The Nitto ATP Finals get under way today in Turin. World No. 1 Alexander Zverev opens against debutant Rafael Jodar, and Ben Shelton meets Arthur Fils in the night session. All four players lost their last match in straight sets, so nobody arrives in great form. Here's our breakdown of both matches.
ATP Finals · Round Robin · 14:00 CET
Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Jodar
Market odds: Zverev 1.44 | Jodar 3.01
Form & Context
Zverev has had the best season of his career. He won Roland Garros and the US Open, and he has won this event twice before, in 2018 and 2021. But his indoor swing ended badly. He lost two in a row as a heavy favourite: 4-6 6-1 6-7 to De Minaur in the Vienna semi-finals, then 6-7 2-6 to Musetti in his first match in Paris. He hasn't played for 11 days. Jodar is making his debut at 20, in his first full season on tour. He won Marrakech, reached the finals in Shanghai and Washington, and got into the field after Sinner withdrew. Since Shanghai he is 2-2 indoors. He lost to Vacherot in a final-set tiebreak in Basel and to Ruud 3-6 4-6 in Paris, and he has been off for 12 days.
Tale of the Tape
- Zverev: holds 90.2% of service games with 0.75 aces per game, wins 69% of tiebreaks, and is 33-13 on ATP hard courts over the last 52 weeks. Against the top 10, though, he is only 3-10
- Jodar: breaks in 30.3% of return games and converts 43.7% of break points. His serve is the weak spot: he holds 80.9% of the time and wins only 42.3% of tiebreaks
- H2H: Zverev leads 1-0, after a 7-6 6-1 6-3 win in the Roland Garros quarter-finals this year
- Form score: a dead heat at 71.9 vs 70.9
Our Read
The market makes Zverev a 68% favourite, and we land on the same number. On paper the fast court suits his serve, and Jodar's own service games are where he can be broken. But Zverev has lost two in a row, and neither player has played in almost two weeks, so we don't want to back either side before the match. One number stands out: as a favourite in this price range, Zverev has gone to three sets in 12 of 22 best-of-three matches. That suggests Jodar can take a set, but the market already prices that line about right. Nothing on the main lines gives us an edge, so we'll watch how the first set goes.
ATP Finals · Round Robin · 20:30 CET
Ben Shelton vs Arthur Fils
Market odds: Shelton 1.60 | Fils 2.52
Form & Context
Shelton reached the Paris final last week. He won three straight three-setters, against Rinderknech, Paul and Van Assche, then lost 6-7 5-7 to Alcaraz last Sunday. He is 10-2 indoors this year, including the Dallas title, and has had seven days to recover. Fils is making his debut after winning Cincinnati and Barcelona. His fitness is the question. He retired against Fritz in the Basel quarter-finals on 30 October. He came back in Paris five days later and beat Machac, then lost to Fritz 3-6 4-6. He hasn't played since.
Tale of the Tape
- Shelton: holds 89.8% of service games with 0.74 aces per game and saves 69.3% of break points, but breaks in only 14.6% of return games. Nine of his 12 indoor matches this year went to three sets
- Fils: holds 86.0% and breaks 21.9% of the time, and wins 62.1% of tiebreaks. He has won all 32 completed best-of-three matches this year in which he took the first set
- Form score: Shelton 69.0 vs Fils 63.0, a small edge but not a big one
Our Read
The market makes Shelton a 61% favourite, and we agree. He has the better indoor record and the serve for this court, and Fils's fitness is a real doubt. But Shelton lost his last match in straight sets after a long week, so we won't back him before the match. Again, the first set looks like the key. Fils hasn't lost all year after winning the opener. Shelton has come back to win after losing the first set 11 times in 19 tries, which is one of the best records on tour. If Fils wins the first set, he has history on his side. If Shelton falls behind, he has come back from that position many times. We're waiting for the first set.
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