Alcaraz vs Medjedovic

ATP Cincinnati

Carlos Alcaraz – Hamad Medjedovic

🧠 Form & Context

Carlos Alcaraz

• ⚠️ Slow start alert: Needed three sets to get past Damir Dzumhur in R2 after a passive performance at times.
• 🏆 Serial champion: Already has 5 titles in 2025, including Monte Carlo, Rome, and the French Open.
• 📉 Cincinnati history: Only one final (2023) and generally labored wins here, often pushed deep by lower-ranked players.
• ⛔ Fast-court challenge: The speed in Cincinnati is not his favorite, requiring sharper starts to avoid giving underdogs belief.
• 🔥 Rivalry pressure: Sinner’s dominant opener adds extra scrutiny on Alcaraz to show authority early.

Hamad Medjedovic

• 💪 Strong comeback: Straight-sets wins over Kovacevic & Griekspoor despite not playing since retiring at Wimbledon.
• 📈 Career progress: Hit a career-high No. 61 this season with notable wins over Medvedev (Marseille) & strong showings vs top players.
• 🚑 Fitness management: Chronic physical setbacks remain his biggest obstacle, especially in long matches.
• 🆕 Masters milestone: First-ever R16 at Masters 1000 level; only prior 3R was vs Medvedev in Rome 2024 (tight 3-setter).

🔍 Match Breakdown

Alcaraz’s shot tolerance, creativity, and court coverage should keep him in control, but on this quicker hard court, Medjedovic’s first-strike tennis and big serve can threaten in spurts. If the Serb serves well early and shortens points, he can push a set deep or even steal it. However, given his fitness history, sustaining that level over best-of-three against Alcaraz is unlikely.

For Alcaraz, the key is avoiding the flat periods seen vs Dzumhur—if he starts with high intensity and keeps Medjedovic on the move, the physical gap will widen quickly. Medjedovic’s best hope is to make the opening set a tiebreak and hope Alcaraz gets impatient.

🔮 Prediction

Medjedovic has the weapons to create highlight moments, but not the physical consistency to take out Alcaraz here unless the Spaniard has an off day. Expect a few close games early, then a pull-away.

Prediction: Alcaraz in 2 sets (tight first, comfortable second).