Mensik vs Nardi

ATP Cincinnati

Jakub Mensik – Luca Nardi

🧠 Form & Context

Jakub Mensik

• 🚀 Rising star: From qualifying in Cincinnati last year to a seeded main-draw player this year.
• 🏆 Miami Masters champion (March 2025), defeating Draper, Fritz & Djokovic.
• 📈 Masters consistency: R16+ in 3 of 5 Masters events this year (Miami, Madrid, Rome).
• 🔥 US hard streak: 7-match winning run on American hard courts.
• ⚖️ Solid & reliable: Rarely drops matches to lower-ranked players when in form.

Luca Nardi

• 🎭 Streaky talent: Capable of top-50-level performances but plagued by inconsistency.
• 🌟 Big scalps: Beat Djokovic at Indian Wells 2024 (LL) — only top-20 win to date.
• 📉 Form swings: Arrived in Cincy on a 3-match losing streak, lost in qualies to Blockx, then surged with wins over Tirante & Shapovalov as underdog.
• 🆕 First Cincinnati main-draw campaign & first Masters R16 since Indian Wells 2024.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Mensik plays a measured power game backed by a strong serve and solid baseline exchanges, making him a nightmare for streaky opponents like Nardi. The Italian will need to hit his high-risk, flat groundstrokes with precision to disrupt Mensik’s rhythm, but given his pattern of dips mid-match, the Czech is likely to capitalize.

On quick Cincinnati courts, Nardi’s aggressive first-strike tennis can take sets deep if his serve clicks, but Mensik’s heavier ball and ability to stay locked in across two sets give him a clear advantage. Their only previous meeting (Miami 2024 qualies) ended in a comfortable straight-sets win for Mensik.

Key factors

• Mensik’s composure & consistency in Masters matches.
• Nardi’s shotmaking streaks — dangerous when hot, vulnerable when erratic.
• Court speed favors first-strike tennis but also rewards Mensik’s solid return game.

🔮 Prediction

Nardi has the talent to make this interesting, especially if he starts hot, but Mensik’s recent form, mental steadiness, and proven big-match temperament should carry him through without major drama.

Prediction: Mensik in 2 sets, with at least one tight set (possibly a tiebreak).