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ATP Brussels — Reilly Opelka vs Benjamin Bonzi
🧠 Form & Context
Reilly Opelka (#64; 211 cm)
- 2025: 28–24 overall | Indoors 2–2 | Hard 14–11 | Grass 7–5 | Clay 5–6
- Peaks: Brisbane QF (d. Djokovic); ’s-Hertogenbosch SF (d. Medvedev, Jarry); Toronto & Cincinnati R3.
- Recent: L Bonzi in Shanghai 1R (6–7, 4–6); Laver Cup L to Ruud; USO 1R vs Alcaraz.
- Profile: massive first serve; first-strike patterns thrive indoors.
Benjamin Bonzi (#48; 185 cm)
- 2025: 21–23 overall | Indoors 1–2 | Hard 15–13 | Grass 3–4 | Clay 2–4
- Peaks: Cincinnati R16 (d. Musetti, Tsitsipas); USO R3 (epic R1 d. Medvedev; d. Giron); Wimbledon R1 d. Medvedev.
- Recent: Shanghai 2R (l. Diallo) after beating Opelka; Beijing 1R (l. Marozsan).
- Profile: compact baseliner; clean timing off both wings.
H2H: 1–1 (Bonzi d. Opelka, Shanghai ’25; Opelka d. Bonzi, Bordeaux CH ’18).
🔍 Match Breakdown
Serve dynamics: Opelka’s delivery is the single biggest force here — expect short points, many unreturned serves, and constant scoreboard heat. Bonzi serves accurately, but must protect seconds to avoid Opelka’s +1 forehand strikes.
Return patterns: Bonzi’s reads shine in baseline exchanges, yet indoors he’ll see fewer neutral starts. Best path: block/chip returns deep middle to deny forehand looks, then work BH cross to open space.
Rally tolerance vs first-strike: Longer rallies tilt to Bonzi’s BH control and change-of-pace; sub-5-shot points tilt to Opelka — especially on quick indoor courts.
Pressure games: Bonzi’s return looks at 4–4/5–5 are pivotal — converting the rare half-chance is everything. Opelka must avoid the mid-set dip on seconds that hurt him in Shanghai.
Tiebreak watch: Profiles scream breakers. Opelka’s wide-T alternation in TBs is tough to crack; Bonzi needs an early mini-break via a blocked return at the feet.
🔮 Prediction
Shanghai leans Bonzi, but faster indoor conditions tilt toward the bigger server. Expect razor-thin margins, very few breaks, and at least one tiebreak. If Opelka keeps second-serve points afloat and cleans up the +1 forehand, he’s got the slight “revenge” edge.
Pick: Opelka in three tight sets. Upset route for Bonzi: lengthen points, target the Opelka backhand early, and seize the first breaker.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Reilly Opelka | Benjamin Bonzi |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking / Height | #64 / 211 cm | #48 / 185 cm |
| 2025 Record | 28–24 | 21–23 |
| 2025 Hard / Indoors | 14–11 / 2–2 | 15–13 / 1–2 |
| Recent Highlights | Brisbane QF (d. Djokovic); ’s-Hertogenbosch SF; Toronto & Cincy R3 | Cincy R16 (d. Tsitsipas); USO R3 (d. Medvedev) |
| Recent Notes | Lost to Bonzi in Shanghai; Laver Cup L to Ruud | Shanghai 2R (l. Diallo) after d. Opelka |
| H2H | 1–1 (most recent: Bonzi d. Opelka, Shanghai ’25) | |
| Primary Edge | Unreturnables + +1 FH indoors | BH control; return reads in rallies |
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