Opelka vs Comesana

ATP Cincinnati

Opelka R. – Comesana F.

🧠 Form & Context

Reilly Opelka

• 🎯 Back in business: Returned from a long injury layoff just over a year ago, climbing from unranked to #65 in the live rankings.
• 💥 Big wins in 2025: Defeated top names like Novak Djokovic (Brisbane), Daniil Medvedev (’s-Hertogenbosch), and most recently Alex de Minaur (Cincinnati 2R).
• 📈 Consistent impact: Runner-up in Brisbane, SF in ’s-Hertogenbosch, multiple 3R runs at Masters events this year.
• 🚀 Serve power: Hardcourt record in 2025 stands at 14–8; dangerous in short points and tiebreaks.
• ⚠️ Variability: Still prone to bad losses (e.g., Gaston, Buse), and match rhythm can dip if returns fail to land.

Francisco Comesana

• 🌟 Breakthrough run: First Cincinnati Masters appearance; beat Munar and an underprepared Darderi to reach the 3R.
• 🌍 Adaptability: Typically clay-focused, but has shown he can punch above his weight on faster courts (Madrid Masters R3, US Open R3).
• 🔎 First full ATP season: Already reached the 3R in four major events, but hasn’t yet made it to a last-16 in a Masters or Slam.
• 📊 Hardcourt work-in-progress: 2025 record is 6–5; mainly gains advantage by disrupting rhythm and mixing spins/placements.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Opelka enters as the more proven hardcourt threat, especially in North America, with elite serve numbers and a proven ability to win tiebreaks. His straight-sets win over De Minaur showed not just power but solid baseline resistance, which bodes well against a player like Comesana, who needs extended rallies to disrupt rhythm.

Comesana’s best hope lies in Opelka’s lapses—if he can drag rallies long, pressure the American’s movement, and steal a set in a tiebreak, the match complexion changes. However, Opelka’s serve is a huge equalizer, and his tiebreak pedigree (10–5 in breakers this year) means Comesana may have to break him outright—an uphill battle on this surface.

Expect a serve-dominated first set. If Opelka wins that, momentum heavily shifts his way. Comesana’s debut run here is impressive, but Opelka’s regional comfort, big-match wins, and surface suitability make him the deserved favorite.

🔮 Prediction

Opelka’s serve and Cincinnati experience should carry him through, but if his return game dips, Comesana can extend sets deep. Still, given current form and confidence, the likely outcome is:

Prediction: Opelka in 2 tight sets, with at least one tiebreak.

🏷️ Labels: ATP Cincinnati, Reilly Opelka, Francisco Comesana, Tennis Predictions, Match Preview