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ATP Almaty — Fabian Marozsan vs Luca Nardi
🧠 Form & Context
Fabian Marozsan (HUN, #52, righty)
- 2025: 27–24 overall | Hard 13–12 | Indoors 1–1
- Highlights: Beijing QF (l. Sinner); pushed Fritz to two TBs in Shanghai after beating Wawrinka.
- Notable 2025 wins: Rublev (Rome), Auger-Aliassime (Toronto).
- 🔁 H2H: leads 3–0 vs Nardi (FO ’25 straights; Hangzhou ’24; Cagliari CH ’23).
Luca Nardi (ITA, #88, righty)
- 2025: 28–27 overall | Hard 14–13 | Indoors 6–3
- Highlights: Shanghai 1R win over Ofner, tight TB loss to Mpetshi Perricard; Cincinnati R16 (d. Shapovalov; led vs Menšík before Alcaraz next).
- US Open: 1R loss to Macháč.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Patterns & matchups: Marozsan’s heavy FH change-of-direction and BH stability have consistently bothered Nardi across surfaces (3–0 H2H). Expect early FH control from Marozsan to disrupt Nardi’s baseline rhythm.
Surface context: Nardi’s 6–3 indoors points to comfort under the roof — serve + first-strike, shorter exchanges. Marozsan’s indoor sample is small (1–1) but he’s battle-hardened at higher event levels (Beijing, Shanghai).
Scoreline texture: Both have lived in tight sets lately. If Nardi sustains a high first-serve %, breakers are live; otherwise Marozsan’s return depth and rally tolerance tilt the long games his way.
Upset levers (for Nardi): Quick holds, protect BH patterns (avoid short BH-to-BH that invites Marozsan’s FH DTL), commit to proactive indoor first-strike — stretch points selectively, not passively.
🔮 Prediction
Marozsan carries the clearer tactical edge and the psychological cushion of a clean H2H. Nardi’s indoor record suggests resistance — at least one set could hinge on a few points — but over the balance of play Marozsan’s weight of shot and return quality should prevail.
Pick: Marozsan in two tight sets (tiebreak likely).
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Fabian Marozsan | Luca Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking / Hand | #52 / Right | #88 / Right |
| 2025 Record | 27–24 | 28–27 |
| 2025 Hard | 13–12 | 14–13 |
| 2025 Indoors | 1–1 | 6–3 |
| Recent Highlights | Beijing QF; TBs vs Fritz (Shanghai) | Shanghai TB loss after Ofner win; Cincy R16 |
| H2H | Marozsan leads 3–0 (FO ’25; Hangzhou ’24; Cagliari CH ’23) | |
| Primary Edge | FH change-of-direction, return depth | Serve + first-strike indoors |
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