ATP Geneva – Sebastian Ofner vs Nuno Borges

ATP Geneva – Sebastian Ofner vs Nuno Borges

🧠 Form & Context

🇦🇹 Sebastian Ofner
📈 A 13–6 clay record in 2025 reflects strong, stable form.
🔥 Has won 6 of his last 7 matches, including straight-set wins over Gakhov and Opelka this week.
📊 Backed by elite stats: 68% clay win rate in 2025, with high marks in straight-set win % and first-set success.
🎾 Feeling good in Geneva: Reached the R16 here last year and is now one step from his first ATP QF since Kitzbühel 2023.

🇵🇹 Nuno Borges
🎢 Slightly erratic this spring with a 6–5 clay record, but only 4 wins in his last 10 matches.
💥 Needed three sets to beat Michelsen in R1 and has suffered clay losses to Tsitsipas, Fucsovics, Altmaier, and Carballes Baena.
🧮 Suboptimal clay stats: Only 9% of his 2025 clay wins have come in straight sets—he’s often forced into long battles.
📍 Geneva debut: First main draw appearance at the event.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Ofner enters as the more reliable and confident clay-court operator. He starts strong (74% Set 1 win rate) and thrives when playing from ahead—something Borges struggles to do consistently.

While Borges is more natural on clay than Ofner, his 2025 clay stats and recent performances reveal a player vulnerable to power, pace, and early deficits. Ofner’s game is built on baseline aggression and smart patterns—exactly the style that has caused Borges trouble this season.

Their only previous meeting (2023 US Open) saw Ofner win in 4 sets on a hard court. On clay, with both players more seasoned, the advantage still leans to the Austrian due to superior execution and physical form.

🔮 Prediction

Ofner’s momentum and data edge make him the clear favorite. Borges might push him into close sets, but unless Ofner has an off-day, he should control the tempo from start to finish.
🧩 Prediction: Sebastian Ofner in 2 tight sets — expect efficient baseline play, early leads, and a composed finish.