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ATP Almaty — Bernard Tomic vs Corentin Moutet
🧠 Form & Context
Bernard Tomic (AUS, #168, righty; 196 cm)
- 2025: 40–30 | Hard 27–21 | Indoors 2–0 | Grass 5–2 | Clay 6–7
- Qualified here: d. Yevseyev (3), d. Huesler in two TBs.
- Recent: Jinan CH QF (l. Mochizuki).
- Trend: many TBs/deciders; serve a weapon; fitness/tempo can swing mid-match. A few mid-summer retirements, but completing matches this month.
Corentin Moutet (FRA, #38, lefty; 175 cm)
- 2025: 34–25 | Hard 15–12 | Grass 9–4 | Clay 8–9 (Indoors: —)
- Summer surge: Mallorca F; Washington SF (d. Medvedev); Beijing R16 (d. Griekspoor, l. Zverev in 3).
- Also Hangzhou SF; Shanghai 2R (l. Tien after 1-set lead).
- Trend: variety + grit; handles pace; confidence solid.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Tomic’s pop indoors: First-strike tennis and a flat backhand can really bite under a roof. With a high first-serve %, he can force TB pressure and keep sets on serve.
Moutet’s answers: Lefty patterns into the Tomic backhand and constant tempo changes (height/spin) are built to frustrate. He’s been beating better opposition and should make enough returns to lengthen exchanges.
Rallies & legs: Longer rallies tilt to Moutet’s consistency and movement edge; Tomic’s danger window is front-running behind the first ball.
Context: Scheduling leans Frenchman — Tomic comes in hot from qualies after a heavy recent workload; Moutet had time to reset earlier in the week.
🔮 Prediction
Moutet to control the balance of rallies and extract errors once neutral. Tomic’s serve likely makes at least one set tight, but the higher floor is on the French side.
Pick: Moutet in two tight sets (one tiebreak likely).
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Bernard Tomic | Corentin Moutet |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking / Hand / Height | #168 / Right / 196 cm | #38 / Left / 175 cm |
| 2025 Record | 40–30 | 34–25 |
| 2025 Hard | 27–21 | 15–12 |
| 2025 Indoors | 2–0 | — |
| Recent Notes | Qualified (Yevseyev; Huesler via 2 TBs); Jinan CH QF | Mallorca F; Washington SF; Beijing R16; Hangzhou SF |
| Primary Edge | Serve + first strike indoors | Return depth; rally tolerance; lefty patterns |
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