First-round qualifying previews from the European Open in Brussels on indoor hard courts, with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every match. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule.
Harry Wendelken vs Gauthier Onclin
🧠 Form & Context
Harry Wendelken
- 📈 Ranked No. 182 at 24, 6–4 in his last 10.
- ⚔️ Beat Onclin in a final-set tiebreak at the 2019 Australian Open juniors.
- 🎯 Wins 68.1% behind his first serve and 51.6% behind his second.
- 🏆 Has won 66% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Lands only 56.9% of first serves, and is winning 48% of recent matches.
Gauthier Onclin
- 🇧🇪 The home player: ranked No. 168 at 25, 3–7 in his last 10 but winning 59% of recent matches.
- 📉 Lost to Balshaw in the first round in Roanne this week.
- 🔁 The better returner: 44% of return points won and 46% of break points converted.
- 🏆 Strong closer – 60% of deciding sets won over his career, 62% record in best-of-three.
- 🎾 Second serve in good shape recently, at 53%.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A rematch seven years after their junior meeting in Melbourne, which went all the way to a final-set tiebreak. The market can't split them: both are priced at 1.84.
Wendelken is slightly stronger behind his serve on career numbers, but Onclin lands more first serves and has been the sharper server recently (71% vs 69% on first-serve points).
The return is Onclin's clearest edge: 44% of return points won against 40%, and 46% of break points converted against 43%.
The tight-set numbers split. Wendelken has won 66% of deciders this season; Onclin leads over their careers (60% vs 52%). Their tiebreak records are identical at 53%.
Onclin has the return, the home crowd and the better career record. Wendelken has the better last 10 – a genuine coin flip.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Wendelken | Onclin |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 182 | 168 |
| Age | 24 | 25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 56.9% | 59.8% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.1% | 66.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.6% | 49.9% |
| Break points saved | 58.3% | 58.8% |
| Break points converted | 43.1% | 46.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 44% |
| Tiebreak win % | 53% | 53% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 52% | 60% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 62% |
Joel Schwaerzler vs Federico Cina
🧠 Form & Context
Joel Schwaerzler
- 📊 Ranked No. 176 at 20, left-handed, 5–5 in his last 10.
- 🎯 Fractionally ahead behind both serves: 69.5% on first-serve points, 51.5% on second.
- 🔒 Saves 61.5% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 61% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Converts only 39.9% of break points.
Federico Cina
- 📈 Ranked No. 147 at 19, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 57% of recent matches.
- ⚔️ Beat Schwaerzler 6–4 6–1 on clay in Tunis in May.
- 🔁 The better returner: 40% of return points won and 42.4% of break points converted.
- 🔒 Saving 62% of break points recently.
- ⚠️ Only 50% of deciding sets won this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A battle between two of the best young players in qualifying – 20 and 19 years old. Cina won their only meeting comfortably on clay in May, but this is indoors on a hard court.
On serve they are almost identical: 61.2% vs 61.3% first serves in, 69.5% vs 69.3% won behind them. That points to a match decided by a handful of return games.
Cina has the return edge – 40% vs 38% of return points, and better break-point conversion – which is why he is the favourite.
Schwaerzler's left-handed serve and his deciding-set record this season (61% vs 50%) give him a route, especially if it goes the distance.
Cina has the return, the form and the head-to-head. Schwaerzler has the lefty angle and the better recent deciding-set numbers – closer than 1.46 suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Schwaerzler | Cina |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 176 | 147 |
| Age | 20 | 19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 1 |
| First serves in | 61.2% | 61.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 69.5% | 69.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.5% | 50.7% |
| Break points saved | 61.5% | 59.9% |
| Break points converted | 39.9% | 42.4% |
| Return points won (career) | 38% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 56% | 55% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 57% | 50% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 55% | 58% |
Clement Chidekh vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly
🧠 Form & Context
Clement Chidekh
- 🔥 Ranked No. 146 at 25, 9–1 in his last 10 and winning 65% of recent matches.
- 📉 Lost to Kym in two tiebreaks in the first round in Roanne this week.
- 🎾 Stronger across the board on serve: 68% on first-serve points, 51.5% on second, 59.6% of break points saved.
- 🏆 Has won 62% of deciding sets this season, with a 66% career record in best-of-three.
- 🔁 A good returner too: 43% of return points won.
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
- 🇧🇪 The home player: ranked No. 337 at 21, 4–6 in his last 10.
- 🔓 Converts 48% of break points – the best rate on court.
- 🏆 Excellent in tiebreaks: 73% won over his career.
- ⚠️ Weaker behind his serve: 64.9% on first-serve points, 54.7% of break points saved.
- ⚠️ Second serve down to 45% in recent matches, and 42% of deciding sets won this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between one of the most in-form players in qualifying and a young Belgian with home support. Chidekh is a heavy favourite at 1.11.
Chidekh leads every serve category, and his break-point defence (59.6% vs 54.7%) is much stronger.
Bailly can hurt him on return: they win the same share of return points (43%), and Bailly converts more of his chances (48% vs 44.6%).
