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ATP Almaty — Alexander Shevchenko vs Corentin Moutet
🧠 Form & Context
Alexander Shevchenko (No. 91, 🇰🇿)
- 🏟️ Indoors 2025: 1–1 | Hard: 10–12.
- ✅ Comes off a clutch R1 over Djere with back-to-back TBs (7–6, 7–6).
- 📈 Volume year: SF Chengdu (d. Daniel, Mpetshi Perricard); strong Challenger runs.
- 🏠 Home conditions; tends to play TB-heavy sets when the first serve lands.
Corentin Moutet (No. 41, 🇫🇷)
- 🏟️ Indoors 2025: 1–0 | Hard: 15–12.
- 🌏 Asian swing rhythm: Beijing R16 (pushed Zverev to 3); Shanghai 2R.
- 🔥 Washington SF in July (wins over Medvedev/Evans); Mallorca grass finalist.
- 🔢 H2H: leads 3–0 (FO ’24 in 4; Beijing ’24 qualies; Szczecin ’22).
🔍 Match Breakdown
Patterns & First Strike: Shevchenko’s best look = first-serve + forehand finish. Indoors help him shorten points and protect serve enough to force long sets.
Lefty Disruption & Variety: Moutet’s lefty serve patterns, pace changes, and BH cross depth blunt pace and test Shevchenko’s rally tolerance. When Corentin’s first-serve % is high and he gets FH into ad-court patterns, he dictates geometry.
Clutch / H2H: The 0–3 H2H is meaningful—Moutet has repeatedly dragged Shevchenko into awkward rhythm battles and won key points. Alex must avoid cat-and-mouse exchanges and keep ball above net height early.
Market vs Fair (model blend): Prior hard-court model (L52 hold/break inputs) had Moutet ~1.48 fair / Shevchenko ~3.06 fair; Over 2.5 Sets ~2.12 fair. Current prices ~1.51 / 2.51 ⇒ no clear edge; slight lean to Moutet unless drift appears.
🔮 Prediction
Moutet’s variety and lefty patterns have historically bothered Shevchenko, and his recent level is steadier. Indoors + home support narrow the gap, but unless Shevchenko red-lines serve + first ball for long stretches, the matchup still leans French.
Pick: Moutet in two tight sets (tiebreak likely).
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Alexander Shevchenko | Corentin Moutet |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Indoors | Hard | 1–1 | 10–12 | 1–0 | 15–12 |
| Recent headline | d. Djere (7–6, 7–6) | Beijing R16; pushed Zverev to 3 |
| Serve/first strike | Big first + FH finish; TB-prone | Lefty patterns; ad-court FH dictates |
| Rally tolerance | Better when points are short | Thrives in change-up, cat-and-mouse rallies |
| Home factor | Almaty lift; familiar courts | Travels fine; form steady |
| Head-to-Head | Moutet leads 3–0 | |
| Model fair (prev.) | ~3.06 | ~1.48 |
| Over 2.5 Sets (fair) | ~2.12 (TBs live) | |
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