The WTA Finals in Indian Wells is down to its last four. Mirra Andreeva went 3-0 through her group without dropping a set and now meets home favourite Jessica Pegula. Group A winner Linda Noskova then faces Elina Svitolina, who beat Sabalenka last night to reach the semis. Here's our breakdown, with live Polymarket markets for both matches.
WTA Finals · Semi-final · 21:00 CET
Jessica Pegula vs Mirra Andreeva
Market odds: Pegula 3.36 | Andreeva 1.37
Road to the Semis
Andreeva has been the player of the week. She beat Svitolina 6-4 6-0, Sabalenka 6-4 6-0 and Shnaider 6-2 6-1, losing only 13 games in six sets. The one question is rest, because this is her second match in two days. Pegula had a harder route. She lost to Gauff in three sets, then beat Kostyuk 6-2 7-5 and Noskova 7-6 4-6 7-5. That is eight sets in three matches, but she has had a day off since. She was runner-up at this event in 2023 and will have the home crowd behind her. These two have never played each other.
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Unlock the pick on Patreon → Pegula vs Andreeva on Polymarket →WTA Finals · Semi-final · 22:30 CET
Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina
Market odds: Noskova 1.60 | Svitolina 2.47
Form & Context
Noskova is making her WTA Finals debut and won Group A. She beat Kostyuk and Gauff in straight sets, then lost a close one to Pegula, 7-5 in the third. She has had a day off since. Svitolina, the 2018 champion, came through Group B the hard way. After a 4-6 0-6 loss to Andreeva she won two three-setters in a row, against Muchova and then Sabalenka last night as a 2.88 underdog. This is her second match in two days.
Tale of the Tape
- Noskova: holds 80.9% of service games with 0.66 aces per game, but breaks in only 32.1% of return games and wins just 44.4% of tiebreaks. Most of her big season came on grass (12-1); she is 19-11 on hard courts over the last 52 weeks
- Svitolina: breaks in 42.2% of return games and converts 50.6% of break points, and is 35-11 on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. She has won all 36 matches this year in which she took the first set
- H2H: Noskova leads 3-1 and has won both of their completed hard-court meetings
- Form score: a dead heat at 70.8 vs 71.1
Our Read
The market makes Noskova a 60% favourite, and we're close to that number. She leads the head-to-head and is the fresher player. Svitolina has the better hard-court record and the stronger return game. The first set looks like the key. Svitolina has not lost a match all year after winning the opener. Noskova has lost only once in 34 matches after winning the first set, but she has come back to win after losing it just 4 times in 19 tries. Nothing on the main lines gives us an edge before the match, so we'll wait for the first set before getting involved.
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