Bailly's tiebreak record (73%) is outstanding, so tight sets would give him a real chance. Chidekh is much stronger in deciding sets this season (62% vs 42%).
Chidekh has the form, the serve and the all-round game. Bailly's return and tiebreak record could make sets close, but an upset would be a surprise.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Chidekh | Bailly |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 146 | 337 |
| Age | 25 | 21 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 62.3% | 62.2% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.0% | 64.9% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.5% | 50.4% |
| Break points saved | 59.6% | 54.7% |
| Break points converted | 44.6% | 48.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 43% | 43% |
| Tiebreak win % | 54% | 73% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 57% | 48% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 66% | 59% |
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Remy Bertola
🧠 Form & Context
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
- 📊 World No. 108 at 23, but only 2–8 in his last 10 and winning 37% of recent matches.
- 📉 Lost to Donnet in the first round in Roanne this week.
- 🚀 One of the biggest serves in the sport: 77.6% on first-serve points, 66% of break points saved.
- 🏆 Strong in tight sets – 58% of tiebreaks and 60% of deciding sets won over his career.
- ⚠️ The return is a real weakness: 31% of return points won, and 29% of break points converted recently.
Remy Bertola
- 📊 Ranked No. 227 at 28, 4–6 in his last 10, winning 51% of recent matches.
- 📉 Also lost in the first round in Roanne this week, to Virtanen.
- 🔁 The far better returner: 40% of return points won and 42.9% of break points converted.
- 🏆 60% career record in best-of-three, 54% of deciding sets won this season.
- ⚠️ Lands only 58.1% of first serves.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Two one-handed backhands and two players who lost early in Roanne this week. Mpetshi Perricard is the favourite on ranking, but his form has been poor.
His serve is the dominant weapon on court: almost nine percentage points more than Bertola behind his first serve, and far stronger break-point defence.
The problem is the return. He wins only 31% of return points and has been converting just 29% of his break chances recently, so his service games may be the only ones that look comfortable.
Bertola is a much better returner (40% of return points), which gives him more ways to break. Mpetshi Perricard is better in tiebreaks (58% vs 51%), which is where this is likely to be decided.
Mpetshi Perricard has the serve and the tiebreak record; Bertola has the return and the better recent form. This looks closer than the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Mpetshi Perricard | Bertola |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 108 | 227 |
| Age | 23 | 28 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 63.7% | 58.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 77.6% | 69.0% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 52.3% | 50.1% |
| Break points saved | 66.0% | 59.1% |
| Break points converted | 34.3% | 42.9% |
| Return points won (career) | 31% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 58% | 51% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 60% | 56% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 56% | 60% |
Nishesh Basavareddy vs Edas Butvilas
🧠 Form & Context
Nishesh Basavareddy
- 📈 Ranked No. 139 at 21, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 69% of recent matches.
- 🎯 Stronger behind both serves: 71.6% on first-serve points and 52.4% on second.
- 🔓 Converting 48% of break points recently.
- 🏆 Has won 71% of deciding sets this season, with a 66% career record in best-of-three.
- ⚠️ Lands only 57.3% of first serves, and wins only 49% of tiebreaks.
Edas Butvilas
- 📊 Ranked No. 199 at 22, 4–6 in his last 10.
- ⚔️ Beat Basavareddy 6–4 6–3 in Charleston in 2024.
- 🎾 Lands 61.1% of first serves, and is winning 73% behind them recently.
- 🔒 Saves 60.4% of break points.
- ⚠️ Only 45% of deciding sets won over his career, 48% this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A rematch of their 2024 meeting in Charleston, which Butvilas won in straight sets. Since then, Basavareddy has climbed into the top 140 and is the favourite.
The serve numbers are close. Butvilas lands more first serves and has been sharper behind them recently (73% vs 70%), but Basavareddy wins more behind both serves over his career.
On return they are level (40% of return points each), but Basavareddy has been converting break points far more often recently (48% vs 40%).
The biggest gap is in deciding sets: 71% for Basavareddy this season against 48%. Butvilas has the slight edge in tiebreaks.
Basavareddy has the form and the closing numbers; Butvilas has the first-serve percentage and the head-to-head. This looks closer than the price suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Basavareddy | Butvilas |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 139 | 199 |
| Age | 21 | 22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 1 |
| First serves in | 57.3% | 61.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 71.6% | 70.5% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 52.4% | 50.7% |
| Break points saved | 60.6% | 60.4% |
| Break points converted | 43.5% | 40.6% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 49% | 51% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 58% | 45% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 66% | 55% |
Kimmer Coppejans vs Andrea Guerrieri
🧠 Form & Context
Kimmer Coppejans
- 🇧🇪 The home player: ranked No. 232 at 32, 3–7 in his last 10.
- ⚔️ Beat Guerrieri 6–4 6–1 on clay in Barletta in 2018.
- 🎾 Slightly better on serve: 64.2% first serves in, 67.1% won behind them.
- 🏆 Wins 54% of tiebreaks over his career.
- ⚠️ Second serve is a weak spot – 48.4% won, 46% recently.
