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ATP Brussels — Jiri Lehecka vs Gilles-Arnaud Bailly
🧠 Form & Context
Jiri Lehecka (No. 17, 23, 🇨🇿, right)
2025: 38–19 | Hard 22–10 | Indoors 1–1.
- ✅ US Open QF (d. Collignon, Mannarino; l. Alcaraz); Davis Cup wins vs Tiafoe & Fritz.
- ✅ Shanghai: d. Halys, Shapovalov; tight vs Rinderknech.
- 💥 Proven first-strike game under a roof; top-20 class week in, week out.
Gilles-Arnaud Bailly (No. 247, 20, 🇧🇪, right)
2025: 65–22 | Hard 20–8 | Indoors 3–0 (this week).
- ✅ Through qualies (d. Trungelliti, Royer) + R1 upset over Altmaier.
- 🏠 Home crowd tailwind; confidence from heavy ITF/Challenger volume and recent finals.
🔍 Match Breakdown
First-strike axis: Lehecka’s pace off both wings plus a reliable first serve should earn short balls on this surface. If he lands a strong 1st-serve clip early, Bailly gets pushed into reactive patterns.
Bailly’s pathways: Keep first-serve % north of his norm; use the backhand redirect into Lehecka’s forehand corner; sprinkle in forward moves to avoid baseline shootouts. He’s match-sharp after three wins in three days — but that workload can bite against a top-20 athlete.
Key swing points: Early pressure games on Bailly’s serve; Lehecka’s +1 forehand execution; crowd energy if sets tighten (tiebreak potential is real).
🔮 Prediction
Pick: Lehecka 2–0. Ceiling, serve+forehand patterns, and recent elite reps make him the deserved favorite. Bailly can hang in patches — especially if he turns this into a pure first-strike contest — but sustaining that level for two sets without dips is a tall ask.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Jiri Lehecka | G.-A. Bailly |
|---|---|---|
| Form trend | Top-20 level, deep Slam & Masters reps | Surging through qualies + R1 upset |
| Surface fit (Indoor Hard) | Explosive first strike; serve sets up +1 | Comfortable but less free power |
| Serve protection | High when 1st-serve lands | Needs above-norm 1st-serve% |
| Rally tolerance | Wins with pace & court position | Better mixing in early takes & net |
| Intangibles | Experience edge at this level | 🏠 Home crowd boost; short rest load |
Scoreline lean: Lehecka in straight sets, with at least one tight set likely.
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