humbert in 3 sets — likely decided by a tiebreak or narrow break late in the decider.