Andrea Guerrieri
- 📈 Ranked No. 165 at 27, left-handed, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 72% of recent matches.
- 📉 Lost to Kasnikowski in the second round in Olbia this week.
- 🔁 The better returner: 44% of return points won and 46% of break points converted.
- 🏆 Has won 81% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Tiebreaks are a weakness – only 44% won over his career.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A rematch eight years on from their meeting in Barletta, which Coppejans won easily. This time Guerrieri is the favourite, after a strong run of results.
The serve numbers are close, with Coppejans slightly ahead behind his first serve (67.1% vs 64.7%) and saving more break points.
Guerrieri has the better return – 44% of return points against 42% – and converts more of his break chances.
The tight-set numbers point in different directions. Guerrieri has won 81% of deciding sets this season, while Coppejans has the better tiebreak record (54% vs 44%).
Guerrieri has the form and the return; Coppejans has the home crowd and slightly the better serve. This looks closer than the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Coppejans | Guerrieri |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 232 | 165 |
| Age | 32 | 27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 64.2% | 63.5% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.1% | 64.7% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 48.4% | 47.5% |
| Break points saved | 58.0% | 56.7% |
| Break points converted | 43.3% | 46.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 44% |
| Tiebreak win % | 54% | 44% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 57% | 59% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 58% | 58% |
Aziz Dougaz vs Tom Gentzsch
🧠 Form & Context
Aziz Dougaz
- 📊 Ranked No. 430 at 29, left-handed, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 67% of recent matches.
- 📉 Lost to Dzumhur in three sets in the first round in Olbia this week.
- ⚔️ Beat Gentzsch 6–1 6–4 in Monastir in 2023.
- 🔒 Saving 66% of break points recently, with a better second serve (50% vs 47.7%).
- 🏆 Has won 61% of deciding sets this season.
Tom Gentzsch
- 📈 Ranked No. 164 at 23, 6–4 in his last 10.
- ✅ Reached the quarter-finals in Olbia this week, beating Visker and Kravchenko before losing to Dzumhur.
- 🎾 Lands 63.4% of first serves and wins 71.1% behind them.
- 🏆 Strong in tiebreaks – 60% won over his career – and 64% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Second serve is the weak spot (47.7%).
🔍 Match Breakdown
Both players arrive from Olbia this week, and both lost to Dzumhur there – Dougaz in three sets, Gentzsch in the quarter-finals yesterday. Dougaz won their only previous meeting.
The serve numbers are almost identical: 70.7% vs 71.1% on first-serve points, and 74% each in recent matches. Gentzsch lands more first serves; Dougaz is better on the second ball.
On return there is very little in it, with Dougaz fractionally ahead (40% vs 39% of return points).
If it gets tight, Gentzsch has the better tiebreak record (60% vs 50%). Both have been strong in deciding sets this season (61% vs 64%).
Gentzsch has the ranking and the tiebreak edge; Dougaz has the head-to-head and the better recent form. This looks very close.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Dougaz | Gentzsch |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 430 | 164 |
| Age | 29 | 23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 60.5% | 63.4% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.7% | 71.1% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.0% | 47.7% |
| Break points saved | 62.0% | 61.8% |
| Break points converted | 42.8% | 42.1% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 50% | 60% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 51% | 50% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 60% | 59% |
Martin Damm vs Buvaysar Gadamauri
🧠 Form & Context
Martin Damm
- 📊 World No. 104 at 23, left-handed, but 3–7 in his last 10.
- 🚀 Huge first serve: 76.5% won over his career, 76% recently.
- 🔒 Saves 65.2% of break points.
- 🏆 Wins 55% of tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Weak on return (35% of return points won), and only 38% of deciding sets won this season.
Buvaysar Gadamauri
- 🇧🇪 The home player: ranked No. 271 at 26, with a one-handed backhand, 4–6 in his last 10.
- 📈 Winning 61% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The far better returner: 41% of return points won and 42.8% of break points converted.
- 🎾 Lands 63.8% of first serves and is stronger on the second ball (51.2%).
- 🏆 Wins 57% of tiebreaks, with a 60% career record in best-of-three.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between a big-serving American and a Belgian with the home crowd behind him. Damm is a heavy favourite at 1.15.
Damm's first serve is the standout weapon – more than ten percentage points better than Gadamauri's – and his break-point defence is strong.
Everything else leans towards Gadamauri: he lands more first serves, has the better second serve, and is far better on return (41% vs 35% of return points).
Gadamauri also has the edge in tiebreaks (57% vs 55%) and deciding sets (50% vs 45% career). Damm has won only 38% of deciders this season.
Damm has the serve and the ranking. Gadamauri has the all-round game and the crowd – much closer than 1.15 suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Damm | Gadamauri |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 104 | 271 |
| Age | 23 | 26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 60.1% | 63.8% |
| 1st-serve points won | 76.5% | 66.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.2% | 51.2% |
| Break points saved | 65.2% | 59.8% |
| Break points converted | 38.9% | 42.8% |
| Return points won (career) | 35% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 55% | 57% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 45% | 50% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 58% | 60% |
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